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CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: AI CapEx infrastructure will be overbuilt
“The CapEx will be overbuilt. Infrastructure, highways, all these things, you ultimately in a CapEx cycle, you just don't know if today you're in the third inning or eighth inning.”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 33:21 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: Many perceived obvious AI winners will become obvious losers
“There will be a lot of companies that look like obvious winners of all this that I think will be obvious losers.”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 33:42 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meli: Small-cap universe deteriorated due to acquisitions, PE, and fewer IPOs
“The problem is that asset pool is not as rich as it used to be. If you looked at the small cap index today, it's a lot of biotech, a lot of unprofitable companies. A lot of the big conglomerates took out a lot of the best franchises there. Private equity owns …”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 34:33 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meli: Spinoffs and special situations have become priced more rationally
“You didn't used to have dedicated distress funds of the size you have today. The special situations were really interesting. The Joel Greenblatt stuff. You could see a spinoff, a big fund house would get a stock, sell the stock, Indiscriminately. And you could…”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 12:51 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: Long-only analyst seats will decline as capital moves to indexing
“Capital has gone to indexing. It's flowed out of a lot of the long-only space. There's less hiring there in general. Fewer seats are going to be there over time, and it's gone to systematic strategies and more pot-oriented strategies.”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 22:26 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meli: Capital Has Shifted Away from Broad Opportunistic Hedge Fund Mandates
“That doesn't really exist anymore in broad strokes. It's been diced up. You've got the distress funds, you've got the pods, you've got some single managers left, but there's not so much capital going to broad opportunistic mandates. It's become more specialize…”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 27:11 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meli: SaaS multiples collapsed from 40-60x revenue five years ago
“Five years ago, SaaS companies, all these trading at 40 to 50 to 60 times revenue at one point. Today, it's hard to give away a lot of SaaS companies.”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 33:35 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: Home building and building products will recover in three to five years
“I think there are things in that space that if you close your eyes three to five years, the home building industry, the building products industries, there will be a better day ahead.”
Adrian Meli Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 45:07 Adrian Meli – Active Equity Excellence at Eagle (EP.459)
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