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20VC Opinion
Traditional 'triple-triple-double-double' startup growth is no longer attractive for VC
“I turned down a company the other day, Because they were going from, like, one and a half to five to 15, and there's an opportunity cost of capital to say that's very real, and the growth expectations are just very different. In other words, triple, triple, do…”
Harry Stebbings Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 51:17 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: 20VC hires mostly immigrants because British people lack strong work ethic
“Pretty much only hire immigrants. British people don't work very hard.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:19:57 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: TBPN is the Clubhouse of our era with near-zero engagement retention
“I think it's Clubhouse of our era. And so they have brilliant channel market fit, which is they crush it on Twitter for very specific clips. When you look at any of their view rates, very little. When you look at their retention on engagement rates, fuck all.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 11, 2026 ▶ 47:21 20Growth: The $6.6B Growth Engine Behind ElevenLabs | Why ElevenLabs Do Not Have PMs | The 7 Part Launch Playbook to Crush All Launches with Luke Harries, Head of Growth @ ElevenLabs
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: I would put my entire $400M fund into OpenAI
“If I could do anything without fear of retribution from my LPs, I'd put my four hundred million fund into OpenAI.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 45:20 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: European founder quality is much worse than in the US
“I think the quality of European founders is much worse than the US”
Harry Stebbings Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 31:48 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: The younger generation of workers is lazy and expects high compensation
“I think this generation is fucking lazy. They do not work, sorry, I'm on a rant now. They do not want to work hard, they do not want to come into the office, they get paid top dollar, and actually, they want great package, they want all of this, and they don't…”
Harry Stebbings Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 59:28 Akin Babayigit: How Tripledot Studios Became #1 Fastest-Growing Company in Europe | E1030 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Remote Work Is One of the Most Poisonous Things
“I don't buy remote by the way. I think remote is one of the most poisonous things.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 7, 2023 ▶ 45:11 Rob Lacher: How I Scaled to $600M AUM; Hiring Tips for VCs; Venture Capital in Europe vs USA | E999 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Stebbings: Series B investors are offering founders $1M payouts to return capital
“You know, it is, but I'm seeing now I've seen four this month where the series B's are saying, Hey, preemptively we fucked up, but give us our cash back and we'll give you a million each.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 21, 2022 ▶ 1:07:36 Semil Shah: Lessons Learned Scaling from a $1M to a $50M Fund | 20VC #951 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Harry Stebbings: Most retail investors on Robinhood are incompetent
“I think most of the people who invest in there are incompetent and shouldn't be given dollars. This will definitely be taken out, no doubt. I think this is like, you know, you're empowering people who should not be investing. They do not understand public mark…”
Harry Stebbings Jan 28, 2022 ▶ 22:57 20VC: The Robinhood Memo: The Early Metrics That Showed Robinhood was a Breakout Company, The Cost Structure of Robinhood in the Early Days and Why it is a More Efficient Business than eTrade & How Vlad Has Developed as a Leader Over Time with Rick Yang a
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Society No Longer Fundamentally Operates as a Democracy
“I don't think we fundamentally live in a democracy anymore, because I know I don't, and I know that pretty much everyone around me is too afraid to say how they truly feel.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 1, 2020 ▶ 33:19 20VC: What Is Founder Narrative Fit and How to Detect and Invest In It, How To Avoid Consensus Thinking When Investing, Price Sensititivity; When To Pay Up vs Stay Disciplined & From New York Times To General Catalyst; Why Venture and Journalism are Not S
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: OpenAI fumbled voice AI due to poor management and hiring
“Well, I think with all candor, that's because of incredibly poor management. And hiring, and that was theirs to take, and they fumbled the bag across every spectrum.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 29:21 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Stebbings predicts Meta's stock price would rise if Mark Zuckerberg departed
“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 59:02 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
20VC Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Cognition Reportedly Raising at $46B Valuation With $1.6B Projected ARR
“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 37:23 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Mercor Crosses $2B ARR and Raises at $20B Valuation
“I'm an investor in McCaw. I never thought this would be as big as it has got as quickly as hit, as it has done. It's crossing out two, two and a half billion ARR. They're doing a new round led by General Catalyst at twenty billion.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 13:25 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Surge AI at $3.5B ARR, Mercor $2.5B, Handshake $1B, Micro1 $500M
“Surge are doing three, three and a half. McCaw are doing two and a half. Handshaker doing one. Micro One are doing half.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 21:16 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Chinese Open-Source AI Providers Are Inherently Advantaged Over US
“I think the comparative landscapes they sit in mean that the Chinese open source providers are just inherently advantaged, sadly.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 39:11 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
20VC Disclosure
Stebbings: Scaling From $1.5M to $15M ARR Is No Longer VC-Fundable
“I turned down a company the other day that went from one and a half, and they were gonna go to five, and then they were gonna go from five to 15, and it's just not enough anymore. It's just not interesting. I'm sorry for venture. We have an opportunity cost of…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 16:12 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: The $1 Billion Valuation Has Become the New Series A Standard
“I think a billion dollar valuation is the new series, eh? And you're like, whoa, Harry, whoa, whoa, kiddo, calm down, listen to the facts. We used to do a fifty million post and hope it would become a 1,000,000,020 x, without dilution, blunt. Now, you enter at…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 33:58 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei will successfully lobby for AI restrictions
“I just think Sam Altman is someone who I would never, ever bet against, and I think he's the best politician in the world, and I think when he says something, he says it with intent, and when he says we should give five percent away to the administration, he's…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 19:23 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
20VC Opinion
Series A is the worst stage due to 200x ARR valuations
“I think Series A is the worst place to be today, and my partners always hate me for this, because all Series A founders are like, great, we won't go and see them but it's the worst place to be. You have, like, one to three million in revenue, and you're at 200…”
Harry Stebbings Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 34:33 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sub-$100M boutique seed funds will be the worst-performing VC category
“I think one of the worst performing groups in terms of venture in this vintage will actually be the small boutique seed funds, which is what every single LP that you speak to today, Matt, wants. Every LP. This is the funniest thing. Every LP wants San Francisc…”
Harry Stebbings Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 37:43 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Wealthy founders and investors make superior, rational decisions
“I think better, I think founders are better and investors are better when they are already rich. If I'm being blunt, I think you make more rational, sound decisions that are not made with economic impatience.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 58:40 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: $50M to $100M seed funds get crushed in current market
“The worst place to be is a 50 to a hundred million dollar seed fund. You will get crushed by the large funds who are able to write large checks and lead rounds, but you're also not small enough to be collaborative. Very difficult middle ground to be in.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 9:51 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: VC firms need a $400M fund to lead Series A today
“You can't do Series A unless you have a four hundred million dollar fund today. Absolutely no chance.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 43:13 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Growing $1.5M to $5M ARR is no longer enough for Series A
“They were finishing the year at one and a half million ARR, finishing next year at five million ARR. Today, brutal as it is, this isn't good enough to raise a good Series A.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 1:01:56 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2036
Stebbings: Menlo to make $10B carry on Anthropic, Founders Fund more on SpaceX
“Menlo will make ten billion dollars in carry Spot will too, plus Founders Fund will make more than that from SpaceX.”
Harry Stebbings Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 1:25:09 Anthropic Files to Go Public | Cognition Raises $1BN at $26BN Valuation | The 996 Work Ethic · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Altman Offered $2M in OpenAI Tokens to Every YC Startup
“Sam Altman just offered two million dollars In open AI tokens to every YC startup in the current batch in exchange for equity.”
Harry Stebbings May 21, 2026 ▶ 1:02:36 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: San Francisco is the worst place to start a company today
“San Francisco is the worst place to start a company today because it is so expensive and difficult to acquire talent.”
Harry Stebbings May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:27:24 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Strained parental relationships correlate with successful founders
“Struggles in parental relationships often signify very successful founders, sadly.”
Harry Stebbings May 9, 2026 ▶ 44:56 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC What-if
Stebbings: Investing in every met founder would yield 17x greater success
“If I'd invest in every founder that I'd met, every founder that I've met, I'd be 17 X more successful. One seven X more successful. I would have had two and a half percent of deal. I would have had two percent of 11 Labs. I'd have a seed check in Flettersport,…”
Harry Stebbings May 9, 2026 ▶ 51:29 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Staying at Salesforce for 12+ years signals mediocrity
“If you've been at Salesforce for 12, 1314 years, I automatically think you're not great. I'm like, you got stuck in your ways. You've been there for way too long. Seriously, you were happy just in this kind of melee of Mediocrity for 1213, 14 years.”
Harry Stebbings May 2, 2026 ▶ 3:32 Inside Clay's Sales Playbook | Becca Lindquist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic secondary market pricing has reached $1 trillion
“Every dollar wants its home in Anthropic right now, and it's caused secondary market prices to surge to a trillion dollars for Anthropic.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 42:49 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: AI customer support software is currently uninvestable due to competition
“I think customer support is uninvestable today, and I get so much shit on Twitter for this, because everyone shits on them, but I'm like, Sierra and Dakagon, obviously two market leaders in terms of brand, and how much money they've raised, and you've got 16 p…”
Harry Stebbings Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 26:52 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Managing institutional capital conflicts with full-time employer duties
“When you take institutional money, it's a great responsibility taking on someone else's money, and you have already made a promise to your employer that you will devote your best efforts and all of your energy to making them successful and the company successf…”
Harry Stebbings Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 1:10:11 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: OpenAI should acquire Sierra and make Bret Taylor CEO
“It's the best thing for OpenAI not to buy Sierra, incorporate that as a customer support product, and have Brett Taylor come in as the day-to-day CEO, and Sam can be fundraiser, Sam can be master of...”
Harry Stebbings Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 15:33 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Sequoia and top VCs announce misleading blended valuations
“The amount of Sequoia rounds where it's like, oh, you know, X raises money from square five billion. Trust me, Sequoia got in at one, but they just club it together and then announced the sum and then the latest valuation. And it's just very misleading.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 35:57 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: VC firms need at least $1B to compete in Series A
“My takeaway is, honestly, you can't do early, and you're going to kill me, Rory, with less than a billion if you're going to compete to lead A's.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 59:19 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor doubled revenue from $1B to $2B in three months
“Cursor announces their movement from a billion to two billion in revenue in, in three months. Rumors of secondary round being done at fifty billion.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 1:03:10 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Stebbings: AI and Waymo could displace 30-40M workers in four years
“If we want to add in Waymo and what it'll do for self-driving within a four year period, Gosh, I think you could see 30 to forty million people.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 43:20 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Stebbings: 20VC will not invest in per-seat software pricing models
“If they sell per seat, we're not doing it. We need to replace jobs. Like labor displacement is what we're investing into. And that's the only way that we can actually return the amount of money that we need to now to make funds worth it.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 19:06 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Stebbings: Broken paternal relationships are the top shared trait among unicorn founders
“And the single most common feature is a broken relationship with their father.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 1:24:46 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Cursor could lose half its revenue this year to Claude Code
“I think there's a chance that Cursor loses half of their revenue this year with the cannibalization of them by claw code.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 11:26 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Harry Stebbings says Claude Code cannibalized Cursor's business overnight
“Claude Code, Has cannibalized a lot of Cursor's business overnight and everyone's canceling Cursor.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 17:41 20Growth: How Wix Built a $100M Marketing Machine | Why LTV is BS and Why Time Return On Investment is the Most Important Metric | How to 10x Your Growth: What is the Next Great Channel with Omer Shai, CMO @ Wix
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Tech leaders face unprecedented demonization by 2026 over AI job losses
“I think another prediction of mine for 2026 is I think we're going to see like the demonization of tech and tech leaders like never before, as you see the first real instantiation of job losses and job displacement in, in large parts of the economy, like in lo…”
Harry Stebbings Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 34:54 20Product: Is the Design Phase Dead in a World of AI | Has Claude Code Crushed Anthropic Already | What Roles of a PM Are Less and More Important with AI | How the Best Product Leaders Tell Stories with Noam Lovinsky, CPO @ Superhuman
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Series A is the worst stage for venture capital returns
“The worst place to be investing is Series A. You either need to be pre-seed or pre-IPO today. To make money.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 54:03 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Series A is the worst venture stage to invest in right now
“Series A is the worst place to be investing. Company progression is minimal. Price is four to five X, the seed price. And we're paying a 150 to 200 X ARR with little signs of product market fit.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 34:27 Alex Rampell: The Best Founders Materialise Capital, Customers & Labour | The Future of Venture · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Harry Stebbings: Sweet spot for hiring is under-24 Asians and Eastern Europeans
“So I hire, bluntly, Asians or Eastern Europeans, and very young, sub-twenty-three, 24. That is a sweet spot for us.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 11:48 20Sales: Why the Best Sales People are F**** in the Head | Why Remote Work is BS | Why Europe is a Nightmare for Recruiting Sales Teams | How to Build a Sales Machine | What Everyone Gets Wrong Today in Sales with Chad Peets
20VC Opinion
Harry Stebbings says seed-stage investing in San Francisco is for suckers
“I think seed in SF is for suckers.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 28:23 20VC: Max Altman on The New Seed War: Can Anyone Compete with Sequoia and a16z | Leaving $2BN on the Table with Reddit | Lessons from Backing Rippling at $25M Post | Why Climate Tech is a Mirage and Disaster
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