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CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Dawn predicts secondary market volume will hit $400B-$500B within five years
“So it would not surprise me if the GP side of this market is 200 to two hundred and fifty billion dollars in five years time. So if you add that onto what we think is a natural growth also, In the LP market, getting to four to five hundred billion is reasonabl…”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 40:24 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Dawn: PE secondary market volume in 2024 will top $130 billion record
“2021, which is a high watermark up to this point is about one 30. And I suspect we will beat that number this year.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 12:54 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dawn: Single-asset continuation fund syndication market will grow rapidly by 2029
“Plus, I think when the new entrants I've just identified, the types of group that start their secondary funds just focused on single asset continuation funds, then we anticipate the syndicate market for these transactions will grow rapidly, because you'll have…”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 27:43 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private equity distributions to AUM are near historic lows
“In this environment where distributions have almost been at historic lows compared to assets under management”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 18:21 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Buyout secondaries trade in the nineties while venture trades at 60-80 cents
“Good quality buyouts, probably in the nineties. Venture and growth, very much name specific. So some managers still very difficult to access. So you pay an access premium, but probably more like 60 to 80 cents on the dollar because there's a little bit of skep…”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 19:05 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Single-company GP-led secondaries usually transact around NAV
“Generally on the GP side, That on a single company, it usually transacts around the GP's NAV. Typically not at a discount, but if it is, it's at a modest discount.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 19:28 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Traditional buyout managers are launching single-asset continuation secondary funds
“What we're seeing right now, I would say a fairly new development is traditional buyout managers actually looking to set up their own secondary funds, just focused on investing in single asset continuation funds.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 21:41 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dawn doubts private credit secondaries will match private equity secondary size
“So will it be as big as a private equity market? I doubt it”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 29:02 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private credit secondaries are currently trading in the nineties
“In the current market, private credit is probably trading in the nineties.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 29:05 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Most private equity GPs exit portfolios at a 25% NAV premium
“Most GPs exit their portfolios around 25% premium to their NAV.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 35:43 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Dawn: 10 to 20 GP-focused secondary funds will launch in next two years
“It wouldn't be surprised in the next couple of years, there's 10 to 20 new secondary funds focused on the GP side.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 40:13 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dawn: '40 Act funds comprise ~10% of current secondary market buyers
“What we're finding is maybe 10% of our buyers right now, maybe slightly more, but what we are seeing is that when both GP and LP side, when buyers are presenting their offers, often one of the buying vehicles will be their 40 Act fund”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 41:14 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Contradicted
Dawn: Cogent Partners was the only PE secondary market advisor in 2001
“So when I first found out there's only one advisor and they were a startup in Dallas called Cogent Partners.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 8:26 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: 40% to 50% of Early Secondaries Flow Came From Banks
“Also, maybe 40 to 50% of the flow in the market was actually bank selling similar to UBS.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 9:49 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dawn: Over-allocated public pensions are driving relative value secondary sales
“More relative value transactions are being executed these days, particularly with, I would say, public pensions who are over allocated to private equity compared to their benchmarks.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 16:08 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Continuation fund transactions represented around 10% of exits in 2023
“Sponsor to continuation fund channel, which was around 10% of exits last year.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 22:19 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: $20B in Single-Asset Continuation Funds Closed Last Year
“And there was about twenty billion dollars of single asset continuation funds done last year out of fifty billion dollars of GP driven transactions executed.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 24:28 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Dawn: Secondary market accounts for roughly 2% of outstanding AUM
“The secondary market is around two percent of outstanding AUM.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 27:23 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dawn: Secondary private equity market sees virtually zero litigation over 20 years
“There's very, very little litigation, if any, that I've seen in the secondary market in 20 years.”
Nigel Dawn Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 37:13 Nigel Dawn - Secondaries in Private Markets (EP.378)
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