Fermi method
1 statements across 1 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · across every show →
Everything said about Fermi method, oldest first
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: Superforecasters break intractable problems into exposed subcomponent estimates
“And that's what super forecasters are pretty good at doing. Breaking down seemingly attractable problems into semi-attractable components and then just pushing. They're not afraid of looking stupid and making estimates that observers can see and look at and sa…”