The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 127 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Probability of a third-party UI replacing Epic's backend is near zero
“The fear is that someone deploys to like a 70% of your customer base. They're all using some Chrome extension. They're all feeding the data into some nice UI. That nice UI is the thing everyone prefers to use. And then that UI vendors like, oh, instead of usin…”
Rosenthal: IPL will add at least two more expansion teams
“At least two more teams are gonna get added in the next x period of time here.”
Rosenthal: A 'Drive to Survive' style IPL docuseries would crush globally
“But I think if you were to, and I'm sure people are in development on this, if you were to produce a drive to survive, full league narrative, full production value, Netflix, ongoing annual season special about the IPL, it would crush globally, like absolutely …”
Rosenthal: IPL franchise demand will outstrip supply due to India's billionaire count
“There are a lot of billionaires in India, so there are a lot of potential buyers of sports franchises in India. And there are only 10 viable major sports franchises, the 10 IPL teams, and let's say they expand to 12 or 14 or 16, you know, whatever. There's gon…”
Gilbert: TSMC will ramp its 2nm process in the second half of 2025
“I think they're actually doing the small production runs, getting ready to ramp in the second half of this year on the two nanometer process.”
Rosenthal: TSMC will likely be sole manufacturer at 3nm node
“So, very likely in the next process, it's just going to be TSMC.”
Gilbert: Cloud computing represents a 30- to 40-year secular growth wave
“It's probably a 3040 year wave that they get to keep riding.”
Gilbert: Visa will not capture high-ticket real estate or auto purchases
“This is a bear case on Visa is, are they ever going to participate in real estate or cars or, no, not at these interchange rates. Why would anyone Ever buckle to pay these sorts of things for things that cost a thousand dollars or more.”
Huang: Someday every car will be software-defined
“And I said, I don't think anybody can tolerate that, but it doesn't change the fact that someday every car will be a software defined car.”
Predominant enterprise AI GPU compute consumption will occur via the cloud
“It looks like the predominant way that companies are going to use that compute is gonna be in the cloud.”
Costco operates at an 11% gross margin and will never expand it
“Even though Costco is only an 11% gross margin business, and only ever will be an 11% gross margin business, it's still a pretty amazing business to own.”
Doug DeMuro Predicts a $2 Million All-Electric Porsche Supercar Soon
“I suspect, in the next couple years, they will come out with a, the next supercar, which will be, you know, look like this, and they'll only make a thousand, and it'll cost two million dollars, and it will be fully electric in two zero to 60 in one and a half …”
Automotive Switching Costs Will Rise as In-Car Software Grows
“Less than, that is, that's gonna become less true, I suspect, with all the tech that's in cars, but yeah, I agree. Up until this point, it certainly hasn't been a thing.”
Porsche Will Weather Downturns Better Than BMW but Worse Than Ferrari
“Like, I think they'll fare better than Mercedes and BMW in a downturn, and, like, way worse than Ferrari.”
Ek: Global audiobook listenership will expand to hundreds of millions
“Our view is we eventually think audiobooks should be much, much larger than what it is today. Hundreds of millions of people who are actually listening to audiobooks because the content is great, rather than today what's tens of millions of people.”
Ek: AI-generated audio will become indistinguishable from real recordings
“It's totally possible for us to make an entire episode where We're saying totally different things than what we're saying now, and it, at some point in the future, might be virtually indistinguishable from the real thing.”
Lasky: Nintendo will reveal its next-decade console strategy within 90 days
“I think we will learn a lot about what their strategy is gonna look like for the next decade in the next, like, 90 days.”
Calacanis: SEC accreditation rules will soon allow test- or course-based qualification
“I believe that we're going to have a test For accreditation. And you'll be able to be sophisticated if you take a course. So I think that's coming in the coming years.”
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress will likely pass fiat-backed stablecoin legislation
“What I think you'll probably see is some sort of law that enshrines a quote payment stable coin. That language has been used in a couple of different bills. A payment stable coin as essentially a fiat backed stable coin.”
Decarbonizing the global economy is likely a 50-year thematic tailwind
“There's certainly interesting tailwinds on the climate movement. And how do we decarbonize the economy and do it in a way that's responsible, not just for our people, but for the entire world. It's probably the biggest theme, frankly, that, you know, I think i…”
Boyle: Founders will build American Dynamism companies to solve local civic problems
“And so I'm incredibly bullish that American dynamism Will not only be companies that are built around the country, but it will also be just different types of problems because founders who wouldn't have gone to San Francisco are now building for their hometown…”
Weber: Brooks targets 60M unique customers and $4B revenue in 10 years
“So we see an opportunity for sixty million customers, Sixty million uniques up from maybe fifteen million today, four bagger, and four billion in revenue.”
Gabriele: Snowflake stock will perform extremely well over next three years
“I think over a three plus year time horizon, it can do extremely well. It is a play that summarizes the growth of data in the technology industry, which feels like a safe bet.”
Rosenthal: The enterprise metaverse will run mostly without human presence
“This is what an enterprise metaverse is going to be. This is not designed for humans. Humans may interact with this There will be UI. You'll be able to be part of it. The purpose of this is for simulating Applications. And most of it, I think, is going to run …”
Gerstner predicts tech ideas over next decade will dwarf past 10 years
“I think when we look back at this system in 10 years, it's gonna be more vibrant, more capital, more access, more ideas, and I think the secular curve around creative destruction and innovation has never been steeper, and the ideas over the course of the next …”
Sony will continue to outpace competitors in mobile image sensors
“I think they're going to continue to have unbelievable gains above anyone else in the mobile imaging space. And I think that's going to only get more and more important.”
McCormick: A tech bear market will lead to attacks on my optimism
“I think when the market turns and when we enter a bit of a bear market and in tech and web three, like it will be really easy to throw stones at me. Like I am unabashedly optimistic about all of this and like things are going to turn on. I'm going to like, you…”
McCormick: Not Boring can reach 1M subscribers within five years
“There's a path to this being a million person newsletter at some point in the next five years.”
Mauboussin: Replicating Bill Miller's 15-Year S&P Outperformance Will Be Extremely Difficult
“Bill Miller beat the S and P 500 for 15 years in a row. I think that's going to be very difficult for anyone to do again for the same reasons we talked about.”