James Aitken
Founder & Managing Partner, Aitken Advisors. On 1 show, 6 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
analystfounderaitkenadvisors.com ↗
James Aitken founded Aitken Advisors in 2009, operating a macroeconomic consultancy that advises institutional investors and sovereign pools of capital. He previously worked at AIG Financial Products and UBS, where he authored the widely followed market analysis memo Notes from a Small Island.
1shows
6appearances
108statements
25resolved
19supported
3contradicted
76%fully supported
21said about them ↓ Everything James Aitken said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Aitken: US administration is directly signaling global capital to leave
“We now have an administration sending a very direct message over and over again to global capital. And I paraphrase, please go away.”
Aitken: The right allocation to Chinese renminbi assets is zero
“I'll just say generally that the right size exposure to renminbi assets is zero, and perhaps that's something we should take up in another conversation ahead of the Taiwanese presidential elections.”
Aitken: Fixed Income ETF Liquidity Creation is Buy-Side Propaganda
“The idea that ETFs were ever a self-liquifying instrument, that is to say that ETFs create liquidity in their underlying reference securities was always just buy-side propaganda. Absolute garbage. And to see dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens Of credit an…”
Germany's Decision to Punish Greece Triggered the Eurozone Systemic Crisis
“The key assumption Underpinning economic and monetary union. In fact, to this day, there's no default risk in peripheral credit of all kinds, whether it be sovereign or bank or whatever. And Ted, the Germans thought, here's an opportunity to teach everyone a l…”
Secular Stagnation Is a Policy Choice, Not an Inevitable Reality
“Secular stagnation is a euphemism for policy failure, meaning that secular stagnation is a choice.”
Aitken: Expect two horrible quarters of global growth, crushing US equities
“The reality is that we're going to have two quarters of global growth that are going to be absolutely horrible. And in that context, the market clearing price of earnings, and therefore the market clearing price of equities in general, in the US in particular,…”
Aitken: Treasury basis trade did not cause the bond reversal
“It is not the treasury basis trade unwinding. The treasury basis trade this week has been fine. The treasury basis trade does not explain what happened.”
Aitken: Rumors of China dumping US Treasuries are incorrect
“Nor, as Louis would attest, does the convenient but incorrect rumor that, oh, China must be bashing treasuries. Just ignore that.”
Aitken: Private sector lacks balance sheet capacity to intermediate Treasuries
“There is not enough private sector balance sheet capacity to intermediate this enormous stock of treasuries. It's a capacity problem.”
Aitken: Private market funds will face redemption pressures and stock declines
“During this transition, however long it is, we'd be more surprised if we didn't start to read more stories about private something being under pressure. More stories about people who didn't read the prospectus and tried to get the money out and they couldn't a…”
Aitken: Fed must be more hawkish than ever to tame inflation
“The pass-through effect this time, if the Fed's going to succeed in bringing inflation down back to target levels, it's going to have to be more persistent and more hawkish, I would argue, than any of us have experienced.”
Aitken: IRA multiplier will drive US capex for years regardless of 2024 election
“And there is no overstating the profound impact of this Inflation Reduction Act. It is just starting to be felt. It seems every marginal dollar of Western capex coming into the United States, because the tax subsidies are so generous, Not to mention all the sk…”
Aitken: Fed will probably hike rates higher than expected in 2023
“So successful has this bailout been so generous That they're probably going to end up taking the Fed funds rate to a level that none of them actually imagined when they started 2023.”
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes?
And my answer is everybody.
Everybody.
You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
Aitken: US industrial capex buildout matches wartime levels
“This is the sort of industrial capex you normally only see in wartime.”
Aitken: Fundamental investors account for only 5-10% of listed turnover
“And yet the facts are that if you and I, Ted, decide we're going to buy some listed asset today, well, we're going to be five to 10% of the turnover. Because the way the world works today is that the flow is dominated by the machines, and that's not a criticis…”
Aitken: Systematic inflows into liquid stocks will unwind violently
“There's more and more money coming in as volatility comes down into the most liquid stocks. But then at some point, that's all going to turn around. We don't know when. But boy, oh boy, that's going to be a lively couple of days when that happens.”
Aitken: Unprofitable companies unable to refinance face a brutal period ahead
“First and foremost, those are the ones that are going to struggle. It's those profitless companies, no matter what their line of business. And then they've been unable to refinance to this point. Boy, oh boy, it's going to be a brutal period ahead.”
Europe is willing to tolerate recession or stagflation to oppose Putin
“If one takes the belligerent pronouncements Of European politicians and policymakers at face value, it seems that in an effort to thwart Mr. Putin, Europe is prepared to tolerate a recession, or at least something that looks awfully like a textbook definition …”
Bank self-sanctioning drives commodity turbulence, not official government rules
“So to me, it's not the official sanctions that are driving the turbulence under the surface of commodity markets in particular. It's the eagerness of private sector financial institutions and banks in particular To self-sanction, lest they inadvertently releas…”
Energy bottlenecks will persist without political cover for hydrocarbon capex
“Unless oil and gas companies are given unambiguous political cover to expand CapEx once more in the naughty stuff, the non-renewables, then I'm afraid it's difficult to imagine a rapid solution To the energy supply bottlenecks that we're all seeing right now, …”
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
Western sanctions will not trigger massive inflows into the Chinese renminbi
“So I don't think there's any immediate Re-appraisal of the REM NIMBY as a global reserve asset, and we start to see colossal flows into it, or should I say accelerated inflows out of dollars and euros into REM NIMBY. I'm not convinced.”
Sanctioned Russian crypto inflows would trigger immediate Western regulatory crackdowns
“And if you wanted to give those running US sanctions or European sanctions an opportunity to crack down on crypto markets, then that would be it. Either encourage or facilitate large inflows into crypto, or coins I should say, from people who might Be on the s…”
The other half of the tape: James Aitken's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 21 times in 12 episodes across the shows. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Ted Seides 21
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
Capital Allocators 21
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2020 20 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
- Sustainable Investing 10: Hiro Mizuno – Changing the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.148)
- Sustainable Investing 9: Reuben Munger – Private Capital Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.147)
- Sustainable Investing 8: Lauren Taylor Wolfe – Activist Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.146)
- Sustainable Investing 7: Tony Davis – Hedge Fund Perspective at Inherent Group (Capital Allocators, EP.145)
- Sustainable Investing 6: Richard Lawrence - ESG Integration at Overlook (Capital Allocators, EP.144)
- Sustainable Investing 5: David Blood - Pioneering a Generation (Capital Allocators, EP.143)
- Sustainable Investing 4: Emanuel Citron – Sourcing Sustainable Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.142)
- Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
- 3 more episodes that year, every mention in 2020 →
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens James's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL ALLOCATORSLEDGER | Founder & Managing Partner, Aitken Advisors | 6 | 108 | 76% 19/25 | full record on Capital Allocators → |