The Ledger, every show

“Yeah, Microsoft's not in the race, bro. Where, where are they? They, I know, but they're getting owned.”

“I believe every one of these IDEs are done. It's dead over and gone and dead. I just think it's, why? Why? It doesn't, like, just imagine the concept of you. Like, I remember when I learned Bloomberg. I had to, like, watch videos to learn about all the random …”

“Google, I would argue, is going to free cash with zero. I think Meta will go to free cash with zero.”

“The adjustment period is the big problem, because all the stocks are priced, like, they're not gonna be mainframes”

“I think coding is a little harder, if I'm being honest with you, and you're telling me the hard one got automated. Why can't the easy one get automated? So I started to ask myself, how much can we do? And the answer is, it feels like a skill issue.”

“I have a controversial opinion that Claude does not do RL on the agent swarms or agent team.”

“My experience is the 2.5 swarm actually improves the model's performance meaningfully. The agent team makes it meaningfully worse because there's clearly not RL done.”

“I mean, this is like too much information to gather. It's like a lifetime of work. It's like a PhD project. I did it in a day.”

“I just can't imagine if I was an entry level worker doing data analysis that a 22 year old, an average 22 year old would murder the hell out of a relatively well thought out agentic system. And so you're like, yeah, that job actually does seem at risk.”

“I would argue what we'll see in the 24 month view, it will be a base level, I think. I think. Cloud code, co-work, whatever is going to be a base level of all information work very soon.”

“If you didn't pay any like human cognition to get there, I don't think you're going to be a great reviewer. One of the reasons why, you know, what makes that, that human feet, that loop well is because once upon a time you did that and you could make the three…”

“We've well massively passed the internet in terms of the absolute size of the build-out. It's not even close.”

“I sandbagged the ever-living share of that. I just believe 25 is, Very, like, I, like, it's like a, the rate it's on is like, whatever, 50 or something like that, but I think, I feel, I wanted to give a 95 confidence interval. I think 25 is within the 95 confi…”

“I think Oracle was irresponsible because of the magnitude of what they did. It's like, the thing is like, I think the slack they should have done it, but like the whole setup, in my opinion, on Oracle is own goal. They messed up the messaging. They messed up t…”

“I think Ironwood a V seven is the peak gap between on Between TCO, between NVIDIA and TPU, right?”

“I've done the math. It could be like, it's like a trillion. It's like a trillion. It's like a trillion or something like that. Assuming it gets like 30% market share or something like that.”

“V-A we just don't think will be as competitive to Ruben, and that's when your special window starts to close.”

“And then boom, you're just looking at the supply demand and you're like, yeah, this is not gonna catch up for like two years.”

“We, I, our posts, our conclusion is like, we could see DRAM prices like go up a hundred percent again. Like it's gonna be the point where, and this is like also example, like really interesting in the whole thing. Another hundred percent I think is demand dest…”

“The reason why my hit rate for every AI accelerator trip is, like, very, like, I just don't believe in them is because, like, where are they? Until Cerebrus and Grok, honestly, they were all considered failures, and even then, we're like, what are they gonna d…”

“You feel like we might actually be seeing a CPU shortage partially because of this refresh cycle, but partially also because like I legitimately believe the cloud code Cloud code is increasing software creation and then on top of that, there is real demand fro…”

“Memory prices are going to go up so much that we're going to have to choose which exactly. That's the crazy part to me. Historically, memory has never been a constraint like this where I said, actually, you're not going to get your low end. You're not going to…”

“All the SaaS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they've built on top of it.”

“Honestly, Anthropic has no free users, or like on a relative basis, so their margins are ironically like, kind of on a like-to-like basis, kind of not as good as you think.”

“I think at the end of the year, they're gonna be like, yeah, they spent two hundred billion.”

“Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're going to be like ish on time.”

“I think they're gonna run out of Tranium, and the answer is, like, what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's, like, locked up? It's NVIDIA.”

“The reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time, like, image models essentially always gain share, video models always gain share, like Studio Ghibli moment, and then obviously ChatGPT. This is the first, like, new mo…”

“Like at this point H 100 pricing has massively firmed up. B 200 pricing definitely has super firmed up. And like, hey, there's clearly demand.”

“Is your model, you know, being five percent more accurate, really going to ever make a good investment decision or not? No, never, not once. Like no one's saying, oh yeah, my estimate is always one cent more tighter than everyone else. That's why I'm good at s…”

“Sell side as a concept is very broken. If you're talking about waves and things that are changing sell side in a lot of ways is this hereditary child of like, let's say, 30 or 40 years of banking. Where you had you know, a company go public, so you needed some…”

“I love watching exponential trends. And I've never seen one even remotely at this rate. You would art, you know, four percent in like two weeks.”

“Cloud for Excel is much worse than cloud code using Python to use the Excel skills to then deposit into.”

“We've hit some capability that you can do, you can build these much bigger blocks now. And those bigger blocks are not just like the single line of code. It might actually be a business.”

“It always just ends up being in the middle, so it just gets eaten by one or the other. I think of that like middleware layer, unless if it's a really, really, really compelling case, Often dies”

“Each bit of HBM is essentially a four X multiplier onto DRAM.”

“This CXL technology that kind of never really took off is going to take off just because what they're going to do is they're going to take DDR four. They're going to take the oldest, every bit of spare memory they can find, and they're going to put them into r…”

“I don't think Gastown's gonna work out. I think it's gonna be Agent Swarms.”

“There's, they're doing 30,000 people at Accenture. [216] John Coogan: What do you mean? [216] Doug O'Laughlin: To like, [217] Doug O'Laughlin: 30, 30,000 people at Accenture are going to learn how to cloud code.”

“I think, four, six was a little disappointing, if I'm being honest with you.”

“I think you have to pay for the singularity, and I think it's going to be enterprise that does it.”

“Codex 5.2 took so long and just never billed for me. And it's like all the Codex hype during, like, it just never worked for me, man. Like it never one shot projects like Opus 4.5 did.”

“I think sometimes if you have done, if you do it together, it commingles the information to the point where it becomes biased or susceptible. Opus 4.6, as you know, is like super sycophantic. Like it loves to like say yes.”

“To just run the swarm, I think it's like a 16 node of H-one hundreds.”

“I would be really shocked if it was all in one go. That's my vibe. Where it's like, it's all in one instantaneous up down. I think it's going to look like some multiple cycles.”

“I think on the infrastructure side, or sorry, on the supply chain side, bar none, NVIDIA is the best. They own the entire supply chain. They really do.”

“I don't think it's like the galaxy brain software and we're very Far from there, because if you actually play with these tools a lot, context rod is real.”

“That's why Cowork and Codex are gonna, like, probably be what actually happens. I think it's really fun to, like, play around in the, like, whatever, one percent adopter, and I'm really enjoying it, but I just don't think Like, yeah, it's gonna be co-worker Co…”