The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18,204 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Epoch AI: 20-30% chance AI causes sudden 5% unemployment spike
“The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance something like this will happen in the next decade is like, you know, a five percent increase in unemployment over, over a very short period of time, like six months, due to AI.”
Epoch AI: Energy availability will not bottleneck AI scaling
“At the end of the day, though, it's just like, does not, there seem to be enough solutions, especially if you are as willing to pay as you, as people are in AI, that I don't really expect it to be a significant bottleneck.”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Rampell: Prediction markets gather information more efficiently than the CIA
“And this is a much more efficient truth machine than, like, the central intelligence agency, if you think about it.”
Horowitz: Refusing to Sell Technology to the US Military Is Illogical
“I'll just say about the kind of anti, you know, we're not gonna sell stuff to the US military and so forth. It's like, well, so here are friends of ours who are risking their lives to protect us, and we're not going to make sure they have the best, safest equi…”
Only Three Tech Employees Attended an Obama Border Official's Talk
“He went out and actually got a former director, ah, actually, he got, ah, a guy who had actually been in the Obama administration, as basically the head of border, the head of the border security in the Obama administration, to basically come in and give an ho…”
Boyle: Few Lessons From the Ukraine War Will Apply to Future Conflicts
“I actually think there's very few lessons from Ukraine that are going to be relevant in the future war, candidly.”
Shear: Unilateral steering of sentient AI is slavery
“Someone who you steer, who doesn't get to steer you back, who non-optionally receives your steering, that's called a slave. It's also called a tool if it's not a being. So if it's a machine, it's a tool. And if it's a being, it's a slave.”
Shear: AI designed strictly to follow top-down rules will be dangerous
“If you make an AI that's good at following your chain of command and good at following your whatever rules you came up with for what morality is and what good behavior is, That's also gonna be very dangerous.”
Shear: Treating ChatGPT and Claude as beings yields lower predictive loss
“I get lower predictive loss when I treat them as a being. And the thing is, I get lower predictive loss when I treat ChatGPT or Claude as a being.”
Shear: Any true AGI will inherently be a sentient being
“And we are clearly, they're saying they're building an AGI, and AGI will be a being. You can't be an AGI and not be a being, because something that has the general ability to effectively use judgment, think for itself, discern between possibilities is obviousl…”
Shear: AI labs must abandon control paradigms when building AGI
“As you go from what we have today, which is mostly a very specific intelligence, not a general intelligence, but as labs succeed at their goal of building this general intelligence, We really need to stop using the steering control paradigm.”
Emmett Shear: Superhuman AI controlled by steerability will cause human extinction
“If we build the superhuman intelligence tool thing that we try to control with steerability, everyone will die.”
Hershberg: Restricting US-China biotech transactions via BIOSECURE Act is net negative
“I do think that there's some nuance in terms of how we think about regulation for this, right? It's probably not biosecure where you are totally trying to restrict Relationships and transactions between the U S and China, because that's just sort of net negati…”
Truell: Microsoft will struggle to compete in AI code editing
“I think it's one of the things that makes it pretty tricky for a Microsoft to really compete in a big way.”
Adam D'Angelo: Current LLM architectures are not hitting performance limits
“I don't think so. I mean, I think there are certain things like memory and learning, like continuous learning that are not very easy with the current architectures. I think even those you can sort of fake and maybe are, we're going to be able to get them to wo…”
Amjad Masad: Papers predicting AGI by 2027 are vibe-based hype, not science
“So my criticism of the idea of like AGI, 20, 27, you know, that paper that I think it's called Alexander or someone else wrote and then and the situational awareness and all this hype papers that are not really science. They're just vibe.”
Amjad Masad: Current large language models are not on the path to AGI
“I don't think LLMs as they can understand are on, on the way to AGI and my definition for AGI is I think the old school RL definition, which is a machine that can go into any environment and learn efficiently in the same way that a human could go into you can …”
Adam D'Angelo: Current AI paradigm is far from diminishing returns
“I think the current paradigm is pretty good. And I think we're nowhere near the sort of like diminishing returns of continuing to push on it. And I bet. Yeah, I guess I would just bet that you can keep doing different innovations within the paradigm to get the…”
Zuckerberg: AI will help cure all diseases significantly before 2100
“When we started the mission to see if we could help the scientific community cure and prevent diseases by the end of the century. I do think with the advances in AI, that should be possible to do significantly sooner.”
Kuyda: AI builders wrongly view voice as the main interface
“There's a huge mind trap that exists among builders in the space where they somehow think that voice is the main interface.”
Kuyda: Leading AI builders are technical savants who lack empathy
“Today what I'm seeing with AI, especially it's being built by a very specific type of Person personality. It's oftentimes these savants, these like brilliant geniuses physicists, mathematicians, and they're insane in building algorithms and math and kind of sc…”
Kuyda: Building screenless AI hardware is a major mistake
“There's a lot of people trying to build voice only devices. In my case, completely wrong. Like it can be a fantastic extra way to interact with the computer, but every single Alexa right now is, like, 75% of them are being shipped with the screen. Because even…”
Sacks: Regulatory ambiguity was a deliberate ploy to push crypto offshore
“And you know, it was very unfair because again, these founders wanted to comply with the rules, but they weren't told what they were. And that was all part of a deliberate strategy, I think, to drive crypto offshore.”
Sacks: US will lose AI race to China under pre-approval regulations
“And I think we will lose the AI race to countries like China if, You know, if this is the set of rules that we have.”
Horowitz: Founder claims of imminent AGI are just talent recruiting tactics
“I think all those claims tend to be like recruiting ideas as opposed to actual predictions.”
Sacks: AI doomerism narrative will be discredited within a few years
“I suspect that's where we'll be with AI dumerism in a few years, but in the meantime, it's a really good narrative to kind of take the place of the climate dumerism.”
Sacks: Top Biden AI officials immediately joined Anthropic after leaving government
“Literally the minute the Biden administration was over, all the top Biden AI employees went to go work at Anthropic, which tells you who they were working with during the Biden years.”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”
Baker: Artificial intelligence is not currently in a financial bubble
“I do not believe we're in an AI bubble today.”
Baker: Unlike 2000 dark fiber, no dark GPUs exist today
“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”
Baker: Larry Page said he would risk bankruptcy to win AI race
“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”
Baker: Software companies cannot succeed in AI without margin pressure
“It is definitionally impossible, given what we just discussed, to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure, and I do not know why they have concerns, because we have an existence proof that a software company can deal well with declining margins in Microsof…”
Baker: Chinese open-source AI helps US firms catch leading frontier labs
“In a strange way, the Chinese open source model ecosystem is a godsend to any American company that's trying to catch those four leading labs.”
Baker: GPT-V is not evidence that AI scaling laws are ending
“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”
Baker: Debate between humanoid and non-humanoid robots is over
“Is it going to be humanoids or not humanoids? I think that debate is over because humanoids can kind of learn, you know, from watching YouTube videos, and then it's easier for a human being you know, to put on a suit and show the robot how to do it.”
Patel: Relying solely on Broadcom silicon creates a predatory monopoly
“Is, if you're just a rapper around Broadcom, Then you've got a monopoly that's gonna be a very predatory one. And so, one of the big reasons where Cisco is super relevant is you don't just have a Broadcom world with people just wrapping Broadcom, that their sy…”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Andreessen: Tech inventors have no superior moral claim on their creations' consequences
“If you read the history of those people at that time, specifically people like Oppenheimer, you realize, yeah, the people who invent the technology have no special moral claim. They have no special predictive power for the consequences of the technology, and t…”
Masad: Bearish on true AGI breakthroughs due to current AI profitability
“I, I'm kind of bearish on, on, on true AGI breakthrough because what we built is so useful and economically valuable.”
Rose: AI relationship mediators will be considered healthy within 10 years
“10 years from now, will that tech be good enough to where we'll consider that to be not like just like a healthy thing for our relationship? I think so.”
Acharya: Schools will use AI vision models for social-emotional learning
“The way we're going to get there is not by paying for two teachers in every classroom. It's probably some kind of a vision model. That's privacy first. They can observe the social interactions of children and let parents and teachers know what's going on.”
Rose: AI will end software engineering as non-subjective coding is solved
“I think engineering is over. I think we're going to be orchestrators of information, not engineers. I think those will be solved problems. Anything where there is a non subjective outcome, AI will tackle that and solve that problem.”
Rose: Students should not pursue computer science degrees right now
“I wouldn't go as a CS degree. I would not go into that right now, you know?”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Andreessen: Hollywood creators avoided political themes fearing career destruction
“These are all the hot button issues that if you screwed them up, you, in, in Hollywood, you got your career destroyed, right? So if you said the wrong thing about COVID lockdowns or vaccines, if you said the wrong thing about Trump, if you said the wrong thing…”
Andreessen: Mel Gibson's Passion sequel wouldn't be greenlit under Kamala Harris
“Mel Gibson finally got greenlit to do his sequel to Bachelor of the Christ, which is the resurrection movie, and which he's making right now. At least my friends in Hollywood are like, yeah, that never would have happened. Like, that never would have happened …”