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20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: AI future will feature millions of specialized models, not AGI
“I really believe the future will not be a few small number of AGI models dominating the world. I really believe the future will be, it may be scary, but I think that's true, it will be millions of specialized models, one per application, per use case.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 20:59 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
LATENT SPACE Prediction Not checkable as stated
Specialized open-source expert models will outperform one-size-fits-all closed-source models
“And that's our prediction is With specialization, there will be a lot of expert models, really, really good, and even better than, like, one size fits all open source closed source model.”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 33:45 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Lin Qiao: AI token costs will drop 10x in three years, driving 100x usage
“I do think the cost of token will go down drastically. 10 X cost reduction in the next three years, and this 10 X cost reduction will drive a hundred X usage.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 0:23 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: The future of AI is private, specialized intelligence
“We believe the future of the frontier of the intelligence, actually private intelligence, our specialized intelligence.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 5:22 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Fireworks runs distributed RL across 5-6 global data center regions
“We've designed a fully distributed system. We run across five, six data center regions globally, and tap into scattered GPUs, and they are able to run massive jobs, our jobs.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 36:27 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: All major AI coding companies use Fireworks infrastructure
“I think all major coding companies are on us.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 38:40 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Qiao: Fireworks daily token count could grow 20x-100x by next year
“Anywhere ranging from 20 to a hundred X could be possible.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 41:22 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Nations will build sovereign AI models like power grids
“I definitely see that possibility. I also see, if we think about the general intelligence model as the electricity layer, as a power line, every country should own their own power line, right?”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:07:46 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Qiao: AI market will shift from token maxing to ROI maxing
“In the next couple of years, as AI is getting more and more into production, there will be a lot of focus. In getting that clarity and getting that discipline out. The token maxing is just a thing in time, but we're quickly moving to ROI maxing, which is about…”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:25:23 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Qiao: Every company will own its custom AI intelligence within three years
“I really see people will own their, every single company will own their own intelligence as a must-have. It's not optional.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:27:12 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao predicts a 10x AI cost reduction yields 100x more applications
“If this bar can be lowered by 10 times, you can imagine there's so many more, it will be hundred times more applications enter the, this arena to create a brand new experience to end consumers and prosumers. And by that, we'll see a much bigger consumption acr…”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 51:56 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: The future of AI modeling belongs to open-source models
“The future of the future of modeling sits on open model side. And I believe that side is gonna be much more active in creating those hundreds or maybe thousands of expert models that is specialized delivering much better quality in certain domain.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 57:29 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Enterprise data will never be shared with third parties
“It will never get shared with anyone else because this is company's proprietary IP.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 5:02 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: US can build its own open-source AI ecosystem if China restricts access
“I do believe, in terms of talent density and resources, I do believe U.S. Will be able to build that open system by ourselves, and we should.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 21:55 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Fireworks processes over 40 trillion tokens daily
“Today we process more than 40 trillion tokens a day. So majority of those tokens are coming from a customized model, not from off-the-shelf models, are coming from a customized model.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 40:59 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Qiao: Fireworks could optimize gross margins now but chooses rapid expansion
“If our focus is only optimized growth margin, we absolutely can do that, but we are sacrificing the speed of growth because we want to go everywhere.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 55:24 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
The AI Industry Lacks Systems Designed for 10-Trillion Parameter Models
“Great system designed for 10 trillion parameter models today.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:13:15 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: token costs will fall drastically and cheaper infrastructure will invite far more usage
“I do think the cost of token will go down drastically. High price will invite a lot of people coming in to solve the problem, and it will invite competition. Competition will bring down the cost, and then eventually will lead into a very economical solution, r…”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 47:19 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeepSeek runs each single model replica across more than 300 GPUs
“DeepSeq actually that company itself was running and still running this model over more than 300 GPUs. So think about this deployment. One replica is 300 GPUs, and there are so many different, so many more replicas.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 36:10 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
LATENT SPACE Assertion Partly supported
Fireworks AI serves fine-tuned LoRA adapters at base model pricing
“We wrote multi LoRa last year, actually, and we actually have this function for a long time and many people have been using it, but it's not well known that, oh, if you find your model, you don't need to use on demand. If you find your model is LoRa. You can u…”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 52:11 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
LATENT SPACE Assertion Supported
Fireworks AI's multi-LoRA system serves up to 1,000 adapters per base model
“One base model can sustain a hundred to a thousand LoRa adapters. And then basically all these different LoRa adapters can share the same, like direct the same traffic to the same base model where base model is dominating the cost.”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 53:45 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Lin Qiao: Fireworks AI will not enter the application layer
“We absolutely are not going to move into application layer. Very clear to us.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 0:34 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: Most world data is private enterprise data, not public internet
“If you think intelligence is a derivative of data, then majority of the data is actually not used for training a general intelligence model. The training data is coming from public internet and the label data. Public internet is very small. Corpus of data comp…”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 4:31 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Fireworks has achieved 5x to 10x inference cost reductions
“What we have seen in the past is five times to 10 times cost reduction.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 19:19 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: Almost all AI coding startups now fine-tune custom models
“In coding space, Cursor probably is one of the pioneers starting to tune their model, and now almost all coding companies tune their own models.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 26:38 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Major AI base IQ leaps will occur every 9-12 months
“I see those as every year or every three quarters, there's a major leap.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 27:56 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Qiao: AI model routing will evolve into fully automated self-learning systems
“We also think there's a space to build a automatic routing system that can learn by itself, and that compound with automatic tuning system eventually. We think it should all be automated, and then you can see a self-evolving system based on what flow through y…”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 31:41 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Fireworks achieves exact bit equivalence between AI training and inference
“Between the training system and the inference system, when models move over, We have bit equivalence. So, as in, the numerics are fully the same. We do not lose a bit of accuracy.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 52:06 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Legal AI market consolidated from many startups to two
“Take legal, for example. I was on a dinner table, and interesting, it seems like there were a lot of those companies around two years ago, but now it's pretty much two.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:05:17 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fireworks AI improved speculative execution hit rates from 30% to 90%
“We have seen cases improving the prediction hit from 30% to 90%, and that's huge speed.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 29:25 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Contradicted
Fireworks AI was first to enable function calling for DeepSeek models
“We have been working on function for calling for a long time, and we are the first one to enable function calling for deep seek models.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 43:58 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Supported
Over 500 DeepSeek model variants hit Hugging Face within a month
“DeepSeq for example, just within one month of releasing their new models, There are, despite DeepSeq model, extremely hard to tune and optimize, extremely hard. There are 500, more than 500 variants published on Hugging Face, optimizing for local device, optim…”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 56:29 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
LATENT SPACE Assertion Supported
PyTorch was originally built for researchers without considering production requirements
“PyTorch actually started as the framework for researchers. Don't care about production at all.”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 4:22 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
LATENT SPACE Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fireworks AI runs custom acceleration kernels for almost all served models
“For almost for all models, for all large language models, all your models.”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 23:24 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
20VC Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: AI hardware vendors now release three SKUs per year
“And now within a year from one vendor alone, we have three SKUs.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:01:24 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Supported
Meta Has Been Building Custom Silicon Chips for Over Five Years
“I think Meta has been building their chips for more than five years, way more than five years.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:09:20 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Assertion Supported
Qiao: Fireworks AI currently has 200 employees
“So today we're at 200 people.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:15:35 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
MAD Assertion Supported
Meta historically maintained three separate AI frameworks for mobile, research, and production
“Even within Mata, there are three different flavors. One for mobile, one for research, one for production.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 4:14 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meta spent five years rebuilding PyTorch's backend for internal scale
“It took us five years. Took us five years to get the stage supporting almost all internal needs using deep learning and mass and massive scale.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 6:48 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: OpenAI switched completely from TensorFlow to PyTorch
“OpenAI switched to use PyTorch fully.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 8:00 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Meta had hundreds of engineers building PyTorch and its infrastructure
“We have hundreds of engineers building PyTorch and infrastructure around PyTorch, but at the same time, I believe PyTorch within Meta probably has thousands of users.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 19:23 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Fireworks AI's optimization space has over 80,000 options
“And all these different options add up together, it can lead into more than 80,000 possible, possible way to optimize.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 32:38 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
LATENT SPACE Assertion Supported
Fireworks AI operates with a team of only forty people
“No, but only 40 people.”
Lin Qiao Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 39:12 Why Compound AI + Open Source will beat Closed AI — with Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI
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