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a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: NIH funded the Wuhan lab without the capability to audit it
“The NIH had sent money to the Wuhan lab but we couldn't audit it.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 10:00 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Bhattacharya: Leucovorin restores speech in 20% of autistic kids with folate deficiency
“You know, for kids who have this folate deficiency in their brains, that, it actually works. And 20% of the kids, I think, restore speech. Up to 60% of the kids, they get much better.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 2:26 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Bhattacharya: FDA will issue updated pregnancy guidelines for acetaminophen use
“There will be, yeah. So that's something that Dr. McCary, the FDA commissioner is working on. And there'll be also you know, changes in, in like how Medicare pays, Medicare, CMS, Medicare, and Medicaid pay for Leucovorin. So it's a cross-agency collaboration f…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 4:02 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: COVID plexiglass barriers and restaurant masking lacked scientific backing
“You remember the plexiglass that was everywhere? There's still, every time there's see a plexiglass, it makes me, fills me with rage, but that's another story. And there was no science behind that, right? There was the, there was like the, you wear a mask when…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 39:17 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: Weak pandemic school closure policies set children back years educationally
“Closing schools, where again, the science was so weak that it, that and now kids are like years behind in their education as a result, and they'll be paying the price for that for years.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 39:37 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Opinion
Bhattacharya: Scientists destroyed public trust by falsely claiming certainty during COVID
“The problem is that scientists conveyed certainty about things they had no business conveying certainty about, and then changed people's lives for the worse as a result of it during the pandemic.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 45:04 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Bhattacharya: Disparity in MMR and COVID child vaccination rates reflects evidence strength
“So, the uptake of MMR in this country, the MMR vaccine is like, 95% of American parents vaccinate their kids with MMR. The evidence is, and, I think it's like, 13% of American parents vaccinated their kids for the COVID vaccine. I think that reflects the scien…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 48:13 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Insight
Bhattacharya: Academic incentives fail to reward checking other scientists' work
“There's no return for it. Like, if I spend my career checking other people's work, I'm not going to get a professorship at a fancy university.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 7:31 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Insight
Bhattacharya: Peer-reviewed journal publication does not equal scientific truth
“The fact that it's published in a journal doesn't mean it's right. It doesn't mean it's true.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 8:15 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: NIH shifted from funding fresh ideas to older research projects
“Look, if you look at back in the 19 eighties and 19 nineties, the NIH was funding ideas that were like zero, one, two years old. The typical scientific project funded by the NIH in the 2000 teens, it was about 2002 thousand, early 2002 thousand teens was like …”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 12:15 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Opinion
Bhattacharya: Biomedical research is too focused on incremental progress
“I think that's what happened to the culture of biomedical science the last few decades. It's too focused on, like, incremental progress, not enough on enormous.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 13:55 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: Patient activism forced NIH to address 1980s HIV epidemic
“The early rise in HIV did not, was not met with a sufficient response by the NIH. We're talking very, very early in the early eighties of money going to research on this vital topic. And it was the political movement of HIV patients coming together saying, loo…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 19:45 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: NIH will evaluate institute directors on portfolio outcomes, not individual grants
“So what I've done is I've asked the institute directors. I've given them the authority essentially to expand what they can do in terms of the portfolio. I'm not going to judge them to make, just like within Silicon Valley, I'm not going to judge them to s on t…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 29:26 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Bhattacharya: NIH will judge senior researchers' grant applications on mentorship quality
“And I'm gonna start to evaluate Long established investigators, because I think, I do believe they play a pretty fundamental role still but in the, in, in, in, like, how well do they advance the careers of the early career investigators that work with them, ri…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 30:47 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: Transitioning to assistant professor is biomedicine's main bottleneck
“I think the RAID problem isn't that that support for the early, I think we have a lot of portfolios pretty good on that. We could do better, but that's pretty good. The problem is, like, after you've had this career in biomedicine, how do you, like, do you, of…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 33:10 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Opinion
Bhattacharya: MAHA movement is a call for NIH reform
“The Maha Movement is a, it's basically a cry for help from the American people, saying, look, all these crime and disease problems, all these problems with our kids, and we're sick, we're much, doing much worse than folks in, in Europe in terms of our health, …”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 35:05 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Disclosure
Bhattacharya: NIH researchers no longer need supervisory approval to publish papers
“I found out that a lot of folks at the internal investigators at the NIH, in order to publish their work, had to seek permission from their supervisors. I changed that. Like, no more permission. You, if you're an NIH researcher, you have a scientific paper, yo…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 36:42 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Disclosure
Bhattacharya: NIH eliminated paywalls for taxpayer-funded scientific research articles
“They want, they actually had a sort of a if you, a policy where if a regular person wanted to go find a scientific article they had to go, there was a paywall where they pay like 50, a hundred dollars. We got rid of that paywall for NIH-funded research.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 38:04 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: NIH is capping grant applications to block AI-generated submissions
“I'm just to put a new policy in place where I'm limiting the number of new public applications you can have, like to, we can have, you know, six a year, six a cycle or something. We have people writing 60 applications. And very clearly AI-generated. And then w…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 53:02 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Insight
Bhattacharya: Science needs Silicon Valley spirit to destigmatize productive failure
“We should stop punishing scientists who fail. If they fail productively, let them publish in a journal to explain why they're, what they learned from it. Like that, Silicon Valley spirit I think needs to come to science a little bit more.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 12:37 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
NIH awards $50M to 13 research teams for Autism Data Science Initiative
“Fifty million new dollars. 250 teams applied for large research grants, and we're gonna announce today that 13 teams are going to be granted you know, these grants this, for this Autism Data Science Initiative.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 1:29 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Insight
Bhattacharya: Scientists cannot reliably predict which research bets succeed
“Scientists, if you ask us, we're not actually good at predicting the future of the, of future in terms of, like, our will this investment result in productivity? I mean, actually, frankly, neither is Silicon Valley, right? You can't say, you can't promise me t…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 21:11 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: US life expectancy hasn't grown in 15 years
“The United States has seen no increase in life expectancy.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 23:28 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: Median age of first-time NIH grant recipients rose to mid-40s
“So, in the data out of the NIH is that from, in the 19 eighties, If you were 35, you actually had a chance of getting a large NIH grant. Like, that was the median age of the first large NIH grant, you were 35 years old. Now you're in your mid-forties.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 26:41 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: NIH must reward universities that transition postdocs into professors
“I think we have to do better at that, and we have to reward universities that are better at that.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 33:42 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: NIH will openly admit when evidence for pandemic guidance is lacking
“God forbid there's another pandemic during my watch, and then I'm asked, okay, how should we manage is, is it right to wear a mask or something, right? And I don't, there's no good scientific evidence. I'm gonna just say that.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 42:36 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: Zostavax shingles vaccine reduces Alzheimer's cognitive decline risk by 20-30%
“A colleague of mine at Stanford did, has this like fantastic paper, he published, set of papers he published using an old shingles vaccine. Called Zostavax. He found that in excellent observational studies that it would, that if you had Zostavax, it reduces th…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 49:19 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
NIH Director Bhattacharya intends to shift NIH funding toward ambitious early-career researchers
“I would love to, that the, to make that happen through the sort of the power of the NIH, to allow the Max Perutz of the world, the new ones who are now, ah, ah, sitting there with great ideas, to be able to ha, to, like, try them out and change the world with …”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 56:17 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Bhattacharya: US average body weight decreased last year for the first time
“We had, we saw a reduction in average body weight in the, in this country the first time in, you know, decades last year.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 57:35 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bhattacharya: Public will trust science if shown transparent data and evidence
“When we talk to them in ways where we show respect for their intelligence with data, allow people to disagree, but then have the evidence right there in front of people, I think people, people will respond with trust where the evidence actually leads.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 0:04 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Supported
Bhattacharya: US has worse preterm birth outcomes than Europe
“Like, we have worse outcomes in the United States than Europe does.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 5:05 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Insight
Bhattacharya: Replication ought to be the standard for truth in science
“The standard for truth in science ought to be replication.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 6:25 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Bhattacharya: Nobel winners' scientific ideas age half as fast as average researchers'
“So I did a study a few years back where I looked at it turns out that the age of the ideas in your published work ages by every, by one year for every year of chronological age. So my ideas get one year older every year that I age. The very best scientists fig…”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 27:20 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Bhattacharya: 40,000 people contracted HIV in the US last year
“40,000 people got HIV last year.”
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 24:17 Taking Bold Bets: NIH and the Future of Biomedical Science
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