The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9,830 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Unlike 2000 dark fiber, no dark GPUs exist today
“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”
Baker: Larry Page said he would risk bankruptcy to win AI race
“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”
Baker: GPT-V is not evidence that AI scaling laws are ending
“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Rose: AI relationship mediators will be considered healthy within 10 years
“10 years from now, will that tech be good enough to where we'll consider that to be not like just like a healthy thing for our relationship? I think so.”
Acharya: Schools will use AI vision models for social-emotional learning
“The way we're going to get there is not by paying for two teachers in every classroom. It's probably some kind of a vision model. That's privacy first. They can observe the social interactions of children and let parents and teachers know what's going on.”
Rose: AI will end software engineering as non-subjective coding is solved
“I think engineering is over. I think we're going to be orchestrators of information, not engineers. I think those will be solved problems. Anything where there is a non subjective outcome, AI will tackle that and solve that problem.”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Keith Rabois predicts 4% US GDP growth will render national debt irrelevant
“We're gonna have four percent or more growth all of next year. That will make the debt irrelevant. You can grow your way out of deficits.”
Keith Rabois predicts AI will enable 4% to 6% inflation-free GDP growth
“Well, I think you can run four to six percent durably without inflation, which is magic.”
Rabois: Anthropic and rivals present no real competition to ChatGPT
“But ChatGBT alone, there is no competition for. It's not like Anthropic or all these other companies have any competition for that.”
Alex Rampell asserts Google is artificially inflating Gemini daily active user metrics
“And I think the metrics that they're kind of faking right now is it's like what percentage of our users are using AI and that's not using Gemini as a DAU. I'm sure of that. It's just like they have like an AI summary, something, something in there, but they're…”
Keith Rabois predicts people will stop using Microsoft Word within five years
“Do people draft documents in Word in three, four, five years? Probably not.”
Rampell: Traditional banks will never be able to build software
“Well, and that's the thing, it's like, you know, software, like I'm very confident that all of the banks Cannot build software, will not be able to build software, will not build software.”
Labenz: Tool-Equipped Next-Gen AI Models Will Resemble Superintelligence
“When we start to give the next generation of the model these power tools, and they start to solve previously unsolved engineering problems, I think you start to have something that looks kind of like super intelligence.”
Labenz: AI will outperform average developers on standard apps within five years
“But I would be very surprised if you can't get your nuts and bolts Web app, mobile app type things spit out for you for far less and far faster than, and probably honestly with significantly higher quality and less back and forth with an AI system than, you kn…”
Misra: Current LLM architectures cannot recursively self-improve into new paradigms
“That kind of self-improvement is not possible with these architectures. They can refine these. They can fill out these rows where the answer already exists.”
Altman: Video AI models capable of deepfaking anyone will arrive soon
“So like, very soon, the world is going to have to contend with incredible video models that can deepfake anyone or kind of show anything you want, and that will mostly be great.”
Altman: AI models will make important scientific discoveries in two years
“So in two years, I think the models will be doing bigger chunks of science and making important discoveries.”
Altman: Current LLMs can advance enough to automate AI research breakthroughs
“I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology. Like I, it's a very self-referential answer, but if LLMs can get, if LLM based stuff can get far enough that it can do like better research th…”
Altman: AGI arrival will not transform the world as radically as expected
“AGI will come, it will go Wuxian Bai. The world will not change as much as the impossible amount that you would think it should.”
Nejatian: Opendoor launches home return policy in Dallas, Texas
“Which, by the way, we launched this yesterday at Opendoor in Dallas, Texas. You buy a home from Opendoor, you don't like it, you can return it. Like, you can move it early, try it out, don't like it, return it.”
Sinofsky: Only Apple and Elon Musk's companies do hardware well in US
“We have really only two companies doing a good job on, on hardware, which is the constellation of Elon companies and Apple. And after that, we run out.”
Wang: China will not implode; US-China competition is a long-term grind
“There is no implosion. When one side is ahead, the other side will overstep, and then the, then, and then they'll need to catch up. And so I want to say that there is no winner here. There is no loser here. It's not a race. Nobody gets to hit the win button. A…”
Kupor: OPM introduces forced distribution, capping top executive ratings at 30%
“So one of the things that we're doing, we just put out guidance on this, at least with respect to what are called the SES, which are the most senior level people in government, is we are effectively doing a modicum of a forced distribution. And so we put out g…”
Schimpf: China possesses 250 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US
“Where there's something like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity you know, massively, massively, probably thousands of times on the weapon side. You know, it is just on drones. It's massive. Like, you just, kind of look category by category, massively outpacin…”
Casado: H-1B consulting firms squeeze out $80k to $120k US IT jobs
“It's very, very tough to get a job between like 80 and a 120 K in, in much of the United States because of this, right? And so this isn't about like a new grad being a software engineer, because the reality is, is the expected value of a software engineer over…”
Bhattacharya: Leucovorin restores speech in 20% of autistic kids with folate deficiency
“You know, for kids who have this folate deficiency in their brains, that, it actually works. And 20% of the kids, I think, restore speech. Up to 60% of the kids, they get much better.”
Bhattacharya: FDA will issue updated pregnancy guidelines for acetaminophen use
“There will be, yeah. So that's something that Dr. McCary, the FDA commissioner is working on. And there'll be also you know, changes in, in like how Medicare pays, Medicare, CMS, Medicare, and Medicaid pay for Leucovorin. So it's a cross-agency collaboration f…”
Bhattacharya: COVID plexiglass barriers and restaurant masking lacked scientific backing
“You remember the plexiglass that was everywhere? There's still, every time there's see a plexiglass, it makes me, fills me with rage, but that's another story. And there was no science behind that, right? There was the, there was like the, you wear a mask when…”
Bhattacharya: Weak pandemic school closure policies set children back years educationally
“Closing schools, where again, the science was so weak that it, that and now kids are like years behind in their education as a result, and they'll be paying the price for that for years.”
Bhattacharya: Disparity in MMR and COVID child vaccination rates reflects evidence strength
“So, the uptake of MMR in this country, the MMR vaccine is like, 95% of American parents vaccinate their kids with MMR. The evidence is, and, I think it's like, 13% of American parents vaccinated their kids for the COVID vaccine. I think that reflects the scien…”
Patel: China Will Pause NVIDIA Bans During AI Chip Capacity Gap
“I think they'll be able to ramp. I think it'll take a little bit longer and there will be, like, a sort of a gap in between where China probably backtracks and says it's fine.”
Patel: OpenAI signed up to pay Oracle $80+ billion annually
“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”
Rampell: Coupon extensions like Honey steal affiliate attribution at checkout
“And then it's like, do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code? 10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine. It redirects you back to th…”
Mark Cuban says a 15% tariff would wipe out small business margins
“You increase, you know, from a two and a half percent average tariff to a 15% tariff, that's their profit margin, and it's gone.”
McCune: Effective Altruists spent a decade funding think tanks to steer AI
“You know, from my point of view and look, you know, they deserve a lot of credit. I think the effect of altruist community for 10 years backed by large sums of money were very, very effective at influencing think tanks and nonprofit organizations in D.C. And t…”
McCune: Current AI tech lobbying is dwarfed by decade of safety spending
“But I mean, when people are writing these articles about the fact that the AI industry is, you know, pumping all this money into the system, Certainly, like, I'm not suggesting that there's not money in the system. We're obviously active on the political and p…”
Boyle: Substack was the only platform protecting free speech
“There was one platform that stood up and said, hey, we are protecting free speech. And that was Substack.”
Best: Liberal media figures bore the brunt of 2020 cancellations
“The people that it really, I think in 20, 20, the thing that surprised me, the people that felt the brunt of that were not conservatives. We're not Republicans necessarily. It was the people in the liberal media. In, you know, in, in, in my telling, I would sa…”
Horowitz: Crypto is more transparent than Visa or dollars
“It's like literally the most transparent form of payment that there is in the world, like more than visa, more than dollars, more than anything.”
Horowitz: Media praised Facebook under Obama, called it dangerous under Trump
“The funny thing was like, if you go back to 2008, All the stories on how Obama got elected were Facebook. Like, he mastered Facebook. He got elected on Facebook. Facebook's the greatest thing. It's making the world more democratic. Arab Spring. Wow, this is so…”
Casado: VC firms ignoring AI have become irrelevant and absent from deals
“Some firms that were very, very relevant, we just never see anymore. I mean, like the founders don't talk about them. They're not there. They're not in the deals.”
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Smith: US factory construction boomed under Biden after decades of stagnation
“But when you look at factory construction, real, real factory construction, you saw this enormous, you saw it basically flat at a flat level for decades and decades at a fairly low level. Then you saw this enormous boom during the Biden years and all the facto…”
Patel: Claude Code and Cursor have surpassed GitHub Copilot in ARR
“If you look at the revenue ARR chart, it's like, Cloud code in, like, three months has surpassed them, and, like, cursor, you know, easily surpassed them, and then, like, even, like, companies like Replin or, like, and Windsurf slash Cognition are, like, gonna…”