The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Immigrant and entrepreneurial groups are shifting away from Democrats
“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 34:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Prediction Partly held up
Silver: Base case for 2022 midterms is Republican majorities in Congress
“Midterm elections are more predictable Than presidential elections. And the base case is that you wind up with Republican majorities of some magnitude.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 32:41 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 38%
“Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is down to. 38%.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 31:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Socialism is significantly more popular among younger Democrats
“I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand Is much more popular among younger Democrats.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 33:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: 80% of voters agreed Joe Biden was too old
“Saying, Biden is obviously too old, Democrats, you're gonna lose unless you replace him. Like, that, even though it's a stance that, like, literally 80% of voters agreed with, will make you, like, seem like a heretic on Twitter.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 46:49 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Silver: Liberals criticized FiveThirtyEight for being too bullish on Trump in 2016
“Before the election, we got a lot of criticism from like liberals for being too bullish on Trump. The market price was about 15%.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 21:28 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Recounts almost never overturn vote margins above 0.05%
“Almost never have you had a margin larger than oh point oh five percent or so overturned.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 20:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Gavin Newsom's Democratic primary polling fell from 25% to 15%
“Newsom has fallen in Democratic primary polls from around 25% to 15%. He's fallen on polling market from like 33% to 22% or something.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 55:33 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Silver: The average VC investment makes money, unlike average poker hands
“The average investment makes money. It may not make a above market return, but it'll make money, which is not true for the average Poker hand that you play.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 6:19 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Only about 10% of poker players profit long term
“In poker where only 10% of players probably make money in the long run, you have to be very, very detail oriented.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 6:47 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Silver: FiveThirtyEight was bullish on Joe Biden in 2020 primary
“If you get kind of, like, the twenty-twenty primary, like, we were very bullish on Joe Biden when people weren't and thought he was gonna lose, and so you don't get, like, a lot of credit, and you do face, like, a lot of downside for being actually wrong or pe…”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 23:55 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Half of US student loan debt is from graduate school
“Half of student loan debt is people going to graduate school”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 37:57 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Nate Silver claims he is ranked 301st in global poker rankings
“I'm currently I think number three-oh-one in the global poker rankings.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 1:59 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Nate Silver: Sports bettors need a 52.5% win rate to break even
“You have to win 52 and a half percent to make up for the house cut for the rake or the vig as different names.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 5:42 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
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