The Ledger, every show

“And then if you then think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in you know, potentially we could be north of a hundred billion dollars by September.”

“The leading LLMs in, in China are probably six months behind where we are in the U.S. In terms of the capability of their models, but they're 10 X cheaper.”

“So we had a look at our data and we found 45 investments that have returned a billion dollars to the single fund that invested and were also fund returners.”

“More than 50% hadn't returned one X capital. And so these are funds that are more than, that are 10 years old now, at least 10 years old now, hadn't returned one X capital. There was just 6.6% that had generated three X net DPI. And just 2.6% that had generate…”

“Ultimately the markets that they're playing in, and the share of the economic pie that technology is going to capture, in our view, is only going to increase. And so that gives us confidence that whatever the multiples are at the time of exit, the directionall…”

“I think the impact that will have is that the concentration of returns in venture is going to be even smaller as they're going to be fewer companies that ultimately account for that, that performance.”

“So, again, going back to some of the academic data that's out there, it does suggest that that first success is actually random, but once you've had that first success, There's a high likely or higher likelihood that you can then leverage it and start that vir…”

“We looked at what's the performance of the early stage US funds from our core managers from 2005 onwards. What's the performance of the growth funds from our core managers from 2005 onwards? What's the performance of the non-US funds from 2005 onwards from our…”

“From newer managers, one of the things we look at are where are they holding their marks, and generally we've seen the new managers holding last round value marks, and not writing anything down, where it's the more established managers that are perhaps earlier…”

“My sense is that it's going to go back to the average. It's going to go back to that sort of 60%. So I think there's a lot of pain still to be had. So that's not just companies who are going to get see their values reduced. I think there's a lot that ultimatel…”

“If you're talking about, you know, the people that are raising multiple billions of dollars to do you know, to do the crossover deals, the late stage private rounds, Then I think that is more of a capital allocation exercise than it is a kind of craft business…”

“Between 2020 and 2024, top one percent exit started at ten billion dollars. We updated those numbers in February this year, twenty billion dollars. We just updated them yesterday. It's now at thirty two billion dollars. So we've tenxed over the space of kind o…”

“Venture is a power law industry, and it's one percent of the exits that ultimately generate the bulk of the returns created by the entire industry globally. So we're looking at around 30 companies a year that generate more than half of the total exit value for…”

“So even if we start to see IPOs in the second half of this year, it's going to be six months before those shares become freely tradable and again, it will probably be another 12 to 18 months before those positions ultimately get fully distributed.”

“So it's funny, one of my colleagues was at a conference yesterday that was run by the UK Venture Capital Association. And they surveyed the audience saying, you know, what do you think about AI valuations today? You know, too high, about right, you know, too l…”

“Time diversification in a fund is so important. And so we look to invest all of our funds across a three year period.”

“We want to be sort of roughly fifty-fifty between early and growth. It's a challenge to manage that if we end up being sort of, 45, 55, I think we're comfortable with that. We don't want to be 30, 70.”

“Historically for an early stage fund that's been 60% of companies don't return one X cost.”

“It's getting harder, you know, particularly where, you know, you mentioned firms that have, you know, big IR departments and it's harder to have that interaction with individual partners. You've got to work at it more.”

“One of the things we've seen with traditional life science investing, when we look at our database, is that there's very much a limit on the sort of multiples that you can achieve on a single investment. The best we see consistently is around the 10 X, and it'…”

“From last year to this year, 40% of the companies that were on that list last year dropped off.”

“One of the mistakes we made in the late nineties was deploying our funds too quickly in, I think we had one fund that was fully invested in 15 months. And it was the worst fund we had. So it was in, you know, the 1999 vintage fund.”