The Ledger, every show

“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”

“I think this probably puts a, you know, a silver bullet into stable coins.”

“I think big oil is talking more than they're acting. I don't think that the scale of this, in most cases, the scale of investment in the energy of the future, you know, the relative investment there, which is a relatively small percentage of overall cashflow a…”

“There's no net zero without nuclear power. A lot of people don't like to think about nuclear and think that there's an easy right to shut it down, but in fact we have to grow it by another 50% between now and twenty-fifty worldwide.”

“So we're at that phase, certainly, I think, in the DeFi crypto universe.”

“I think the example a little closer to home for me would be in hydrogen, where we've had a couple of those euphoric cycles. The last one was early 2000. We're entering another, and I think a much more solidly grounded one. Time will tell though. I can't actual…”

“Almost one in 10 U S regional banks would fall below their minimum capital levels if all of their assets were marked to market.”

“Kind of barbell strategy was, it was dangerous to be in that awkward middle where you're a large regional, and therefore you have a lot of corporate deposits, deposits above the minimum, They turn out to be much more flighty. What we saw with Silicon Valley, w…”

“And as a bigger picture point, the system is moving towards a form of narrow banking as a core competitor to a fractional fractional reserve banks. In other words, banks that create their own money and leverage up. And it's able to do that. The system's able t…”

“To assume that we're going back to that world after we get through this bout of inflation is also in my view, an unrealistic assumption. You're just gambling for redemption on that one.”

“Let's say in the US, it'll probably slow growth by, you know, half to three quarters of a percentage point. It's probably enough if people felt that the US economy was on the cusp of you know, this narrow path between avoiding recession and having a recession.…”

“And you know, if we had been talking at the end of February, early March before Silicon Valley bank, I would have said something to the effect of, I think the fed may have to go to six percent fed funds. Now I think they'll probably stop at five, five and a qu…”

“And that meant that You know, they lost six to nine months probably of tightening, ah, time that could have been spent initiating a more gradual tightening, squeezing out some of the excess which built up, you know, in these late stages of a cycle, you get the…”

“They have the U S in the, in this space of the time, since we last spoke has gone from well behind Europe, the UK, amongst the major industrialized countries in addressing climate change to putting in place, you know, the measures now driving with the investme…”

“I don't think I've ever been in a position in my career where I've been able to say the European banking system is in better shape than in most other countries. And certainly the U S in this case but that is the case, so their financial system is is, is solid.”

“The extent to which you're at the furthest end of the spectrum in terms of risk tends to have a larger effect on the value, at least in temporary terms for those risk assets. You could crypto various DeFi applications in that camp. They've had a very large run…”

“Well, actually, I think the first thing to say, Harry, is you are seeing a boom right now. You just haven't seen the bust yet.”

“A series of other elements that are being developed around NFTs and the fractionalization of ownership or different forms of ownership in the metaverse. These are new elements of finance or new elements of the economy, bridges and payment made possible by thes…”

“Look, I think that there's a wide form of, as you know, and those listening will know, there's a wide range of cryptocurrencies, crypto assets. Many of them will not survive.”

“What we've seen to some extent with Bitcoin, and it's too short a time series to be definitive about this, is that in some respects been an amplifier of overall risk appetite, certainly over the course of the last”

“When a payment system gets to scale, it's in everybody's interest that that system is operationally resilient, that it's well grounded, and that it's as efficient as possible. And in all of those respects, it becomes more and more difficult at large scale for …”

“And my view at least is that the value of the crypto asset, the cryptocurrency that links over time, there's a Laffer curve, the more successful it is, Ultimately, the more it will need to be brought into the core of the system, perhaps linked with a stable co…”

“To some extent, it's been indiscriminate, and there can, you know, there's likely to be a pullback. Now, let me not say, unless anyone thinks that, that a pullback means an end, because I think I've tried to stress that there's real value being created There i…”

“Well, one of the things I expect to happen is that there will be central bank digital currencies. That they will be at the wholesale level. So they will serve many of the wholesale applications of some of the stable coins and others.”

“I think that some will, but they'll be the minority. I think a number of them will shift towards becoming more white-label credit providers, because In the end, somebody needs a balance sheet to make the loan, and that service isn't necessarily, that expertise…”

“In the end, I think the unit of account is still going to be in the domestic fiat. The ultimate store of value will be in the domestic Fiat, but that the fiat isn't necessarily what's going to be used for the means of payment.”

“So NFTs fall in this camp. Artificial intelligence, machine learning absolutely falls into that campus. Well, ultimately beneficial, but a period of time we're likely to increase inequality.”

“Every technological revolution has had that break. Between the speed with which productivity increases and the returns to labor.”

“The longer higher rates go on and the more deposits move to perceived safer places, we're going to see more at a minimum, I'll put it politely. We're going to see more consolidation in that sector.”

“The system as a whole has more than six times the loss absorbency it had then. It has much higher liquidity across the system.”

“It has to be duly authorized, and in the US that requires an act of Congress. So the effective way to guarantee all those deposits is not going to happen quickly.”

“On the balance, it bears more responsibility for the situation it is than the macro.”

“I do think what this does lead to though, is the system moving more towards wholesale finance, narrow banking in different pockets, and that the funding of banks Will over time become more wholesale, less retail, more volatile, more credit differentiation.”

“The level of clean energy investments, so renewables and other investment Has tripled over the course of the last five years. It's on course to quadruple again over the course of you know, between now and the end of the decade.”

“Three, four years ago, about four percent of new auto sales were EVs. This year it's looking like it's going to be closer to 20% worldwide. That is, those are huge, huge numbers. And in most advanced economies, it's likely to be more one and two by the end of …”

“China accounted for half of clean energy investment last year, about five hundred and fifty billion US of the 1.1 trillion. So half in effect. Renewable investments growing at 50% a year. They have more than 50% of the EV market in terms of the flow there.”

“Two thirds of the emissions in the world now come from the emerging world. Now that includes China. China's about 30% of global emissions. So, but you've got 35% plus of emissions coming from countries that most private investors never visit, don't have exposu…”

“What tends to happen when interest rates increase is that there is a amplified impact on the interest rates of risk assets or the discount rates on risk assets. So if the bank rate goes up by one percentage point, the discount rate tends to go up by one and a …”

“95% of the money that circulates in the system is created by the private sector today.”

“So if guilt rates go or the bank rate goes up by one percentage point, you tend, the discount rate tends to go up by one and a half to two and a half points, depending on where the asset is on the risk spectrum.”

“I'm not a AI will mean that none of us are ever going to work again. I'm in the AI will enable new jobs.”

“I think the question, one of the most interesting ones will come around hard assets, other hard assets, whether it's real estate, other hard assets, and the fractionalization of those assets, and the ownership, and the way portfolios can be Constructed. So who…”

“And what's interesting about that phase is provided you'd avoided getting over levered in the Ponzi phase, what it brings is tremendous opportunity because the underlying Innovation was real. It's still there. You've seen what works and what works less well. T…”

“It's just not realistic that, you know, Harry VC and people like you, or somebody running the corner shop who has their deposit in a bank is going to sit, take time out to monitor the health of the bank and move that deposit when it, when you start to get conc…”

“If something doesn't make sense, it doesn't make sense. So in other words, if someone explains something to you in finance, and it doesn't quite ring true, ask them to explain it again. And if they can't, they probably don't know what they're talking about. Th…”

“Over time, I think the role of the exchange will increasingly be about the exchange of the underlying asset, which is not the Currency. But as I say, the underlying asset, whether it's a piece of art, whether it's a function in a video game, whether it's a fra…”

“And, you know, there's a term in economics called the Engels pause, which is the experience of When you have a big technological change, there is a disconnect between the productivity growth of labor and the real incomes of labor, and if you look in the first …”

“Well, first off, the innovation in and around the art world, I think, both in terms of digital art, but the changing of ownership and provenance of ownership and returns to the artists. I think that fundamentally a winner.”