Intuitive Prediction
topic on 1 show · 2 statements across 2 episodes
2 statements about Intuitive Prediction, every show
Kahneman: Intuitive human predictions systematically fail to account for statistical regression
“The best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean.”
Kahneman: Optimal statistical predictions are always less extreme than intuitive impressions
“The best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean, but statistics is statistics, and in statistics, things are less extreme”