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a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul Krugman predicts most crypto projects will look like Pets.com by 2033
“My guess is, however, that I think I don't actually believe that we're at the dawn of a new age. I actually believe that we're at the that that most of this 10 years back, 15 years, 15 years from now, it will look a lot like Pets.com.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 31:02 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Significant probability Bitcoin's value eventually drops to zero
“Now, I'm not a hundred percent sure of that, but maybe, ah, ah, but I think that there's a certainly a, I would say a quite significant probability that the whole thing just drops to zero, ah, because I have not yet seen any reason why this has to be a valuabl…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 23:40 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman says crypto offers no unique utility over traditional methods
“It's not at all clear even now that there's anything that you can do with crypto that you can't do other ways. But, you know, obviously if something comes along that I, I'm happy to see it, but I don't see it now.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 2:41 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman argues Bitcoin mining energy efficiency gains are self-defeating
“Bitcoin is what people are owning now in large value, and any gains in energy efficiency just gets swallowed up very quickly. You just push further into that margin, and it, ah, it, it's, ah, it's a self-defeating form of progress.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 6:36 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Prediction Didn’t hold up
Paul Krugman predicts only one or two cryptocurrencies will survive
“There will not be 1600 cryptocurrencies out there. There will be one or two.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 24:06 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Krugman: Crypto uses advanced tech to regress monetary history 300 years
“From the point of view of monetary economists, we're exploiting cutting edge, ah, computer science, ah, to set the clock back 300 years.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 7:30 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Opinion
Krugman: Crypto replaces institutional trust with digital gold-biting
“So, the interesting thing about all of this shift to cryptocurrency is it's saying, let's throw away This technology, it's more, it's a social technology rather than a, you know, a mathematical technology, but let's throw away the social technology of repeated…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 11:15 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Governments will quickly strip away crypto freedom if Bitcoin becomes serious
“And if Bitcoin became really a serious, well, ok, it you'd be amazed at how quickly whatever freedom you think you're getting via the blockchain would disappear.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 15:30 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Bitcoin mining costs will always expand to extreme levels
“Bitcoin circulation will always expand to drive the cost of producing a Bitcoin up to the point of being insane.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 16:58 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Cryptocurrency shows no sign of becoming real money
“The one thing I will say is so far cryptocurrency shows no sign whatsoever Of becoming currency. Whatever it's doing, it's not money.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 25:12 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Prediction Held up
Paul Krugman predicts blockchain will not undermine Amazon or tech incumbents
“I don't believe that blockchain is going to undermine Amazon or any of these people, because The reason I use Amazon is not because of power, or the, not the power of Amazon, but the power of laziness.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 24:12 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman says uninformed retail investors are getting ripped off in crypto
“My barber actually did ask me if he should put all of his money in Bitcoin. So this is not, this stuff is not hypothetical, it's for real, and there's a lot of, Uninformed people getting ripped off.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 27:45 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Krugman: Only South Sudan and Venezuela have inflation over 50%
“So let me give you a comprehensive list of the countries that currently have inflation exceeding 50% a year. South Sudan and Venezuela. End of story.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 9:14 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Insight
Krugman: Severe monetary crises are political issues technology cannot fix
“Cryptocurrency is not going to put food in the stores when there's no food in the stores, right? It's not, it's a, it's not fund, Venezuela's problem is not fundamentally a monetary problem, and most really severe monetary problems are not. Most really severe …”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:51 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Opinion
Krugman: Best bull case for Bitcoin is acting like cash hoards
“The best argument I could possibly be persuaded for on, on the question of Bitcoin Is that Bitcoin will become like gold or high denomination notes. It'll be something that people hold in their stashes in, in in Buenos Aires, or actually high denomination euro…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 20:51 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Insight
Krugman: Gold and cash are backstopped by real-world utility
“What I would say, however, is that both gold and hundred dollar bills have a, now, first time I said this, I said they, they're, they are tethered to reality. And then it turned out that that was a bad word to use when talking about, to crypto people. So, so t…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 21:31 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman sees no sign Bitcoin is becoming a widespread payment method
“There's very little sign that it is becoming any kind of widespread means of payment, and that's 10 years on.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 4:51 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paul Krugman says Secret Service enforcement prevents high-quality currency counterfeiting
“Mostly the main obstacle to people producing high quality counterfeit, ah, dollar bills is the fact that the Treasury Department, the Secret Service will track you down”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 7:45 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman says crypto will struggle to surpass traditional institutional trust
“We developed this, you know, socially ingenious thing, which is enduring institutions that have a reputational stake in, ah, in safeguarding the value of the, ah, of the tokens they create, and, we're throwing all of that out, and it's gonna be really, really …”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 10:37 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman argues government interest in blockchain is driven by trendiness
“Government officials are as, ah, ah, you know, they read the same magazines, they, ah, no one reads magazines. They read the same social media as everyone else, and, ah, and want to be trendy. And, ah, you know, the trendiness is a very big factor in all of th…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:28 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman says 2000s financial innovation was mostly regulatory arbitrage
“The high tide of financial innovation in, in, in other respects, non-crypto financial innovation, was in a period roughly, you know, 2000 to 2007, and the great bulk of that innovation was essentially just doing an end run around regulations.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 19:52 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman calls Katie Haun's defense of crypto the best he's heard
“And this was the best, far and away the best defense of crypto that I've heard.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 38:56 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Insight
Krugman: Fiat currency value is backstopped by taxes and state force
“What keeps most currencies valuable is the belief that, well, two things. The belief that governments will exercise restraint in issuing currency, ah, and the fact that legally you can pay taxes. So if you like, the thing, whole thing is backstopped by, ah, by…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 4:38 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Krugman: Bitcoin transactions are expensive and difficult to execute
“And it is in fact expensive to make transactions. It's, ah, the, ah, the actual implementation of the blockchain is, ah, ah, is one that is hard. It's hard to do transactions in Bitcoin.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 7:04 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Hyperinflation is always tied to political and social collapse
“It's, hyperinflation never happens just because governments are untrustworthy. It's always associated with political and social collapse.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:38 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Proliferation of altcoins will plunge existing cryptocurrency values
“If people, now, one thing that could happen is that people introduce alternative cryptocurrencies. But of course, if they do that, then we have a much larger supply of cryptocurrency and the price, the value of the existing cryptocurrencies plunges.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 17:46 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Paul Krugman estimates daily Bitcoin transaction volume is under $1 billion
“It looks like there's something like five hundred million to a billion dollars worth of transactions, ah, a day in Bitcoin.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 4:17 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Assertion Supported
Paul Krugman notes Bitcoin daily transaction volume peaked in early 2018
“As best we can tell, the dollar value of bitcoin transactions peaked at the beginning of this year, and that's actually fallen substantially since then.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 4:40 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul Krugman predicts governments may issue state cryptocurrencies to protect seigniorage
“You can imagine the governments, if they start to see the seniorage eroded by crypto, will say, okay, well, we'll offer you government-validated crypto, ah, which, not sure at some point why that's any better than government-validated other stuff, but, ah, The…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:10 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Insight
Paul Krugman says anomalies in established theories are usually bad data
“When you hit a real anomaly in in what you think is a well-established point of view you should study it, and most of the time the answer, the explanation turns out to be bad data,”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 38:30 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Insight
Krugman: Money is a transactional lubricant, not a productive asset
“So money, first thing to say about money is remember always that money is only incidentally an asset. It's not something that produces in and of itself. Money is a lubricant. Money is something you use to facilitate transactions in the real economy.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 1:27 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krugman: The history of money is making it increasingly frictionless
“And the history of money has been one of making money increasingly invisible, increasingly frictionless. Has been one of pushing it into the background.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 1:52 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Monetary evolution naturally moves toward a cashless digital society
“The direction of that evolution, if you're asking where, where would that lead you to think we were going, it would be towards a cashless society. It would be towards one where, ah, money was really just an accounting entry someplace, and in which payments wer…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 5:49 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Supported
Krugman: Bitcoin consumes real resources like computing power and electricity
“The striking thing about Bitcoin is that it sets up a system in which, ah, first of all, ah, the creation of this currency involves a lot of real resources. We're actually spending a lot of resources now computing power or electricity to generate this, much as…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 6:38 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Insight
Krugman: Reputation is a social technology that creates repeated games
“One way to think about that is reputation is a technology. It's, we solve a lot of problems in the economy by turning what could be one shot gains in which people literally take the money and run and turning them into repeated games in which people have an inc…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 10:28 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Insight
Krugman: High remittance costs stem from market power and regulation
“In fact, I know it's not inherent in the technology of conventional banking. I suspect it has to do with a combination of market power, but also largely, you know, government enforced barriers, particularly government barriers that reinforce that market power.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 13:42 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krugman: Gold is not money or a medium of exchange
“Now, gold is not money. Not in any of the real senses. Nobody, you know, go into a store and try and pay your bill with a bar of gold. It ain't gonna work. Gold is not in fact a medium of exchange. It's not something you can in fact use for transactions.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 18:48 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Opinion
Paul Krugman: Haun gave the best defense of crypto he has heard
“Catherine, who gave, I think, that's the best defense of crypto that I've heard”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 35:57 3 Common Myths People Have About Crypto
a16z Assertion Supported
Paul Krugman says US currency expansion yields tens of billions annually
“The gradual expansion of currency in circulation gives the US government some tens of billions of dollars of revenue.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:05 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
a16z Assertion Supported
Krugman: US cash-to-GDP ratio has risen since 1980
“If you look at the United States, the ratio of currency in circulation to GDP fell steadily as far back as we can tell up until about And then it started rising again. And we actually have substantially more, ah, dollar cash in circulation relative to GDP than…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 19:36 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
a16z Assertion Supported
Krugman: Two-thirds of high-denomination US dollars are held abroad
“Indirect estimates suggest that something like two thirds of those high denomination dollar notes are held outside the United States. They're being held as hoards of value, and they're being held as hoards of value even though you can't actually do business wi…”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 20:25 A Skeptic's View of Crypto (from the Point of View of Monetary Economics)
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