The Ledger, every show

“There's not going to be a distress cycle. Sorry, there'll be some distress deals that are interesting, I'm sure, but you sort of had this period where, oh my gosh, things are going bad, let's raise a distress debt fund, and they still are trying, but just tell…”

“I think certainly on the venture side, there's no doubt that you're going to see a lot of venture companies just hit the wall.”

“We will have elongated hold periods, which means IRRs are coming down. Now, presumably the public market returns are also coming down from what they were the last five, 10 years. But I think people need to recognize that. I know general partners in particular …”

“If you wanted to make money in smartphones, 20 years ago, whenever it was, you invested in Apple, and you had a global industry leader. That's not going to happen anymore. You will have Apple US, Apple China”

“We've run numbers. The return is basically the same. There's no real difference between A GP to GP deal return and a non-GP to GP deal return. So there's no advantage or disadvantage.”

“It's kind of this two forces colliding, and I think it's going to lead to a reasonable shakeout under any market scenario. I don't care if the market Flattens out here, goes up here a little. It will take a market going up 50% for some of this to ease, and tha…”

“That cyclicality has not been changed, and I suspect we're in for a fairly difficult period of time in the venture world. And unfortunately, That takes time. Look at the 2000 and I'm not at all suggesting we're going to be like 2000. I don't think we are, but …”

“I believe in 10 years, 15 years, that portfolios will, by and large, be 50% private, 50% public.”

“I think that inflation peaked a while back and is headed down. I don't know if it'll get down to two percent. I don't think it really matters. I think the most global economies outside of perhaps China are going to go into a recession and it will be a shallow …”

“So I think this is really where the industry is going to have a pressure point over the next two, three, four years. This is not a, oh, the market goes up 20% and everything's magically solved.”

“I don't think being a newer manager in the next two or three years, unless you have some incredibly great area you're in, or have something unique, are going to do very well. It just seems like the more conservative, I'll call them, organizations are Probably …”

“That will continue to be a growing part of the market. It will have hiccups. We saw the ones at the end of last year on some of the name products, and so I think people need to be careful in terms of how they're selling into that market, the investor base that…”

“The movement away from traditional sources of credit Is only going to continue. Banks are getting out of that business, and what's happened in the U.S. With Silicon Valley and Signature, I mean, there's just going to be more need for private credit. The amount…”

“Three years ago, on any deal, there were a 150 people that said they wanted to do a co-invest on that deal. Maybe 50 of them actually ended up answering the phone and doing it, and now it's down to 10, eight, 12. It has very, very significantly shrunk the univ…”

“Until we get there, I just think ESG will be either a bunch of happy talk on one side, or a bunch of political tools, essentially, on the other side.”

“The larger firms, the largest, have a narrower dispersion of return. In other words, the difference in return is not that great between XYZ big firm. Don't tell them that, because they're also a top quartile. In the mid-market, there's a vast spread of return.…”

“I think the high net worth investor, the wealth channel, will be a huge participant in the private markets, and they should be.”

“What's happening now is the deal activity has slowed. There's no question, especially compared to what it was in the heyday of 21, 20. What you're seeing in this market today is on the equity side, The deals being done are really good companies. Great companie…”

“On the investing side, again, one of the big changes in the industry over the years is everyone always used to do one thing, like you did private equity or you did private credit. Now you do everything and we do everything.”

“I think in 10 years you and I will have this conversation and we will be talking about portfolio construction and whether we're leaning more into growth, more into this, more into that, whatever.”

“We are now about 550 people, which doesn't sound very large compared to a lot of companies, but when you're from four, it sounds huge. We are 150, hundred sixty billion under assets under management with another eight hundred billion under advisement, so we're…”

“30% of deals in private equity, and this is over time, have gone from one general partner to another.”

“Nobody, well, except the smallest funds, nobody has a fund that doesn't have a huge international component.”