The Ledger, every show

“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”

“It may not resolve itself in the end of democracy, but like, that's like a, you know, a risk that's, you know, in the 10% range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in twenty-twenty-four and maybe repeated that in twenty-twenty-eight and so forth,…”

“43 of the 50 states, David, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028, and it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.”

“I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028.”

“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”

“Prediction markets say Democrats are around, I think, 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think, if anything, it's a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90.”

“Whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss up probably, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly fifty-fifty or maybe, maybe…”

“Midterm elections are more predictable Than presidential elections. And the base case is that you wind up with Republican majorities of some magnitude.”

“You can actually see the effect of being more moderate will gain you an extra two or three or four points, right? Being less More moderate, more radical in some cases, will lose you two or three or four points.”

“Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is down to. 38%.”

“I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand Is much more popular among younger Democrats.”

“Saying, Biden is obviously too old, Democrats, you're gonna lose unless you replace him. Like, that, even though it's a stance that, like, literally 80% of voters agreed with, will make you, like, seem like a heretic on Twitter.”

“I talked to Sam Beckman-Fried for the book, for example, and he's like, yeah, I knew this would have like a, only a 50% chance of succeeding, but the payoff was so high, I would take it.”

“Before the election, we got a lot of criticism from like liberals for being too bullish on Trump. The market price was about 15%.”

“In two-way races, it's not clear if there's any impact either way, where canon effect is when you're having a multiple candidate race, right? In twenty-twenty, when Elizabeth Warren started to fall behind Bernie Sanders in the polls, right, if you're a left-wi…”

“Almost never have you had a margin larger than oh point oh five percent or so overturned.”

“Newsom has fallen in Democratic primary polls from around 25% to 15%. He's fallen on polling market from like 33% to 22% or something.”

“The average investment makes money. It may not make a above market return, but it'll make money, which is not true for the average Poker hand that you play.”

“In poker where only 10% of players probably make money in the long run, you have to be very, very detail oriented.”

“Magnus Carlsen will lose, you know, five pounds over the course of a chess match just thinking”

“If you get kind of, like, the twenty-twenty primary, like, we were very bullish on Joe Biden when people weren't and thought he was gonna lose, and so you don't get, like, a lot of credit, and you do face, like, a lot of downside for being actually wrong or pe…”

“If you have a generic ballot that favors Republicans by like two points, the Democrats can probably keep the Senate.”

“Half of student loan debt is people going to graduate school”

“I'm currently I think number three-oh-one in the global poker rankings.”

“I talked to Daniel Negreanu, for example, one of the probably five best puck players of all time. And he told me that about four years ago, he realized that these solver kids, as he calls them, the math whizzes were better than him, at least at certain forms o…”

“You have to win 52 and a half percent to make up for the house cut for the rake or the vig as different names.”

“Good players fold 70% of their hands for the most part, right?”