Fermi Method
topic on 1 show · 1 statements across 1 episodes
1 statements about Fermi Method, every show
Tetlock: Superforecasters break intractable problems into exposed subcomponent estimates
“And that's what super forecasters are pretty good at doing. Breaking down seemingly attractable problems into semi-attractable components and then just pushing. They're not afraid of looking stupid and making estimates that observers can see and look at and sa…”