The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 127 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Zuckerberg: Meta's 2016 political mistake will take another 10 years to resolve
“I think that the political miscalculation was a 20 year mistake. And so it started in 2016... And I think it's going to take another 10 years or so for us to kind of fully work through that cycle before our brand and all of that is back to kind of the place th…”
Munger claims China's economy has better 20-year prospects than most
“Well, my position in China has been Well, that the Chinese economy has better future prospects over the next 20 years than almost any other big economy.”
Calacanis: California will be damaged for a decade or two
“I think Austin's kind of the future. I think California's gonna be damaged for a decade or two. So I think for the rest of our adult lives, this town.”
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz's long-term returns won't match Benchmark or Sequoia
“I think in the arc, it will not be comparable to benchmark at Sequoia.”
Gilbert: Networks will overpay for NFL rights until economics break
“I continue to think that networks are just on this treadmill where they're just going to keep paying more and more and more for NFL rights until is actually non-economic for them to do so, but then they'll be in so deep that it's pretty hard to recover from th…”
Waymo Can Become a Google-Sized Business if Costs Drop
“You could see a path to a Google-sized opportunity for Waymo as a standalone company just through this analysis, as long as they figure out a way to get costs down to the point where they can run this as a large and profitable business.”
AI Chat Ad Rates Will Be Dramatically Higher Than Search Ads
“So, there should be an ad model that emerges, and ad rates should actually be dramatically higher because you have perfect precision.”
Google's AI Market Share Will Stabilize Between 25% and 50%
“They own 90% of the search market. I don't know what they own of the AI market, but it ain't 90%. Is it 25%? I don't know, but at steady state it probably will be something like 25, maybe up to 50%, but This is going to be a market with several big players in …”
AI Will Capture the Highest-Value Search Query Use Cases
“AI might take away the majority of the use cases of search, and even if it doesn't, I bet it takes away a lot of the highest value ones.”
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Rosenthal: IPL could rival the NFL in size by age 30
“And in theory, by the time it is, call it 30 years old, could be as big as the NFL.”
Gilbert: Only a complete paradigm shift can unseat TSMC
“I think the only thing that will unseat TSMC is a complete paradigm shift.”
TSMC will soon create more value than the entire prior silicon industry
“So it is true that the value that TSMC will create in the world over the next year, two years, three years, is probably more than the entire silicon industry leading up to this point combined.”
Chocolate sales will not decline despite widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs
“Even if everyone starts taking Ozempic, I don't actually think chocolate sales are gonna fall.”
Zuckerberg: Holographic smart glasses will be the ultimate form of AI
“It's going to be, I think, the ultimate Digital social experience, and I think it's also going to be the ultimate incarnation of AI, because you're going to have conversations where it's like, alright, there's some people, it's like maybe like, I'm physically …”
Zuckerberg: Meta brand will take another 10 years to recover
“I think it's going to take another 10 years or so for us to kind of fully work through that cycle before our brand and all of that is back to kind of the place that it maybe could have been if I hadn't messed that up in the first place.”
Zuckerberg: AR and AI smart glasses will become completely ubiquitous
“I'm pretty sure glasses and kind of, like, holographic presence and AR is going to be a completely ubiquitous Product, right? It's just like everyone who had a phone before replaced it with a smartphone, and then a lot of more people got smartphones. If all we…”
Zuckerberg: Apple is Meta's primary competitor in ideological open-vs-closed race
“I expect them to be our primary competitor, and I think it will not be Just a product competition. I think it's like a, in some ways, very deeply values driven and ideological competition around what the future of the tech industry should be”
Zuckerberg: Full-scale AI will arrive before AR holograms
“A few years ago, I would have predicted that AR holograms would have been available before kind of, like, full-scale AI. And now I think it's probably gonna be the other order.”
Zuckerberg: Apple will be Meta's primary rival in ideological platform war
“I think Apple will have a place for sure. I expect them to be our primary competitor, and I think it will not be Just a product competition. I think it's like a, in some ways, very deeply values driven and ideological competition around what the future of the …”
Huang says almost all software will be programmed via machine learning
“Almost every piece of software in the world would eventually be programmed this way.”
Huang: Tech companies will become much larger as they manufacture intelligence
“Don't be surprised if technology companies become much larger in the future, because what you produce is something very different.”
DeMuro: Analog Exotic V12 Cars Will Appreciate Rapidly As EVs Dominate
“As cars start to become more electric, more, sort of, the all-electric cars sort of have a similar shape because of aerodynamics and fuel range Gas-powered, old-school, wedge-shaped, exotic V-twelves are gonna be, like, the cars that continue to go up.”
Nvidia's gross margins will not erode significantly below 65% as shortages subside
“That's gonna go away, but I don't think this very high, you know, 65% plus margin is gonna erode too much.”
The AI market faces an investor crisis of confidence within 18 months
“I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that there's some falter in the next 12 to 18 months where there's a crisis of confidence among investors where at some point something will come out Where we all observe, oh, maybe GPTs aren't as useful as we thought…”
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles will take 10 years to become material in transportation
“My instinct is that you will see small scale continued experiments kind of get bigger over the next five years, but it's going to take a good 10 years for it to be a material part of our network or transportation at large. But that's a guess.”
Gilbert: Future breakthrough defense innovation won't come from Lockheed's Skunk Works
“It's very likely that the Skunk Works mentality ends up solving more problems for our country, but probably not from the Skunk Works division of Lockheed Martin.”
Ek: AI will drastically lower the software barriers to music composition
“From there on to actually compose something, getting into the ID of the workflows, the plugins, all that kind of concepts, it's quite a lot to master. And I think that's the potential power with something like AI, obviously.”
Daniel Ek: Generative AI will wipe out the creative middle tier
“So my view is you're going to see both extremes. You're going to see the middle getting wiped out. More people participate, but the very, very top is probably going to increase in value as well.”
Lasky: Nintendo is about to meaningfully expand its app store business
“I think the next one to go is going to be Nintendo, right? I think they're, I think that's, if you're looking for a reason to invest in Nintendo as a company, it's, I think they're about to crack that nut, right? And enter the app store business in a meaningfu…”
Lasky: AI will not easily generate complete, satisfying video games from prompts
“There's a train of thought that, that has been advanced that, oh wow, this is really going to democratize the game industry in, in a way where now, kind of like you're seeing with mid journey, for example, where you can just describe a piece of art and it magi…”
Robbins: UGC platforms like Roblox will capture the most value from AI assets
“Maybe like a working theory that I have is the UGC platforms like the Fortnite creatives or the core or the Roblox's of the world might actually be the ones that accrue the most value in this AI asset generation time where, you know, if you can spin up these t…”
Qualcomm's Best Days Are Behind It If It Remains Only Handsets
“I think if they continue to try to run the same playbook in just the handset market that they have been, the best days are behind them because people have caught onto their games a little bit and are gonna, gonna squeeze them from a bunch of different directio…”
Fenton: Benchmark probably won't be around in 30 years
“Benchmark probably isn't going to be around in 30 years.”
College athletics will go fully professional without congressional intervention
“To me, the model is in a place where if Congress doesn't step in and find some sort of way to stabilize this, the whole thing will probably just go professional”
Professionalized college sports will force schools to eliminate non-revenue sports
“In that world, the way most schools would react, I suspect, is they would cut every single sport that doesn't make money, except for the ones they would have to keep for Title IX purposes, and so these athletic departments would shrink dramatically.”
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them.
No doubt about it.”
Gilbert: Internet barbell dynamics will squeeze the middle in every industry
“I don't think this is unique to media. I think media was the first to experience this sort of squishing in the middle, but it's gonna happen to everything.”
Boyle: Every venture capital firm will have an American Dynamism practice
“I think if we do our jobs right and we invest in the companies that we're intending to invest in and we tell the story, right? I think every venture capital firm will have an American dynamism practice.”
Gerstner (in 2022): Snowflake can reach a $500B valuation by 2029
“I think this company can be worth over five hundred billion dollars over the course of the next five to seven years.”
Gerstner: Competition in venture capital will compress average returns while concentrating elite gains
“Like, what do I expect that, you know, will happen over the full arc of time in venture, right? We're going to compete away returns. We've already witnessed it over the course of the last couple years, right? But that just means the returns that go to the prem…”
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”
Shamrock Capital Will Never Recoup Its $300M Taylor Swift Masters Investment
“I think Shamrock and the Disney family are gonna be left holding the bag on this investment that they'll never recoup”
Bathgate: A TSMC fab shutdown sets Western tech progress back five years
“If for some reason, you know, China moved to seize Taiwan or however, you know, it went into play and all of a sudden TSMC's fabs were shut down, then you really, the Western world would be, you know, set back at least five years, if not 10, just in terms of l…”
Rosenthal: A Champion-Level Female Formula 1 Driver Will Emerge in Coming Years
“I think there's a related bull case of a champion or champion level female driver emerging in the coming years. It feels like that's. Gonna happen. Has to happen. Should happen.”
Rosenthal: Trader Joe's will eventually be worth at least 10x its current valuation
“In the fullness of time, I bet Trader Joe's will be worth at least TEDx that.”