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20VC Opinion
Paley: Conventional VC advice urging startups to go faster is dangerous
“Frankly, I think the advice is dangerous, and I'd go one step further, which is, it has become the conventional wisdom of the industry. Which is go faster.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 26:44 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: High seed valuations lower a startup's chances of ultimate success
“So I just think there's another problem outside of, it's a different form of risk, which is the likelihood of success, in my opinion, goes way down for those companies, which is super counterintuitive because you're like, well, but they have more money at a hi…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 36:16 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: VC obsession with ownership targets hurts founder alignment and returns
“We do not focus on ownership. We actually think that's a very problematic mindset. There's a whole bunch of downstream issues, including, first of all, our missions about alignment with the founder, and the whole ownership mentality. You can twist yourself in …”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 39:17 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paley notes very few former-founder VCs achieved $250M exits themselves
“Very few of the VCs who were once entrepreneurs have had two hundred and fifty million dollar exits.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 15:09 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Disclosure
Founder Collective avoids pro rata rights due to founder misalignment
“We don't do a lot of Parada for a bunch of reasons, including we don't think In most cases, in many cases, Parada's aligned to the founder, because the problem with Parada is you're always a net buyer of the founder's company, and they're always a net seller.”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 10:50 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Insight
Exercising pro rata rights repeatedly dilutes seed fund returns
“The other thing you're doing when you're exercising parada over and over again is Is your dollar averaging down your returns, or otherwise you could say your dollar averaging up your cost basis?”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 11:35 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Insight
Paley: High seed valuations make Series A fundraising significantly harder
“I actually think being overpriced at seed is actually a bigger problem than most entrepreneurs realize, particularly as the market's adjusting, right? It's a very hard time To raise Series A in general, and it's a harder time if you're already priced where som…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:34 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Paley: Top Company Never Matched Its Founding Year's Hottest Theme
“Never, not the last 20 years, has the most valuable company born in any single year, right, valuable as of now, been this in the theme that was hot in that year. It has not happened.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 6:23 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Paley: Most VCs Earn Money From Management Fees, Not Carry
“It's why most VCs get paid on management fees. They don't get paid on, on, on carried interest, because TVPI, TVPI in that case, doesn't actually translate to DPI.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 10:08 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: AI Startup Valuations Are in an 8 or 9 Out of 10 Bubble
“If you're describing bubble as the asset prices related to that general idea, I think we're in a very extreme bubble. I also want to throw out there, and I think this is very relevant to Oh, yeah, I mean, I think we're not quite at NFT level, but we're probabl…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 16:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Easy access to early capital usually destroys startup value
“The easy access to money at a accelerated stage that the company is not ready for usually will destroy the company's value.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 17:49 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Overcapitalization Is the Biggest Risk to Startups Beside Lacking PMF
“Besides product market fit, the biggest risk to a venture-backed company is bad capitalization. And we don't mean undercapitalization. We mean overcapitalization”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 22:13 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: Blitzscaling is applied incorrectly in almost every startup context
“I think blitzscaling is this beautiful, beautiful idea of exactly what Mike said applied wrong in all, almost every context, right?”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 27:11 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: High valuations turn off good investors and increase next-round risk
“I don't think the founders often appreciate two things is how much they're turning off investors that might've been good investors for them, but even bigger, how much risk they're actually taking on their next round. What this round does in terms of creating r…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 41:38 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eric Paley: Overvalued unicorns face one of three realistic fates
“One of three things are going to happen to those companies, right? They're either going to take the extraordinary amount of cash they got, cut their burn rates down and figure out how to build real companies. And by the way, many of those will still never rais…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 49:57 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Investors won't recapitalize overvalued startups with low revenue
“If you're recapping a hundred million dollar revenue company at a billion dollar valuation, but it really should be recapped. People will do that work, but if you're recapping a three million dollar run rate revenue company with a billion dollar valuation, the…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 50:38 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Struggling founders should return unspent capital to investors
“I actually think that if you want to maintain your integrity, you want to maintain your integrity, and you don't have product market fit, and you raise money at a crazy valuation, and you don't want to have this burden on your back for possibly years, and by t…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 51:40 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paley: 2021 Was an Incredible Time to Sell Venture Investments
“2021 was an incredible time to be a seller, and anyone who didn't see that was completely playing momentum.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:00:14 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Private companies are actually more volatile than public companies
“Private companies are more volatile than public companies, in truth, we, like, pretend they're not at all volatile, and somehow their valuations are whatever happened in the last round some months ago.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:06:40 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: True Startup Dilution Comes From Burn Rate, Not Financing
“Valuation is all the sideshow. The dilution isn't even your financing. The dilution is how you use your burn rate. That is where all the dilution lives.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:13:22 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Paley: TVPI vs DPI disconnect will be among largest in VC history
“I would bet the last few years will be one of the biggest disconnects between TVPI and DPI for venture funds in venture history.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:14:04 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Paley's study of 71 IPOs shows capital raised doesn't drive startup success
“We looked at 71 IPOs over the last five years, the 71 tech IPOs over the last five years. To study whether venture capital in the outlier cases could be argued to have really driven greater success. And it turned out there was effectively no correlation betwee…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 10:42 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paley argues lightly capitalized startups outperform heavily funded competitors over time
“Over time, the lightly capitalized companies, the efficient entrepreneurs outperform.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 11:03 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley predicts many of 2016's unicorns will never justify $1B valuations
“There's over 200 Companies that are considered these unicorns, many of them will probably never live up to their billion dollar valuations, but they've redefined for venture capitalists what their expectations are.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 13:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Insight
Paley says startup exits smaller than total fund size are immaterial
“You have to put that alongside the fact that venture funds have been growing, and the rule of thumb we use there is we say any exit that isn't at least equivalent to the size of the fund is not really material to a fund.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 13:50 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC What-if
Following on in every Uber round wouldn't double Founder Collective's returns
“If we had invested in every single round we still wouldn't, I don't think, come close to doubling what our current value is.”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 18:05 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Insight
Breakout portfolio companies rarely need VC help, says Eric Paley
“Struggling through how hard it is to build companies in 90% of our portfolio. And then there's the 10% that just does amazingly well, and it's really fun to help those companies, and we do get involved, and we do contribute to those, too, but they don't really…”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 21:10 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: The most valuable company founded in 2023 could be direct-to-consumer
“The most valuable company born in 2023 could very well be in direct to consumer Commerce, because that's not where anyone wants to play right now.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 7:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Paley: Trade Desk Founder Limited Fundraising to Preserve Acquisition Optionality
“And I'll tell you another story, you know, with Trade Desk, one of the reasons we didn't raise a lot of money was, we were the last ones in, and people just thought it was played already in the programmatic advertising market. But one of the reasons we didn't …”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 30:11 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Many unicorn startups will lose their unicorn valuations
“So I think this, some of this stuff is starting to shift a little bit, largely because so many of these unicorns are going to be, you know, un, unhorned, or whatever the right term is, unwinged, unhorned.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 45:30 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: VCs who block founders from selling their companies are nuts
“It's like when a founder wants to sell their company, you say, yes, you should probably sell your company. VCs standing in the way are, I think are nuts.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 52:34 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: Big VC firms are disengaged and barely care about portfolio companies
“I think the truth of the big firms is they barely care. ... I think it is completely, in most cases, quite disengaged capital.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 54:44 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: The SPAC craze was largely a waste of energy for unready companies
“I think the SPAC craze was just a waste of everyone's energy and a bad idea, and I'm not saying there weren't any good SPACs, but generally speaking, it was a path, generally, there were exceptions, but it was a path for companies that were not ready to be pub…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:04:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Paley: Truly strong companies can go public in almost any market environment
“I think if you're a strong company, you can go public in almost any period of time, as long as the market volatility is not insane, like the great financial crisis. If you are strong, if you're really ready, you probably can go out in almost any environment, r…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:04:43 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Paley: Inflated IPO valuations cause long-term destruction to company culture
“I actually think the IPO inflation of those periods really has long-term detrimental effects. It's very hard to work for a company that went public at ten billion, that today is worth one and a half billion very hard that's right very hard destroying for the w…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:08:33 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Founder Collective's 2010 investment SeatGeek will deliver an amazing liquidity event
“Like, SeatGeek was a 2010 investment. I think it's a great company. Dave led that for us. I think it's gonna ultimately have an amazing liquidity event”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:17:56 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Customers validate startups, not venture capital, says Eric Paley
“Ultimately, your customers validate your business. Venture capital doesn't.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 5:04 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Insight
Eric Paley says capital efficiency gives founders more control and lowers risk
“So, so at Founder Collective, we've been actively talking about what we call efficient entrepreneurship, the efficient use of capital, which ultimately leads to much more founder ownership, much more founder control, and actually, believe it or not, much less …”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 6:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Insight
Paley says early-stage startups must triple their valuation every two years
“I think at the early stage, rough rule of thumb, there's no perfect definition here. You should at least be tripling every two years. Some people would argue you should be doubling every year, which would mean Forex in two years. But just to sort of put a more…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 12:11 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Insight
Founders drive inflated valuation expectations just as much as VCs, says Paley
“Actually, the expectations come as a result of a tough negotiation where, Not just VCs, but founders typically want more capital and higher price. And so it's on both sides, the intention of the VC to get more capital in and incentives to do so, and the desire…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 12:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Insight
Paley says the 'go big or go home' mentality is not required
“I've never believed that go big or go home is a requirement to building a big company.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 15:42 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Opinion
Paley argues stage-specific VC funds are healthier than multi-stage funds
“I would love to see more funds focus on specific stage instead of being life cycle funds. I actually think that would be extremely healthy for the ecosystem broadly.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 18:30 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
20VC Opinion
Eric Paley says tech founders and investors are currently overconfident
“I think in really good times, you feel extremely, you know, probably People feel a little overconfident. Right now, it's probably one of those times”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 2:24 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Frankel and Eric Paley's angel portfolio quadrupled top-quartile VC returns
“We saw that that body of that portfolio, that body of work was performing way better. I mean, four times as well as these top quartile PCs”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 9:04 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Assertion Supported
Eric Paley says most peer seed funds allocate capital like Series B
“A lot of seed funds today, a lot of our peer group, a lot of whom I respect very much they really look like series B funds in terms of where their average dollar goes in. They may be starting very early, but their average dollar is weighted towards series B.”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 12:25 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eric Paley claims Founder Collective is among the top funds globally
“I think our fund is performing you know, people like to say top quartile, top decibel I think we're, I mean, I think our fund's truly one of the very, you know, Count on your hands the number of funds performing as well right now. So I don't know if we're goin…”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 16:20 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
20VC Insight
Paley: Startup Execs Should Compare Real Financials Against Valuation Hype
“If you're coming into a company as a senior executive and you have a CEO is bragging to you about how big their last round was in dollars and how big the post money was, ask to see the financials and compare those financials to what they're claiming in the van…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Paley: Almost all top Founder Collective companies had previously unsuccessful founders
“Almost every one of our best companies, almost every single one, the founder founded something before that wasn't a success or a big success.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 56:16 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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