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20VC Opinion
Östberg: The food delivery capital bubble did not advance the industry
“I don't think it moved industry forward that much. I think it just drove some non-sustainable behavior and same here.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 45:52 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Large competitor balance sheets are not a threat in food delivery
“I don't think that the balance sheet matters. I don't know. In the end, that is not what limits any compared to spend money. It's going to be the return that is going to limit a compared to spend money. So it's going to be hard for a door dash or Uber or somew…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 51:37 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Chinese and US tech companies circumvent or ignore European regulation
“There's a lot of regulation that is circumvented or ignored by Chinese and US companies.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:02:31 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Average companies deploying AI will benefit more than the Magnificent Seven
“I think Gen AI or the largest beneficiary of AI is, is going to be the average company deploying it and not necessarily the mag seven the ones who are building it. I think that is probably contrarian In this, at least if I look at the stock market, we will see…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:04:59 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Delivery Hero was overvalued at its peak and is undervalued today
“We were definitely overvalued, and we are probably undervalued today.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 0:40 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Founders should accept equity dilution over taking on debt at peak
“It's better to dilute and not, not think too much about it.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 6:10 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg: Delivery Hero sold its German home market due to M&A regulations
“And back then, so this was 2017, and I felt that the market is not as big as it looks. It has a strong comparator there, and there will be no way of consolidate that market later on, given the regulation around M&A and so on. So I think, I thought this is goin…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 10:40 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Food delivery is not a winner-take-all market
“No, I don't think it's a winner-takes-all market. I probably changed my view there. Proven wrong, frankly.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 12:12 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Deliveroo is undervalued by public markets and will continue growing profitably
“And we can argue if Deliveroo is correctly valued today, I would argue they are too low value today. I don't know. It's a profitable business. It's growing and will continue to grow and it will make more money. So, so I do think that it's clear value in that b…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 13:22 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Delivery Hero's success is 80% internal execution and 20% competition
“I think what I've learned over the years is 80% our own execution. That is going to matter for how big we get and how much money we make, and then maybe 20% driven by competition.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 16:24 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Second-place food delivery players can be profitable if they reach scale
“So yeah, as long as you get scale, you will make money regardless if you're number two or number one. Of course, if you're number two, you will have less scale. You will make less money, but you will still be able to make money.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 16:36 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Östberg: Quick commerce will eventually exceed 50% of Delivery Hero's business
“And I think right now that's a big part of our business and long term is going to be more than 50% of our business. So larger than food for sure.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 20:03 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Delivery Hero lost the vast majority of its $200M investment in Gorillas
“Yeah, we put in close to two hundred million dollars. We got some of it back, a small portion back. But yeah, it was, most of that was lost.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 20:58 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Östberg: Delivery Hero was disrupted by Rappi in Colombia
“We didn't do that fast enough in, in Colombia, as a good example, and we get disrupted by Rappi. So then the cohorts deteriorated big time.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 39:06 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Östberg: Glovo will outgrow the rest of Delivery Hero's overall business
“I think that was an incredible acquisition only diluting Yeah, a few percent less than a 10% for a business that is, is clearly gonna outgrow the rest of the business.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 41:52 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: The COVID-19 pandemic was ultimately not good for Delivery Hero
“So I think effectively in the end, COVID was not a good thing for us.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 46:26 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Delivery Hero cut $100M–$200M by exiting Germany and Japan in late 2021
“Back in end of 2021, We felt a little bit worried about the market. We shut down Germany and Japan. We cut a 102 hundred million out of our budget before the year even started.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 6:32 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Selling Delivery Hero's German home market made the company stronger
“I think the same selling our home market was clearly a contrarian decision. Maybe some investors thought it was okay, but I think in the company there was a very contrarian view to sell your home market. But I think that that made us incredibly strong.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 10:11 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Just Eat, Deliveroo, and Uber Eats are all profitable in the UK
“Just Eat, Deliveroo and Uber Eats, and they all make money in the UK, I would say decently so.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 12:39 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Driving organizational speed is more important for CEOs than capital allocation
“I do agree that the best CEOs are exceptionally good capital allocators, but I don't think it's the most important part of a CEO's job. I think it is an important job, but by far not the most important. I think more important is to drive the culture. You drive…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 17:57 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Östberg: Glovo's business margin per order will reach 10% to 13%
“So in the end, we know that the margin on the business is going to grow to 10, 10 to 13% over time.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 40:08 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Östberg: Glovo was losing $330M annually when Delivery Hero acquired it
“And global, we lost three hundred thirty million. When we acquired it”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 40:44 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Unprofitable delivery subsidies only attract temporary low-value discount hunters
“If someone is willing to make a loss per order without that trajectory for getting profits, They might get some of the discount hunters and hunters, and the low value customer base might go to that competitor, but it, but it's not sustainable. So eventually th…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 44:42 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Almost every geographic market in the world can work for food delivery
“But I don't think it's about a market. I think every, I don't know, almost every market in the world would probably work with this. It's just a matter of getting that product market fit right.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 55:11 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: The best expansion markets often require years of losses to scale
“So in the end, sometimes it could be that the best markets are the ones that's going to cost a lot of money for a number of years because you want to invest to grow it. So it's not necessarily that the best market will be fastest to break even. It could be tha…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 56:18 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg: Delivery Hero generated multiple 100x and 1,000x returns on early acquisitions
“So, so we have a lot of hundred times returns or even a thousand times return, but most of them were small businesses.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 59:33 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: European regulations place an unfair burden on local tech companies
“And they all make sense and they have good intention, but in collectively, it's just a big burden on, on, on those European companies. And I think a little bit unfairly that they are not the same criteria for other companies competing in Europe. So I think thi…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:01:30 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: The European Union's Digital Markets Act is good regulation
“I think DMA is an example of good regulation.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:02:53 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Delivery Hero scaled Thailand to 400k daily orders unsustainably in one year
“If you take our Thailand business, we scaled from a couple of thousand orders a day up to 400,000 orders a day in less than a year, but it was not sustainable.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC What-if
Östberg: Delivery Hero should have raised equity over debt at $35B valuation
“If we would have known that we would have cut costs A lot faster earlier. We would have probably taken down risk a little bit. We would have saved as much money as we can. We probably would have raised equity instead of debt during the time when we thought tha…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 4:43 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Antitrust regulations prevent food delivery consolidation in the UK
“Now, I don't think that there is, it's possible to consolidate UK and a few other market due to high trust. Reasons. So you can probably not consult at Deliveroo and just eat the Uber and Deliveroo and so on.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 13:44 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Delivery Hero became market leader in Spain, Italy, Poland, and Norway
“We entered as a number two and number three, number four player in those markets. And we are now the largest.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 15:35 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Östberg: Delivery Hero's $200M Gorillas loss was only 0.5% of its market cap
“Yeah, so, so, and of course, going back to this two hundred million mistake also done here that we were a thirty five billion company. So this was Back then, less than a percent. It was a half a percent of our market cap that we felt like we are willing to tak…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 24:42 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Delivery Hero grew Talabat from 60,000 to 20 million monthly orders
“So if I give some of the examples was acquired when the company did 60,000 orders per month. And today it does maybe twenty million orders per month, or close to at least.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 32:57 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Uber proved food delivery companies can succeed as late entrants
“Uber and others entered the market and proved that you can start this business way later than we did”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 35:19 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg: Delivery Hero currently prefers organic building over M&A acquisitions
“I think if you look at things right now, we probably prefer to build.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 35:29 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Delivery Hero's Turkey tech migration took two years to fully recover from
“And we had to make a full massive migration that took nine months. Because you had to move everything at once. That took a big hit on the business and it took two years to fully recover from that.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 50:42 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg: Delivery Hero achieved a 100x return on its Talabat acquisition
“Look at Talabat. It was a little bit more expensive, but they were doing, yeah, seven to 8000 monthly orders, and now that is a ten billion business. So that is a hundred times return or so.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 59:19 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg: Delivery Hero shares responsibility for Glovo's regulatory challenges
“I cannot blame Oscar for challenges that he is not responsible for that has affected him, but where we have collectively taken decisions that we think are right, then of course we also take shared responsibility on those topics.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:04:24 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Östberg: Public AI narratives are cosmetic compared to actual operational efficiency
“If you have a story or not, that's a little bit Cosmetics. I don't care for that cosmetic so much. I care for actually leveraging and truly make our business better for it.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:05:45 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2035
Östberg: Amazon stock gains will come solely from business growth, not multiple expansion
“I'm still a big fan of Amazon, but of course the valuation of those companies have gone up a lot. So you cannot count on margin expansion or multiple expansion. Sorry. So, so the growth in those stocks will only be, or the value growth in those stocks would ba…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:06:16 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Drones could handle 25% of deliveries within 10 years
“It already reached a point where you can actually make it work economically. And in some places regulation is also a part of it. It will take time to scale it. But I think Over time, I know, 25% of delivery could be done by drones, but it might be 10 years, so…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:08:26 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Östberg: Ground delivery robotics will scale faster and larger than aerial drones
“I would say robotics will be faster. So and probably be able to cover a larger portion of business.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:08:51 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Östberg made and rapidly lost a stock market fortune in the 1990s
“I remember back in the nineties, I was investing in the stock market. I thought it was amazing. I made a lot of money. I lost it very quickly and realized that maybe I'm not that great after all.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 3:34 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Östberg: Founders are never as good or bad as market conditions suggest
“You, you're not as good as you think you are in the good times and probably not as bad as you think in the bad times.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 4:09 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Delivery Hero lost $6M on its first logistics initiative before rebuilding
“The first initiative we did, we lost six million. It looked terrible. And most people have probably given up there, but we shut down that company and rebuilt it again and invested the 1000 of million in logistics.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 9:45 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Delivery Hero took years to reach per-order break-even in logistics and quick commerce
“So for example, with logistic, it took a couple of years before we were broke even per order basis in, in, in logistic, same with DMART and the whole quick commerce. It took us a couple of years to be break even per order basis, but we didn't, it was not becau…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 43:26 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Östberg: Onlinepizza was fully bootstrapped and profitable almost from day one
“I was part of starting was online pizza. It was a completely bootstrap, no investors at all. So we were break even almost on the first day of our business.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 57:34 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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