Everything Rafi Garabedian said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Garabedian: Deploying hundreds of small containerized electrolyzers is highly cost-inefficient
“The idea of integrating onto a site hundreds and hundreds of very small containerized electrolyzers, it turns out to be quite expensive. And in no small part, it's expensive because it's very hard to drive the cost out of those units, but also because the foot…”
Garabedian: China's low-cost solar manufacturing playbook will fail in hydrogen
“So long story short I don't think the same game that worked in solar works in green hydrogen.”
Garabedian: Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, and Cummins margin models will fail in hydrogen
“If you look at the incumbent electrolyzer producers they're the big industrials. I'm talking about companies like Siemens and ThyssenKrupp Cummins, who are not in the business of mercilessly driving cost out of their products, right? They're heavy industrial s…”
Garabedian: Nel and Plug Power lack the technical innovation to cut costs
“Then there are kind of some pure plays, companies like Nell, like Plug Power's not quite a pure play, but you could put them in that category. And these are folks who Haven't shown the desire maybe, or the ability to be highly innovative technically to drive c…”
Garabedian: Western green hydrogen plant capital costs doubled to over $3/W
“We've seen those capital costs go from You know, an early promise of something like 1500 dollars a kilowatt, buck 50 a watt, to now even over three dollars a watt of capital cost.”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen prices European plants just over $1,000/kW installed
“So, we're pricing in the European market today with a total installed cost just north of a thousand dollars a kilowatt. Inclusive of EPC. That's everything from the substation, the civil works, all of our equipment, the installation and commissioning.”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen will beat fossil hydrogen costs by early 2030s
“Now, if you take our technology roadmap a little further out, and you think about scale and also improvements we have in our, coming in our technology, along with what we expect to see in terms of continued cost reduction in wind and solar, we think we can get…”
Garabedian: Financing hard tech does not get easier until building 4-5 units
“It's super hard to finance something that big As a first of a kind. In fact, it's hard to finance as a second or a third of a kind too. It doesn't get easier until you've probably built four or five of them.”
Garabedian: Global electrolytic hydrogen has entered disillusionment mode
“It's not a seller's market in electrolytic hydrogen anymore. At least not for the time being. We've definitely come out of hype mode, and we're in hydrogen disillusionment mode right now, I think, globally.”
Garabedian: Large-scale green hydrogen is not bankable today
“Large scale green hydrogen is not bankable today.”
Garabedian: Fertilizer industry lacks motivation to decarbonize
“The fertilizer industry has no compulsion or real kind of soft motivation to decarbonize.”
Garabedian: Electrolyzers at $2,000/kW are unviable without massive subsidies
“Electrolyzers today in the 2000 dollars a kilowatt range, they're too expensive to produce economically viable
Green hydrogen. And we're seeing this in projects all through the world. So where green hydrogen projects are being built, they're being built at pri…”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen cuts electrolyzer equipment costs by 50 percent
“Our technology and our product
Reduces that cost by 50% and gets us into the ballpark where green hydrogen becomes economically viable with moderate subsidy and support, and once we get to scale, it'll get even better from there.”
Garabedian: ERCOT green power prices doubled to $65/MWh amid AI demand
“If you look in West Texas and you were to sign a solar and wind kind of affirmed green power purchase agreement in, in Texas and Urquhart territory three years ago, you might've paid 35 dollars a megawatt hour for that product. Today you're paying 65, maybe mo…”
Garabedian: EPC accounts for roughly half of hydrogen plant installed costs
“And in a typical project like we're discussing, roughly half of the total installed cost goes to the EPC.”
Garabedian: Hydrogen is a molecule, not a solution to energy problems
“I also don't really care much for hydrogen. It's a molecule. It's an element. It's lovely. I don't see it in and of itself as a solution to any of the problems we have in energy.”
Garabedian: Decarbonization requires multiple terawatts of new electrolysis capacity
“The sectors were looking to decarbonize with kind of green molecules, so-called green molecules. If you measure them in terms of electrolysis or generating capacity, we're talking multiple terawatts of needed new energy supply, new power supply to cross into t…”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen funded hardware demos almost entirely with VC
“This is almost all venture financing. So we raised quite a bit of money from the venture community thankfully at a time when again there was a lot of interest in green hydrogen which gave us the ability to self-finance and move very, very quickly.”
Garabedian: China cannot undercut US and European electrolyzer markets like solar
“Now, the geopolitics are different now than they were in the early days of solar, and China can't play that game again. At least not in Europe and in the US.”
Garabedian: Green hydrogen is slowly emerging from the trough of disillusionment
“Green hydrogen went through this just incredible Ballooning of the bubble, and I would say since then the bubble has burst, and you know, I can't say whether right now we're at the nadir of green hydrogen hype, or whether we're starting to come out of it. It f…”
Garabedian: Unsubsidized Green Hydrogen Costs Roughly $6/kg in Southern Europe
“If you look at the cost of making a kilogram of green hydrogen today, let's say in southern Europe, it might be unsubsidized. It might be maybe six dollars U.S. A kilo. I think rough numbers, that might be about right. That can be broken down Roughly fifty-fif…”
Chinese electrolyzer systems in Europe cost just over $1,500/kW installed
“We see integrators building or promising to build using Chinese equipment systems in the European market at a total installed cost, you know, right around maybe a little north of 1500 dollars a kilowatt.”
Garabedian: Subsidized green molecule market is unsustainable long term
“That is not a sustainable market in my view in the long term. It's a necessary first step for the P to X or green molecule industry to get going.”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen can produce Brazilian ammonia at $700-$750/ton today
“Brazil's grid is around 90% green already. And power prices at least away from the coastal economic centers are quite low. 30 to 35 dollars a megawatt hour. That in and of itself allows us to make on the order of seven to 750 dollar a ton of ammonia today with…”