Louis-Vincent Gave
Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal. On 1 show, 3 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
founderexecutiveanalystinvestorauthor@gave_vincent ↗LinkedIn ↗web.gavekal.com ↗
In 1999, Gave co-founded Gavekal alongside Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky, building it into a global macro research and asset management firm. He is widely recognized for his analysis of Asian financial markets, emerging economies, and de-dollarization trends, and has authored seven books.
1shows
3appearances
72statements
24resolved
13supported
4contradicted
54%fully supported
1said about them ↓ Everything Louis-Vincent Gave said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Gave: Europe's Energy Policy May Have Emboldened Russia's Invasion
“I think if Europe hadn't followed such a boneheaded energy policy, perhaps Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.”
Gave: US supply disruptions from tariffs will be as bad as COVID-19
“We saw this kind of discrepancy during COVID, and it took the economies a year to get back on their footing. This time, it's going to be just as bad. I don't see how the economy doesn't grind to a standstill. These strict discrepancies are going to be very uni…”
Gave: US-China negotiations will result in China leaving the Americas and US leaving Asia
“This, I think, will end up being the negotiations with China. China, you get out of the Americas, and we'll get out of Asia. That is a trade that Xi Jinping will be very happy to make.”
Gave: China does not need a currency devaluation
“China doesn't need a devaluation. China's problem is first and foremost that consumer and business confidence has been crushed.”
Gave: Chinese competition will eliminate profitability across the AI sector
“We also know that when China enters the room, profits walk out, so there's not going to be any profit in AI forever.”
Gave: US workforce obesity and opioid use severely constrain manufacturing reshoring
“The whole lockdown thing made a couple of problems that are inherent to the US and to the US labor force worse, most notably obesity, which prevents a lot of people from holding the type of manufacturing jobs where you have to be sitting up and doing a lot of …”
Gave: As Energy Prices Rise, Europe Will Go Bust
“As the energy price goes up, Europe will go bust.
The only question is at what price?”
Gave: Non-US growth will outperform US growth as the dollar weakens
“I think we're living through the end of the year of US exceptionalism. After a 15 year standing run, the US dollar is now rolled over. I think most people's portfolio is on position for a world of weaker dollar, and one where growth outside of the US is going …”
Gave: China and Europe expand fiscal stimulus as US consolidates
“Now the U.S. Is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerator.”
Gave: Investors should aggressively buy undervalued Latin American assets
“That leaves me, actually, super bullish to Latin America. It was very interesting that in these tariffs, Latin America was completely spared. Not only did they get a blanket 10%, but pretty much everything they export, whether copper, silver, lithium, et ceter…”
Gave: Chinese distressed debt at 10 cents on the dollar offers amazing risk-reward
“The one that stands out the most to me is Chinese distressed debt. Chinese distressed debt was trading at 50, 60 cents on the dollar. When Russia invaded Ukraine, everybody decided China's uninvestable. Everybody redeemed. There was no markets. This stuff is s…”
Gave: Devaluing the renminbi within six months would be a big mistake
“James, I think here we're at a super interesting crossroad where if in the next six months China does devalue the renminbi, it would have been a big policy mistake.”
Gave: Private Equity and Credit Report 50% Gains Amid Flat Broader Markets
“Over that same three-year period, against loans and equity markets that are flat to down, the private equity and the private credit managers are nominally up 50%.”
Gave: Pension Funds and Endowments Will Relentlessly Rebalance Away From Privates
“They've outperformed so much that the rebalancing that you're going to see in every pension fund, in every endowment, away from these strategies back towards listed equities or back towards, frankly, just bonds, it should be relentless.”
Gave: Emerging Markets and Listed Equities Are the 10-Year Trade as Capital Flows In
“Today, if you're a young aspiring money manager, you should be launching an equity fund, you should be launching an EM fund, and even if you're doing it with very little money, that's the trade for the next 10 years. That's where the capital is going to go, be…”
Gave: Foreign Appetite for US Corporate Debt Rollovers Will Be Limited
“The second half of this year and the first half of next year, the rollovers are gargantuan. At its time, when the appetite of foreigners for US dollar assets It's going to be very, very limited. Selling bonds in a weakening currency is very hard. Spreads are a…”
Gave: Structured Products in Private Banks Create Catastrophic Hidden Downside Leverage
“My fear is that over the past 10 years, private banks all around the world, private banks in Europe, in Asia, in America, Have made a lot of money selling structured products to private clients that essentially the clients where it's selling vault. They sold p…”
Gave: 2022 diversified portfolio losses are larger than in 2008
“So actually the total capital losses this time around are bigger than they were in 2008. Cause in 2008, if you had a diversified portfolio, you took your licks on your equities, but your bonds came through.”
Gave: Energy sector has substantial room to grow due to institutional under-allocation
“And then the other thing, of course, is the outperformance of energy. When I talk to people about it, they're like, oh yeah, I can't do anything about that. Can't invest. Which tells me great news. It's got lots of room to grow.”
Gave: Energy and emerging market bonds are the new anti-fragile portfolio assets
“The new two anti-fragile assets are one energy and the other is emerging market bonds.”
Gave: First Fed tightening cycle where EM bonds outperform US Treasuries
“This is the first Fed tightening cycle in my lifetime where emerging market bonds are crushing U.S. Treasuries, German bonds, JGBs.”
Gave: Asian currencies and EM bonds will revalue against Western debt
“I think the next coming years, we're now entering a cycle of revaluation of Asian currencies, revaluation of emerging market bonds relative to those of the Western world. I think it started, and I think very few people are positioned for it.”
Gave: Selling China to US or European institutions today is impossible
“Trying to sell China to US institution or even a European institution today, forget it. It's not going to happen. You're wasting your time.”
Gave: Current Latin American leftists will not repeat Chávez's mistakes
“Today's leftists in America are not the leftists from a generation ago. Again, you learn from your father's mistakes. In Latin America, you talk to guys in Chile and in Colombia and in Mexico, they've learned from Chavez. They've learned from Argentina. They d…”
The other half of the tape: Louis-Vincent Gave's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode across the shows. every mention, with the transcript →
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Capital Allocators 1
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Louis-Vincent's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL ALLOCATORSLEDGER | Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal | 3 | 72 | 54% 13/24 | full record on Capital Allocators → |