The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 127 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rosenthal: Tesla Will Have to Shift to TSMC for 3nm Chips
“They're gonna have to go to TSMC, though, in the next generation, because you want three nanometer.”
Zuckerberg: Full-scale AI will arrive before AR holograms
“A few years ago, I would have predicted that AR holograms would have been available before kind of, like, full-scale AI. And now I think it's probably going to be the other order.”
Zuckerberg: Threads could reach one billion users within a few years
“Hopefully in the next few years, five with threads, if that continues scaling.”
Zuckerberg: Threads could reach one billion users in a few years
“Hopefully in the next few years, five with threads, if that continues scaling”
Massive GLP-1 demand will enable multiple pharma hits like insulin
“I think this is going to be like insulin all over again, where there's just going to be a series of product improvements and companies will drive innovation and increase supply. I mean, the demand is so huge out there that Monroe can be a huge hit. Ozempic and…”
GLP-1s could surpass Humira and remain defensible for a decade
“So I think, assuming that Novo stays sort of neck and neck with Eli Lilly as they both keep coming out with better and better versions, that this could be the next Humira, or potentially much bigger than Humira. And I think the defensibility is an open questio…”
Gilbert: Lab-grown diamonds will plunge in cost while mined diamonds hold value
“We are only going to get better Moore's Law style at creating lab-grown diamonds, and so they will asymptotically approach zero. Maybe not zero, but some number. Every year, presumably, they should get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, whereas for something whe…”
Card payment networks will persist absent new technology or government intervention
“Without a new paradigm emerging, this is the system.
I'd say a new paradigm or the government intervention, this kind of is the system that we've made our bed and we're stuck with.”
Nvidia will eventually operate its own complete data center buildings
“They used to have to plug into other people's servers, and then they started making servers that plugged into other people's racks and rows and architectures, and then they started making their own entire rows and walls, and at some point here, they're gonna s…”
A cloud provider's traditional market share will dictate their AI era dominance
“I bet the way it plays out is that where you landed in cloud one point O strongly dictates where you will land in this AI cloud era.”
A large portion of machine learning inference will move to edge devices
“I suspect a lot of inference will get done on the edge. If you think about the insane amount of compute that's walking around in our pockets that is not fully leveraged right now, there's gonna be a lot of machine learning done on phones that are gonna, like, …”
Jordan Will Earn $5B to $10B Lifetime From the Jordan Brand
“Michael Jordan will make five, maybe ten billion dollars over his lifetime from the Jordan brand.”
The Next Generation of Supercars Will Likely Be Fully Electric
“The next crop of supercars will probably be full electric, and so that transition, I think, is going to be more controversial.”
Porsche Will Eventually Make All Models Purely Electric
“It's, the future is electric. There will be electric versions of all these cars, and probably within our not so distant lifetimes, they will be purely electric.”
Ek: Spotify's AI DJ feature will eventually outdo Discover Weekly
“Yes. And I think it'll even outdo Discover Weekly.”
Lasky: Sony's resistance to cross-play will hurt it over time
“I think it's going to come back to bite him in the ass over time.”
Gilbert: Having capital and writing checks will differentiate VCs within 6-12 months
“A year from now, it's like six to 12 months from now, that's gonna be differentiating.”
Thompson: EUV lithography has only 5 to 6 years left
“EUV has another five, six years, and then it's not super clear what's after that.”
Qualcomm Is Developing a Direct Competitor to Apple's M-Series Chips
“They already make Snapdragons for the high-end Android phones, and soon they'll be able to make a competitor to Apple's M series chips for laptops and desktops and maybe even servers.”
Gilbert: Adobe will not ruin or kill Figma post-acquisition
“And all these people that are like, oh, they're gonna ruin it. They're gonna kill Figma. No, they're not. That's why they paid twenty billion dollars for it and have a gigantic bonus for Dylan to stay on board.”
Miller: a16z and Sequoia will launch retail-accessible funds within five years
“And I'm gonna bet you that within five years, the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, also launch funds just like this.”
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress is close to legislating on stablecoins
“We're getting to a point as a Congress, which is really nice, where I feel like we're getting close to finally legislating on it, specifically around stable coins. We'll see if we get there, but I think that's sort of the first bite of the apple coming off the…”
Rep. Gonzalez predicts a heavy-handed SEC approach to cryptocurrency regulation
“I suspect that's how Congress will behave. I do fear that the administration will take a more heavy-handed path, mainly because the SEC chair is Pretty hostile at times in its public comments on crypto.”
Gilbert: Walmart should win same-day grocery delivery via Supercenters
“In my bull case, there's, they kind of should win same-day grocery delivery since they have these super centers everywhere.”
Rosenthal: Amazon will soon pass Walmart in total revenue
“The only larger one being Walmart, which Amazon will almost assuredly pass very soon.”
Gilbert: NVIDIA Will Likely Shift Away From Board Partners to Direct Sales
“So I suspect that shifts more over time. I can't imagine a company that wants as much control as NVIDIA does loves the ad and board partner thing, but they've built a business on it, and so they're not really willing to cannibalize and alienate. But I bet if t…”
Gilbert: Enterprises will model everything in Omniverse before real-world rollout
“Because I think now that we have the compute, the ability to gather the data, and the ability to actually, you know, run these simulations in a way that has a efficient way of running it and a good user interface to understand the data, people are going to sto…”
Microsoft will never completely take Sony's gaming market share
“I don't think Microsoft is going to like completely take the market from them now or possibly ever.”
The shift to game subscriptions will erode console platform moats
“If the industry moves much more to subscription dynamics, I do think a lot of this power goes away. Switching costs become a lot lower. Network economies become a lot less powerful.”
Gordon-Levitt: Mandating exponential economic growth on a finite planet guarantees catastrophe
“And when you've got a system that mandates exponential economic growth, but you've got a finite planet, it's by definition unsustainable. So we're definitely heading for a catastrophe unless we change the way the system works and no longer require it to be gro…”
Eich: US will not ban crypto due to wealthy family office adoption
“Crypto gets banned in the US or something like that. Don't think it's going to happen. One of the reasons is because I do see too many rich people partaking through their family offices and so on.”
Ben Gilbert predicted in 2022 that Peloton would be acquired soon
“I think two years from now, I think the most likely thing is that it's acquired by someone”
McCormick predicts Not Boring will cross $1M in revenue in 2021
“And I have a few pieces kind of coming up, and so I think chances are we're going to just kind of cross a million dollars in 2021.”
McCormick: 80% of DAOs will fail, but the top 20% outperform corporations
“I think Eight out of 10 DAOs might totally fail because they have like kind of that leadership issue or like who is the final decision maker issue. But I think those other two are going to do things that like you might not have ever thought to do with a tradit…”
Bathgate: Moore's Law will continue spiritually for 10 to 15 years
“I think just like for the spirit of Moore's law, we still have, we have visibility probably for the next. 10 to 15 years.”
Mark Canlis predicted COVID disruption would last months, aiming for break-even
“The goal was like, it'd be amazing if for the next three months, Canlis could not lose money. I think that'll posture us really well coming out of this thing on the other side, and I do think of it as a few months, not just a few weeks.”
Gilbert: Disney will set an all-time net income record in 2026
“But I think in 20, 26, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.”
Rosenthal: Disney operates in 20-year cycles and could peak in a decade
“It goes in 20 year cycles, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's back on top of the world in another 10 years.”
ETF assets will surpass traditional mutual funds within a few years
“So if that keeps up at some point here in the next small set of years, ETF assets will pass traditional mutual funds to become the largest equity asset class in the world.”
Formula 1 Will Never Remove the Monaco Grand Prix From Its Calendar
“But there's also no chance that they would ever get rid of Monaco.”
Gilbert: Formula 1 Will Not Replicate Its $500M Owner-Operated Las Vegas Race Model
“I don't think they will pursue this model elsewhere. If I'm reading the tea leaves right now, these things take a long time to pay back. And I think they've sunk over half a billion dollars into building this out.”
Rosenthal: Ford and Red Bull Will Score a Podium in Their First Season
“Whereas Ford is coming in with Red Bull, one of the top teams, like they're going to be on the podium from season one.”
Gilbert: NFL will easily beat $25B annual revenue target by 2027
“The league now does over twenty three billion dollars per year across all teams. That's on track to surpass twenty five billion, which was their goal by 2027, they're going to easily beat this number.”
Gilbert: NFL will soon produce international stars through flag football
“It's only a short number of years before we see a meaningful presence of NFL stars who are not from America, because they sort of grew up playing flag, and then when they hit 1314, 15, started playing tackle football”
Gilbert: NIL money will improve NFL rookie classes as players develop longer in college
“Because now that players can make money in college, there's not as much of an incentive to get thrust into the NFL before they're ready. They can sort of develop longer mentally and physically before coming to the NFL, so we may have sort of better rookie clas…”
Gilbert: Profit disparity will test NFL's league-first mentality
“This league first mentality is going to be really tested in the coming years with these enormously profitable teams at the top, and these teams at the bottom”
Michael Lewis: Acquired will eventually evolve into doing standalone biographies
“At some point you're gonna wake up and say, you know, we should be doing more biography. We should be doing more people, and if that person is not, you know, is not naturally a huge corporation, you may still, I have a feeling there's more, there's an evolutio…”