The Ledger, every show

“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of Tenex this year, exiting the year, call it roughly a hundred billion of ARR, and now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in twenty-twenty-seven, and we can debate w…”

“Last week we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence.”

“With the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their total defeat.”

“An open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. You know what they're going to say? They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to close.”

“The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to kind of get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.”

“The latest we heard is Anthropic is now over eighty billion of ARR. Started the year at 10. It had forecast a hundred billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that that would be impossible to achieve. Now it looks like they're gonna do it with a …”

“I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models.”

“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”

“Well, I think Chamath is right that the data centers become very unpopular, probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright.”

“I'm gonna go for five percent. Within a rounding year, I believe five percent.”

“AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it.”

“There's not going to be a federal bailout for AI. Not going to happen.”

“The next time the Democrats have the trifecta, they will absolutely get rid of the filibuster.”

“So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November fifth”

“I think telegram is next on the hit list.”

“Figma has no interest in competing with Photoshop. They're not going to compete. They, they're much more interested in AI. They're much more interested in doing things like prompt to design to code. They're not interested in building, you know, a Photoshop com…”

“What's going to happen is that with all of these different bodies issuing new regulations, it's going to get more and more burdensome on technology companies until the point where they cry out for some sort of rationalization of this regime. They're going to s…”

“The one thing I believe about Trump is that he really does believe the election was stolen. And I think you will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he is knowingly lying about that. And as a result of this, you can never prove this case.”

“And that is what we're going to end up with. The only difference is that it's going to be implemented by force and Ukraine will be destroyed in the process.”

“He's not gonna invade NATO countries because he's so outmatched.”

“Ukraine's gonna be neutral, they can't be part of NATO, they get some security guarantees from the West in exchange for that.”

“I think it's going to result in some form of independence for these disputed territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, right?”

“What is the accomplishment that's going to really put him in that league, and you'd have to say it's the annexation of Taiwan. I mean, that's the thing that he must be looking to do before, you know, his time runs out.”

“This anthropic IPO is going to be four times the wealth generation event that all previous San Francisco IPOs were.”

“I do think that the Democrats, I think it is legitimate to say that they are favored to win the house. I think the Senate right now is a toss up and I would say that the Republicans will ultimately keep it if I had to predict right now.”

“Meanwhile, you're seeing Anthropic break into the seventies at 70 plus billion of ARR. Their forecast was to 10 X this year. From ten billion of ARR to a hundred billion, I think most people are saying they will exceed that, a 110, a 120.”

“They're going to sell it at a fraction of the cost globally... China is going to be there within one or two years.”

“And within three to six months, all the major frontier labs and including Chinese models will have cyber capabilities.”

“In fact, within six months or so, all the frontier models are going to have mythos level cyber capability, but it's impressive that open AI got this GPT, 5.5 cyber out so quickly.”

“They're going to end this year. At 80 to a hundred billion, at least on the current trajectory.”

“So number one is with respect to this market for code or code tokens, whatever you want to call it might be five percent today, meaning five percent of the codes, AI generated versus human generated. I think it's going to 95%. I mean, I bet any amount of money…”

“CapEx for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is six hundred billion dollars just from four companies. That's a roughly two percent tailwind to GDP growth right there.”

“And that's why I think that if we defeat this in 26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good, it just means it's gonna come back In a new form in 28, but with much more broad based union support, all the unions are going to do it together.”

“I think we're headed for a gangbusters. 2026 rates are coming down.”

“By next year, China's gonna be making millions of chips.”

“I think we will eventually get some federal preemption, and I think the question will just again be whether we preempt heavy or preempt light.”

“And I think what that's going to do is encourage. Applicants to actually be these higher paid, higher skilled jobs that the program is supposed to be for instead of these lower end IT shop shops.”

“And so I just think this idea that boom, 20% of the workforce is going to be unemployed in two years. I just don't think that it's going to work that way.”

“We're not going to be able to wipe out entire major departments of the government that are cabinet level positions. I don't think that's in the cards.”

“They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator, and they're probably gonna become a five billion dollar company now. Sorry, five trillion dollar company.”

“Buyers should be responsible for paying their own brokers, and if you do that, I think you'll knock out half the fees of this industry.”

“I think it's pretty clear that OpenAI trained Sora using, you know, available data on the internet, and that probably included YouTube.”

“The BRICS countries are about to introduce an alternative currency that's based on gold.”

“They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take till 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.”

“I think it's like, yeah, it doesn't seem like a decade. It's a decade.”

“The numbers are, it's gonna be under six hundred million by the year 2100”

“I think the idea that this leads to gay marriage being overturned, I don't see it. It's just you know, it, maybe it's not impossible, but I just don't buy it.”

“Zelensky tweeted out a video where he basically was saying this plant has been attacked. It's on fire. It's going to be Chernobyl times 10 for all of Europe. And then the foreign minister of Ukraine came out with another statement just like that simultaneously…”