The Calls, every show
Every prediction date on 44 shows that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
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every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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The record (191) every resolved claim →
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Sacks: Federal forces will deploy to Memphis following governor's invitation
“In Memphis, they have been invited by the Republican governor to go in and help, and so they will.”
Sacks predicts Trump administration will support federal preemption of AI laws
“So I think the administration ultimately will support this.”
Sacks: Trial lawyers will use AI psychosis claims to sue tech companies
“And then the trial lawyers are going to love it because it gives them a new basis for suing all these companies.”
Sacks: Lina Khan will not lead the FTC in a second Trump administration
“I don't think that Lena Khan is going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Sacks predicts a de-escalation avoiding an Israeli ground invasion is unlikely
“I personally think that that's still unlikely. And the main reason for that is I think Israel is determined to go in.”
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Sacks: Offshore stablecoin issuers must move onshore within three years
“They will have to come onshore as part of this bill in the next three years.”
Sacks: Law enforcement will use AI co-pilots to detect automated cybercrime
“So there will be new tools that law enforcement will be able to use. And if somebody is creating phishing sites at scale, they're going to be probably pretty easy for, you know, law enforcement AIs to detect. So let's not forget that there'll be co-pilots writ…”
Sacks predicts Garland will drop Trump document prosecution
“I think Merrick Garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they're investigating him for.”
Sacks: West Virginia Senate seat will go Republican when Manchin retires
“When Joe Manchin retires, that seat is going Republican.”
Sacks doubts Congress will pass $2 trillion in spending cuts
“Are we gonna get two trillion in cuts like Elon wants? I would love that. I doubt you're gonna be able to pass that through Congress”
Sacks: AI chat will achieve promptless proactive assistance by GPT-5
“Well, that's where I want to go with it, is I call that promptless, which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team, even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for t…”
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Sacks: VC capital will be deployed much slower over 3-4 years
“Yes, there's a record amount of money venture capital has raised over the last, you know, couple of years, but it's going to be deployed much more slowly and carefully. Over the next, say, three or four years than it was over the previous few years.”
Sacks: Democratic machine will likely back Eric Swalwell for California governor
“So probably the machine gets behind Swalwell. Even though it probably means a train wreck for the state, but we'll see.”
Sacks predicts AI will increase demand for knowledge workers
“As you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business.”
Sacks: 2026 will see a major IPO boom creating trillions in market cap
“I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.”
Sacks: China will not deploy superior sub-2nm chip manufacturing next year
“Well, I don't think that's going to happen. Let's talk about that if it actually happens. I don't think it's going to.”
Sacks: Jimmy Kimmel Live will be canceled next year due to ratings
“I'm pretty sure that his show is not going to be back next year because it's got such low ratings.”
Sacks predicts Mayor London Breed will clash with District Attorney Chesa Boudin
“I predict that London Breed is going to eventually butt heads with Chase Abu Dean. There is no way that he will support this agenda of fixing the city.”
Sacks: Private equity will buy WeWork out of bankruptcy and profit immensely
“I actually think that some private equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune.”
Sachs: Tech giants will comply with EU DSA rather than exit
“Europe is too big a market for Google or any other major tech company to exit. There's just no way. What they're going to do is comply.”
David Sacks: Seed-stage startup mortality rate will reach roughly 80%
“Well, I would say that the mortality rate on seed right now is very high. You know, I think it's probably going to be like, 80%.”
Sacks predicts the Supreme Court will invalidate Texas' SB8 abortion law
“And I think regardless of what you think about abortion, this law will eventually be invalidated by the Supreme Court or a lower court on that ground that they're allowing people to sue without standing.”
Sacks: COVID-19 will be around forever like the cold or flu
“COVID is going to be around forever. It's like the cold or the flu.”
Sacks: Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg will not flip on Donald Trump
“It does look like persecution rather than prosecution, and what they're trying to do is they're going after this guy, Wesselheim, to squeeze him to try and roll over on Trump. Well, good luck with that. That's about as likely To happen as Putin releasing the p…”
Sacks: Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75-100 basis points by June 2026
“And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts. Possibly, 75 to a hundred basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April, thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips overtime and Social Security.”
Sacks: California refinery closures by spring will drive up gas prices
“Regardless, there's two major refineries closing by the spring. Higher gas prices will be the result.”
Sacks: UC system will never bring back SAT or ACT requirements
“And the University of California system has now abandoned the SAT and ACT. So they temporarily got rid of those requirements during the pandemic, but now they've used it as an excuse. They've never wasted a crisis. And now they say they're not bringing back th…”
Sacks: Hyperscaler AI CapEx spend will hold up despite tariffs
“I think it's going to hold up. I mean, look, I just think that this investment in, in CapEx and the data center build outs is so strategic right now. I mean, I think that the hyperscalers, it's only good for their businesses, but I think they see it as so stra…”
Sacks predicts Biden's infrastructure bill will include capital gains tax hike
“I think it could pass because, I think they're planning to do this tax increase as part of the second infrastructure bill. It's not really an infrastructure bill. They're calling it human infrastructure. We've talked about this. Infrastructure is one of the la…”
Sacks: TikTok faces either divestiture or a US shutdown
“I think it is divestiture or shutdown for TikTok.”
Sacks predicts California Governor Gavin Newsom will be recalled
“Look, this is why Newsom is going to get recalled is because crime and education are just fundamental issues.”
Sacks predicts Fox News will not be held liable in Dominion lawsuit
“I think this would be a better world if Fox were liable, but I don't think they're going to be because that's not the legal standard.”
Sacks predicts TikTok will not be destroyed by US-China competition
“I don't think Chamath is right that TikTok is going to be GPC roadkill.”
Sacks: TikTok concerns will be swept under the rug with no restrictions
“I think the sad reality is that the whole TikTok thing is going to get swept under the rug. I think there'll be no restrictions on TikTok.”
Sacks predicts widespread criminal prosecutions for January 6 Capitol rioters
“I think that that there will be prosecutions. I think that the, these people were captured on video. There's a lot of talk on Twitter and everybody is in favor of finding out who they are, applying facial recognition and Bringing charges. So I think there will…”
Sacks: Banks will soon take over San Francisco office towers
“I think office towers in San Francisco are, that is some serious toxic debt, 27% vacancy rates and growing as Lisa's role. I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon because no…”
Sacks: Gavin Newsom will sign California online hate speech bill into law
“I think Newsom's going to have to sign into law because that's what his base wants. And he intends on running for president in a few years”
Sacks: Ukraine is on track to collapse, probably next year
“And what we're on track for is, at some point, Probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse.”
Sacks: Twitter will issue blue checks and affiliation badges to more users
“So more and more people are going to get blue checks, and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations.”
Sacks: Elon Musk is on track to become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon seems to be on track to be not only the world's richest man, but the world's first trillionaire.”
Sacks predicts RFK Jr. will be confirmed for a cabinet post
“I think it might be harder to get Bobby Kennedy confirmed for a major cabinet post with 51, with 53, 54. I think we get there.”
Sacks predicts there will not be a second COVID lockdown
“There's not going to be a second lockdown.”
Sacks: California fast-food wage bill will accelerate automation and cut jobs
“These big chain restaurants are gonna rely even more heavily on automation now, and they're gonna basically employ less of this labor where the price has been artificially raised for that subsector of the economy from 15 to 22 dollars for reasons that no one c…”
Sacks predicts higher inflation in Japan and continued Yen depreciation
“And the result of this is going to be more inflation in Japan. Their currency is going to continue to depreciate.”
Sacks: Bank of Japan will hold interest rates steady amid instability
“The Bank of Japan's basically just capitulated and said that they can't raise interest rates while things are so unstable. So we know they're just gonna going to keep rates where they are.”
Sacks: Crypto market structure bill could pass within six months
“I think we could do a revised and updated version this Congress. And that was one of the things they all, the chairman expressed support for. So I think there's a pretty good chance we could get this done in the next six months.”
Sacks: Congress will pass stablecoin legislation in the next several months
“What the four chairman indicated is actually they're going to take up stable coins first. And then market structure will follow very quickly. So I think we could see a stable coin bill past Congress in the next several months.”
Sacks: House will act on GENIUS Act in the next few weeks
“I would expect the House will act in the next few weeks on this, and then the president will have a bill he can sign.”
Sacks: Next-gen AI models like ChatGPT-5 will hit A-plus quality within a year
“And, you know, in a year or so, we're going to be at the next gen version of all the models. You're going to be at, I'm sure you know, ChatGPT five will be out and then the next version of Claude and so forth. At that point, it's going to be an A plus.”
Sacks: VC funds will extend deployment timelines from one year to three
“The big traditional venture funds will have large funds, but they're going to deploy them much more slowly. These one year pace of deployments, they're going to stop. They'll be back to three.”
Sacks expects French Hill to reintroduce crypto market structure bill within weeks
“So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it.”
Sacks: Agrawal will be ousted immediately if Musk buys Twitter
“If Elon wins this battle, Parag is going to have the shortest executive career since that Pope who got poisoned.”
Sacks predicts elites and media will stop Musk from acquiring Twitter
“Elon is gonna be thwarted by these folks. He's not gonna get control of this company. They're, the vested interest in stopping him by the board, by the new CEO, and by the corporate media and the political elites is too great. They will find a way to stop him.”
Sacks: Adam Schiff's AI copyright disclosure bill won't pass yet
“Not yet, but it's paving the way for something.”
Sacks: Natural-language AI tools will soon let anyone create software without coding
“Even really before forming a company, anyone with a good idea is going to be able to do that soon. You're going to be able to use these AI tools. They truly will be no code. You'll be able to create an app or a website just by speaking to some AI program in a …”
Sacks: Ukraine's military will collapse within one to six months
“I think that Ukraine within, it could be in the next month. It could be the next two months. It could be the next six months. I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable.”
Sacks predicts private startup valuations will fall to pre-COVID levels
“I think that there's going to be a trickle down effect of what's happened in the market to privates. And the valuations are going to go back to their pre-COVID levels.”
David Sacks: Expect a wave of commercial real estate bankruptcies by 2025
“Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Siri bankruptcies in the next 18 months.”
Sacks: 10-year Treasury yield will hover around 4% long-term
“It's not clear that the tenure is going to be going to be going back down to two, three percent where it was during the ZERP period. It probably will be around four percent plus or minus.”
Sacks: Trump cannot end the Ukraine war on day one
“Is he going to be able to do it on day one? No. I mean, I don't think that's realistic, because frankly, the Ukrainians are not willing to make the concessions yet.”
Sacks: Russia-Ukraine war will be a permanent feature of Biden presidency
“I think it's gonna become a sort of permanent feature in the background of Biden's presidency.”
Sacks: US airstrikes won't deter Houthis, will trigger direct US retaliation
“I mean, the Houthis have been at war on and off With the Saudis for a decade, and the Saudis been backed by Western weapons, and we have not been able to defeat the Houthis. So this missile strike last night is not gonna deter them. It's not gonna stop them. T…”
Sacks: Late-stage venture financing crunch will worsen over 18 months
“There's a huge crunch in late-stage financing. It's only gonna get worse over the next 18 months.”
Sachs: Fed will extend or replace Bank Term Funding Program in 2024
“I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think the feds can have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program.”
Sachs predicts energy stocks could be top performers in 2024
“My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks energy prices could be among the top performers of twenty-twenty-four, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating.”
Sacks predicts S&P 493 will outperform the Magnificent Seven in 2024
“I would bet against the magnificent seven just because I believe that what goes up must come down, and the hotter they are, the harder they fall. I'm not saying that the magnificent seven are actually going to go down. I'm just saying that the S&P four 93 Are …”
Sacks: Klaviyo will probably reach $1B ARR in 2024
“Project that forward, they're probably going to be at a billion in ARR next year.”
Sacks: An expanded BRICS will control 90% of globally traded oil
“If BRICS adds Venezuela, Algeria, and Kazakhstan, as they may do as soon as next year, they'll control 90% of all oil and gas traded globally.”
Sacks: US economy may avoid recession and see rate cuts in 2024
“What you're seeing over the last few weeks, it's just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing. That we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.”
Sacks: Startups face major cash crunch and down rounds in 2023–2024
“The crunch is going to happen. Second half of 20 23 and 20 24. That's where you're going to see the down rounds. That's where you're going to see the restructuring, the recaps and all the rest of it.”
Sacks: Tim Cook won't retire until Apple launches AR glasses
“I think he doesn't want to retire until this comes out and he can see this is going to be his signature product, I think.”
Sacks: Trump probably wins the 2024 Republican nomination if he runs
“He's going to have enough arguments where if he wants to run four years from now I think he probably gets the Republican nomination again.”
Sacks: Harris will be forced to do interviews after DNC
“I think that they're going to run this playbook through the convention. But eventually she's going to have to start doing interviews, and she's going to have to start putting out more substantive policy proposals.”
Sacks: Gold Star families will protest Tim Walz at campaign events
“If Walts doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events, and that's gonna be a real headache from now till the election.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris is the only candidate option if Biden exits
“We are gonna get President Kamala Harris. She's the only alternative.”
Sacks: Democrats are more likely than not to keep Biden on ticket
“Whoa. I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should be worse, and I think it's more dangerous for the country, frankly.”
Democrats will not replace Joe Biden following Trump's conviction
“If you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation.”
Sacks: DNC lawyers will fight to keep RFK Jr. off swing state ballots
“I think what you're gonna see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states, like the five or six states. Where the presidency will be decided in 20…”
Sacks predicts Trump will waltz into the White House in 2024
“By the way, I mean, at this rate, the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally, he's gonna waltz into the White House. He's gonna spend all of his time in the next year in, in the courthouses battling all of these l…”
Sacks predicts Fed will delay interest rate cuts for two years
“My guess is that they'll be too slow to react to the recession. So we'll end up with a period of rates being higher than they should too long, and then they will correct. They'll drop rates, but that could be two years from now.”
Sacks: Neither political party would nominate a major bank head for president
“And actually I think neither party could nominate a banker right now. I mean, if you saw what happened around the whole banking crisis, That I think is still going on in slow motion. I mean, the amount of animosity, both towards the banks that went under and t…”
Sacks: Establishment Democrats will flood 2024 primary if Biden drops out
“I think what will happen if Biden drops out is we'll get a flood of establishment Democrat candidates in the race. Newsom, maybe J.B. Pritzker, Harris for sure.”
Sacks: 2024 US presidential election will be DeSantis vs. Newsom
“I think it's going to be DeSantis versus Newsom in 24.”
Sacks: 20 more distressed SF office buildings will trade within a year
“There's already half a dozen of these buildings that have traded in the range that we're talking about, and there'll be about 20 more that are coming to market that'll trade in the next year.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris will be nominee if Biden steps down
“I think that if they succeed in pushing Biden out, which does seem probably more likely than not at this point, I think it's got to be Harris. And I think she's going to be the nominee.”
Sacks: US 10-year Treasury yields will rise to 5%-7%
“Well, the bond rates go up, and so the tenure goes up, like Freeberg was saying, from 4.2 to somewhere in the five to seven percent range.”
Sacks: The MAGA faction will probably win the GOP primary
“I think that what happens in practice is that the factions are trying to feed each other and that one faction is going to win. And I think it's probably going to be the MAGA faction.”
Sacks: Trump likely to win GOP nomination due to prosecution backlash
“And part of the reason why I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash in the GOP where people basically think that he's being unfairly prosecuted and persecuted.”
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