Adrian Meli of Eagle Capital Management discusses how the growth of dedicated distressed funds eliminated easy arbitrage opportunities in corporate spinoffs.
Opinion
Meli: Public equity markets may be growing less efficient due to indexing
“I have a sneaking hypothesis that I'm hesitant to say out here because there's a high probability I'm wrong, but I will say it. I feel like the market's becoming a little less efficient in certain areas, and I'll explain it.”
Opinion
Meli: Talent across PE, hedge funds, and long-only firms is identical
“One of the funny things about the industry is everybody looks at somebody at a private equity firm or Citadel or a hedge fund or long-only and thinks they're so different. They're the same people. They're just moving around seats.”
Insight
Meli: Annual bonus models create acute, distracting short-term focus
“The way it actually works is you get your base salary, you wait all year long for your bonus, and you're thinking you can't focus on anything else at the end of the year, and then you get your bonus, and for one or two days, you're like, okay, I got my bonus, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: AI CapEx infrastructure will be overbuilt
“The CapEx will be overbuilt. Infrastructure, highways, all these things, you ultimately in a CapEx cycle, you just don't know if today you're in the third inning or eighth inning.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Meli: Many perceived obvious AI winners will become obvious losers
“There will be a lot of companies that look like obvious winners of all this that I think will be obvious losers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meli: Small-cap universe deteriorated due to acquisitions, PE, and fewer IPOs
“The problem is that asset pool is not as rich as it used to be. If you looked at the small cap index today, it's a lot of biotech, a lot of unprofitable companies. A lot of the big conglomerates took out a lot of the best franchises there. Private equity owns …”