The Ledger, every show

“For a while we were seeing Chinese internet companies, like, they didn't want to beat earnings. Because if you beat earnings, your stock goes up too much. You know, you might be flagging that, like, you're over-earning”

“If you look at the underlying margins of these companies, they are not the margins that you see in a commoditized industry. You know, the gross margins are quite high.”

“At this point, you probably have four or five LLMs that will be relevant in the long term. I don't see that changing. Not that there's not sufficient talent out there. It's just that the capital required to get into this business is too great in these companie…”

“Anthropa took a different approach and just said, we are going to focus on enterprise. They tried consumer early on, but it became clear they didn't have traction, so then they just went all in the enterprise.”

“At some point in the next five to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, I think that, ah, they're likely to insource the compute.”

“Over the next 10 years, I think the business, these hyperscalers, AWS, Azure, will grow fast. I think the margins, my guess, will be challenged, both because the businesses are getting a lot more capital intensive, because AI is capital intensive, more capital…”

“In our letter, I said, like, there are going to be a lot of shorts, some longs because of AI. And software's the first one.”

“So I think I mean, systems of record are going to be difficult to displace. I think companies, while You know, it's neat to create software for small productivity enhancements. If you really want to run your entire business on something like an ERP system or a…”

“You know, betting that scaling laws are gonna stop is, like, a really low probability assumption. I mean, there's just nothing to suggest that's the case. In fact, everything suggests the opposite”

“It is likely that at some point in the future, everything that we do is, ah, you know, arbitraged away by AI.”

“First of all, we never came close to going into business. That was just nonsense.”

“I think that the cost, they've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time, like months, few years they are going to be dramatically cheaper than, Any other form of delivering broadband.”

“Japan's probably gonna become a military power at some point in the future again”

“If that supply chain were to get screwed up or disremediated, we would have, like, a, Incredibly bad economy. On the order of, like, depression type economy.”

“If I hire somebody laterally, who's a portfolio manager in another fund, that's rarely been successful, almost, almost never.”

“I think that gas turbines are going to be in shortage for a very long time.”

“Electricity demand in the United States grew at zero percent for the last 20 years. And so, if you think about the next 20 years, I think electricity demand will grow at four percent.”

“G Renova trades at two x the enterprise value of Siemens energy, just to give you a sense of like, and ultimately, there's no reason why the margin should be higher at G Renova. The revenue base is the same.”

“At some point, they're going to say like, well, we're asymptoting out, like the returns on this new investment are actually not working. That's when I think you'll see a pretty big correction.”

“And I think that will continue in a way that probably surprises people, in that like, I think SpaceX will probably capture more of the global, Telecommunications market than people expect.”

“Like, I look at it and say, like, I think the business can triple Without having to make any big bets about people traveling 30 minutes across the world or, you know, data centers in space.”

“We never came close to going into business, never had margin calls, never.”

“Now, if I had held that short portfolio, forget like from the top, if I just held from the end of 2020, I mean, they underperformed massively.”

“It has to be the case that if you believe in scaling laws and you believe in AI, that economic growth will be very powerful. I mean, this is the ultimate productivity tool. And what productivity does is allows you to grow while having disinflation, which is li…”

“I think some understanding of we need 10 to 20 years to replicate this supply chain.”

“Now, like, if I hire somebody from private equity, it takes about three years for them to really be, like, contributing to the one.”

“Our short alpha since that time, and since we implemented the more diverse portfolio you referenced, our short alpha has been as good or better”

“It's just very, very good business that's, and the starting multiple is pretty reasonable, and I think, you know, I can grow earnings well into the teens for 10 years.”

“Siemens Energy and GE Vinova are basically the same company. Like, there's no two companies I've ever looked at that are more similar. They have almost the same revenue, dollar revenue, I think it's like, 45, 50.”

“I think if you look back in history, 70% of the time that you have this kind of, like, major breakthrough technology, there is a stock market bubble.”

“Iterate on product faster, have better engineers, and I think that those banks are going to increasingly take market share.”

“By 2016, I was managing, ah, just over half of Viking's capital, somewhere 55, something percent of Viking's capital.”

“There's a couple called Clean Harbors, which I like a lot, which is, they do hazardous waste, and they own the majority of the incinerators in the United States. You can't really build more incinerators because of NIMBY.”