The Ledger, every show

“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”

“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”

“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”

“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”

“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”

“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”

“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”

“So if you look at that estimate, you know, starting in 20, 27, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for Nvidia. Right? Less than 10% CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA. They have by 20 29, them doing three hundred and sixty billion in revenue compared to t…”

“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”

“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”

“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”

“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”

“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”

“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”

“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”

“By our analysis, for example, just Amazon, Spent over a hundred billion dollars on AWS invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.”

“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”

“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”

“I think you're gonna see the dam really break on this year, particularly in the back half of this year. And the reason is because people gotta raise capital, right?”

“There are going to be a couple of monster rounds, I think announced next week, like that are going to make this one look like kids play.”

“This is not a blood in the streets moment. It feels catastrophic because we have growth names that are down 40, 50, 60, 70% in the public markets. But look at where they are compared to where we were in January of 2020. For most of these companies, it's just g…”

“You're going to see if Prop. 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB five Example.”

“So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA. Right. When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this computer, they're building it out to sell to the people that we you know, that we ju…”

“In fact, in the last, I think, five days, 1.5 million families and kids have claimed their account.”

“There are a hundred nuclear power plants under construction in China. Power is not their limit.”

“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”

“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”

“I think we may have four IPOs in the pipeline in the next four to six months. The rumors out there around companies like Cerebris and CoreWeave and Databricks, those are all in our portfolios.”

“So it seems to me and our team's best guess is that Llama four is going to come in the back half of the year. Right. Maybe in November, December timeframe.”

“And shockingly, IPOs in two, in twenty-twenty-four, twenty-twenty-one through twenty-twenty-four are fewer than during the great financial crisis in 2008.”

“The Fed has said its forecast for next year is 1.5% on GDP. I think that's probably rosy. Given, ah, the things that we're seeing in the world, 20% credit cards, 10% car loans, eight percent mortgages are having a deleterious impact on consumption.”

“We destroyed 15 trillion. You said this on pod 80. We destroyed 15 trillion of household net worth in the last five months.”

“They're not going to get the Senate either.”

“Michigan's gonna go to Trump.”

“Is anybody prepared to, I, I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for…”

“China has a hundred nuclear fission plants under construction, and we were sitting on our hands, so I think, if anything, they've helped jumpstart that conversation and get us moving faster, and I think that's good for all of us.”

“I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market, right?”

“And I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year”

“Five times as many women die of a heart attack each year in this country as die of breast cancer.”

“If you look over the last 15 years, if I'm an owner of Booking.com, I was only diluted by about five percent. If I was an owner of Salesforce or Expedia, I was diluted by about 25%.”

“What are the two technology companies Buffett bought in the public markets? Apple. Apple and Snowflake.”

“Dispersion collapsed between the best cohort and the worst cohort of software companies last year.”

“We only have 30% of people who belong to the ownership society.”

“So we have almost a third of the entire share base of the company that is available for sale on day one.”

“Markets are now down 15% during this period since, ah, quote unquote, liberation day on April second.”

“The individual tax cuts, which included increasing the child tax credit and the standard deduction it's all, it's worth about a hundred and fifty billion dollars a year to put it in perspective, right? That's about 60 basis points on US GDP.”

“The four or one K match in this country, the corporate contribution annually is seventy five billion dollars.”

“In 2000, if you aggregate the total enterprise value of companies that were principally driving their revenue from databases, it's about a trillion dollars in market cap in 2000.”