The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 228 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Dolgov: Waymo will continue using LiDAR, radar, and cameras together
“So yeah, I think the trend, you know, for us that we'll, you know, using all three modalities just, you know, makes a lot of sense.”
Hearn: Reaching Bitcoin capacity limits will kick users out of the system
“At worst, things break quite badly, but even at best, even if things don't break, some users won't be able to use Bitcoin, right? They will be kicked out of the system, effectively. There won't be enough capacity to handle them.”
Ludwig: Commercial driverless trucks are at most a few years away
“To be honest, it's not long. We're talking a few years and I think on the long end,”
Rowan: Apollo investment grade private products will offer daily pricing by June
“And so, we're starting with our investment grade private suite of products, and we will be daily estimated value by June 30.”
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Blania: Social platforms will fail attempting phone face biometrics for human verification
“My guess is over the next couple months, we will see things like these platforms trying to use things like face biometrics on the phone, which, you know, I know it will break, so it's fine, but I think we'll go through that cycle now.”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Yahya: Federal stablecoin regulation will likely pass in 2025
“We strongly believe it likely, it'll likely happen this year.”
Dixon: People will make AI-generated feature films within two years
“In two years, you'll have people making feature-length films.”
Plaid CEO: CFPB's open banking rules will face widespread lawsuits
“I'm certain it's gonna be sued by, like, I don't know, a gajillion different companies. I know the banks, the big banks want to sue it, the small banks want to sue it, like a bunch of fintechs want to, it's all, all, all over.”
China is actively investing in and will deploy autonomous weapons
“We know that China is, you know, investing in similar technologies. We know they're going to move out on it,”
Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents
“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be eno…”
Gallagher: TikTok will not go public in US under ByteDance ownership
“If you are invested in ByteDance, I would assume you want TikTok to go public in America. Ah, that's not gonna happen under the current ownership structure.”
Andreessen: AI detection software in schools will fail and falsely accuse students
“There are various attempts by companies to do like AI detectors now. You know, was this text written by AI and schools are actually starting to use that. And I think we can definitively, that will not work. Yeah. So what we can tell, there's already been cases…”
Andreessen: AI will allow actors to scan themselves into 3D environments
“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow every screenplay to be rendered as video
“Most, look, oh, look, most people who write a Hollywood screenplay never see it produced. They never see it on screen. Right. And now all of a sudden, like all of those screenplays could be produced. Right. And turned into, you know, maybe not a movie that's c…”
Anthropic plans to formalize a safe scaling framework with capability checkpoints
“One broad way that we've been thinking about it from the beginning and are probably going to work more on formalizing it over the coming months and years is this idea of sort of safe scaling or checkpointing. So there could be this kind of alternating step whe…”
Andreessen: Screenwriters will use AI to render full movies within years
“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”
Diamandis: XPRIZE competition aims to reverse human biological age by 20 years
“My biggest area right now is reinventing, disrupting healthcare a health span XPRIZE reverse your biological age or your functional age by 20 years, right?”
Bovell: AI will depress wages in modeling and programming
“We're going to see this across the board with AI. It's going to put downward pressure on a lot of different wages from modeling to programming, but that's where it becomes a little bit challenging.”
Hefets: Housing downturn will not be as extreme as 2008 crisis
“So I don't think that we're going to see something as extreme as the, that last housing crisis.”
Andreessen: Patients presenting GPT query results will force doctors to adopt AI
“And by the way, patients using GPT, if it hasn't started, it's going to start imminently. So, so, so, so the patients are going to show up with the results of GPT queries, and the doctors are going to have to respond to that, and so they're going to end up bei…”
Fielding: Privateer plans to offer space tracking tools for free
“We aim to democratize the space situational awareness market. By bringing these tools to humankind for free, by enabling and empowering the community so that we have a single source of truth and knowledge, and we're not aiming to own it.”
Gluchowski: ZK-rollups will maintain a 50x cost reduction ratio over Ethereum mainnet
“So right now the rollups we have for ZK rollups we have for payments are about 50 times cheaper than native payments on layer one. And I expect that this ratio to remain roughly the same for also for smart contracts.”
Chou: Rally will operate as a network, not an IPO-bound company
“I'm not trying to be a company. We're trying to really create a network where other businesses can build a business and not worry about rally being a traditional company that's trying to you know, earn revenues and do an IPO at some point and eventually potent…”
Dixon: Cable TV bundle economics will collapse in the near future
“And the economics too, like the, you know, like the cable bundle is going to break at some point, I think soon, right? But at some point, like the economics will, like fundamentally, like it will no longer work to have the cable bundle. I think that's, Relativ…”
Dixon: VCs will not fund third-party tools for closed platforms
“You will not see any VC. We have not funded. No one will fund an anti-spam solution for Twitter or Facebook.”
Pathak: Synapse will not seek to acquire its own banking charter
“We're most likely not going to go and get a charter.”
Dixon: NFTs and digital goods will regain mainstream popularity
“I think another interesting area is it's fall, it's kind of out of fashion at the moment, but I think we'll come back is NFTs or you know, digital goods.”
Yahya: Decentralized storage will not drastically cut costs for most uses
“So the reason that we need decentralized storage networks is not because they're going to reduce the price of storage by orders of magnitude. At least for most kinds of files and for most use cases, I don't believe that that'll be the case.”
Tyson: Kaiser will perform hospital admissions at home within 5-10 years
“We believe strongly that within the next five to 10 years there's a certain percentage of our admissions into the hospital we're going to be doing in the homes.”
Whitman: Quibi will be a mobile-first, mobile-only short-form video platform
“What we are trying to do is create a platform where we offer short form, and I'm going to describe that in a minute, short form video of Hollywood production quality built for mobile. And mobile first, mobile only, honestly.”
Wilson: Cloud market will split to Amazon 60%, Google 30%, Microsoft 10%
“But I think it could be like Amazon has 60% of the market, Google has 30% of the market, and Microsoft has 10% of the market. I think it's gonna be a three player game in that business, and that's good.”
Benet: High-throughput blockchain scaling implementations will be live within two years
“So expect that to happen over the next year or two. Already there's a bunch of academic results that show this is not only possible, but it's provably so. So now people are building those Implementations, and we'll see them live in the next two years or so.”
Nasdaq proposes allowing stock issuers to opt out of National Market System
“One of the things that we are preparing, and we've wrote in our blueprint, is to create, give an issuer a choice. They should be allowed to choose which market structure they want to embrace, so they can choose to be in the national market system, or they coul…”
Andreessen: Software developers will earn higher salaries due to AI productivity
“If anything, actually, what's gonna happen is the programmers are gonna get, the programmers are gonna be higher paid because they're gonna be higher productivity.”
Rampell: Repatriated corporate cash will fund buybacks, not innovation
“Exactly. It's probably going to go to buybacks M&A and dividends. And a lot of that is just kind of like reshuffling as opposed to actually building anything new.”
Valeti: Cell-cultured meat products will reach the market within five years
“Our goal is it's very realistic to have products on the market in the next five years.”
Andreessen: Cloud AI Supercomputing Access Will Cost $1 Within a Year
“You get what I think in a year is going to be very common. These sort of AI supercomputing chips with the AI algorithms in the cloud available to anybody for a dollar. Right, and so there's going to be this massive deflation of hardware cost on, on that side.”
Evans: Apple and Facebook will build full-stack VR while Google commoditizes hardware
“You'll have Apple and Facebook trying to do the full stack, and you'll have Google saying, well, we're going to provide the hard bit, and everything else will be a commodity around it.”
Levchin: Affirm does not charge late fees to consumers
“And if you're late, we're not going to charge you a late fee because that's our fault. We didn't remind you correctly. And when we made the underwriting decision, we made the choice to take you on as a risk and that that's, we're going to have to stick with.”
Chen: Insurance sales will move to Amazon, Costco, and Facebook Messenger
“Why aren't I buying more insurance products at Costco or Amazon or through Facebook Messenger? And so, like, that will come.”
Brandt: The human enhancement industry will produce multiple billion-dollar companies
“This is the tip of an iceberg for something really big, and that we're seeing a larger trend around human enhancement, that there's going to be multiple billion dollar companies in the space, that there's going to be real really interesting stuff, really novel…”