Intuitive prediction
2 statements across 2 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Oct 15, 2019 by Daniel Kahneman · across every show →
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Oct 15, 2019
Kahneman: Optimal statistical predictions are always less extreme than intuitive impressions
“The best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean, but statistics is statistics, and in statistics, things are less extreme”