The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18,204 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Masad: Being canceled is a choice because persistence outlasts public backlash
“Being canceled is a choice. You can choose to get canceled and retreat from the public eye, but I think if you're still out there, at some point, honestly, the haters kind of give up.”
Horowitz: Saudi Arabia is transitioning from a tribal society to a modern ally
“Saudi Arabia is going from this, ah, kind of tribal, ah, different kind of society, I would just say, to kind of a modern, you know, like, highly civilized, you know, player in the modern world and full ally of the United States.”
Horowitz: Norway's unrealized capital gains tax ended its tech ecosystem
“And so I think Norway introduced a unrealized capital gains tax, and that, that kind of effectively ended the tech ecosystem there.”
Woo: Andreessen Horowitz operates a propaganda arm to 'looks max' VC
“I think what you've done with the media strategy for Andreessen Horowitz, I mean, you guys are literally executing on looks maxing the VC world essentially, right? Like you guys have your own propaganda arm, just pushing out your view of the world.”
Geoffrey Woo: MrBeast's dominance stems from analytics, not camera charisma
“I feel like Mr. Beast is, like, so quantitative and analytical that it doesn't matter if Jimmy's in the video or not. Like, swap him out. For another, you know, game show host, maybe they're not as smooth, but I don't think Jimmy would say that he's even that …”
Andreessen: Companies Can No Longer Get Favorable Stories in Traditional Media
“There is no way to get to anything resembling a story that you're gonna like through the traditional media anymore. Like, it's just basically not possible.”
Andreessen: Legacy Media Has Lost Its Prestige and Respectability
“There's still this anxiety that people have, which is legacy media somehow is, like, where the respectability is, the prestige is. I don't believe that anymore, and I think it's very important for people to kind of get that out of their system.”
George: Anthropic and OpenAI add more monthly revenue than tech giants
“Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.”
David George: Anthropic and OpenAI combined run rate could hit $200B
“And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing two hundred billion of revenue run rate.”
David George: AI market is not currently in a bubble
“I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now.”
George: AI model companies are adding more revenue than public software combined
“The model companies are adding more than the entire public software universe in terms of revenue added, you know, combined.”
George: Top AI IPOs will individually exceed all recent VC IPOs combined
“We actually did a similar analysis where we looked at all of the VC backed IPOs that happened over the last six years. And if you sum all of them up, they're A little over a trillion dollars. Like that's probably gonna be smaller than any of the three of the l…”
George: AI coding assistant Cursor has reached billions in revenue
“Cursor, as an example, is, you know, billions of dollars of revenue. And they're very small, and it's very early in their life.”
Marc Rowan predicts blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline from AI
“What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of blue collar ascendancy and white collar decline.”
Rowan: Vast majority of UPenn donors reduced annual donations to $1
“Vast majority of donors decided to give the university a dollar per year versus whatever their donation was.”
Rowan: Apollo hires based on individual merit and distance traveled
“We've stuck with the same formula. We hire for merit. Adjusted for distance traveled. And distance traveled is not about your immutable characteristics. It is about you as an individual, not your class, not your group.”
Rowan: Apollo's climate investment policy permits financing hydrocarbons
“We're gonna make it better, not worse, but if that includes financing hydrocarbons, we're gonna finance hydrocarbons.”
Andreessen claims SPLC led debanking and cancellation programs for 15 years
“The SPLC specifically played a dominant role in the debanking and censorship and cancellation programs of the last 15 years.”
Andreessen: Advocacy groups have financial incentives to preserve their enemies
“If your group's entire purpose for existing is to fight an enemy, then you need to make sure that that enemy exists. To do that, of course, you would fund them.”
Andreessen: Every major Silicon Valley company is overstaffed
“Every major Silicon Valley company is overstaffed.”
Andreessen: Corporations do not optimize for profitability
“The one thing that is the least true claim in the world is the companies are optimized for profitability, which is 100% not true.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Andreessen: Press hates AI with the fury of a thousand suns
“What is the, you know, vanguard of tech right now? And one of the things is AI. And so the, of course, the press hates AI with the fury of a thousand suns. And so the press is running this, you know, sustained, you know, kind of fear campaign on AI.”
Horowitz: Anthropic's defense deal collapsed because they wanted out, not philosophy
“If you understand deals, particularly software deals, you realize that that deal did not fall apart because of philosophical differences. It fell apart because anthropic wanted out of the deal.”
Horowitz: Employees who refuse to support US defense work can leave a16z
“You're gonna decide that those people who are sacrificing their lives, putting their lives on the line to protect us, don't get the best technology? Like, I'm not doing that. I'm not doing that. So, like, you don't have to work here if you want to do that.”
Horowitz predicts AI will cure cancer, end traffic deaths, and eliminate poverty
“Not just we can, we're gonna end traffic deaths. We're gonna cure cancer. We'll, we're gonna end poverty, as we know it.”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Traditional private equity drawdown funds deliver net returns comparable to municipal bonds
“What I don't like about drawdown funds, the traditional private equity fund is, you know, you commit to them, they charge your management fees for a while, They find a deal, they draw it down, so your money's not been in the ground for a few years. And then a …”
Rogers: Previous administration pressured Twitter and Meta to censor posts
“Under the prior administration included things like global engagement center censorship efforts that were the subject of the Murphy Supreme Court litigation, where the State Department Along with other organs of the executive branch would contact Twitter or Me…”
Rogers: State Department shifts digital freedom policy toward VPNs and Community Notes
“Like, that was the kind of thing that was countenanced before that's not countenanced now, and we're much friendlier to initiatives like censorship circumvention VPNs and to initiatives like X's Community Notes that put that power in the hands of the users or …”
Rogers: EU official Thierry Breton threatened Elon Musk over Trump interview
“I think, you know, one key moment in August, 20, 24 was when a now former EC European Commission official, Terry Breton, Sent a letter to Elon Musk threatening him with regulatory penalties if he aired an upcoming interview on X with then presidential candidat…”
Rogers: AI military policy must be set by courts, not tech executives
“I think what is essential from a national security, national defense perspective Is that AI keeps its Western soul and that these really important debates about what you know, what kill shot the autonomous weapon should take or what the scope of data synthesis…”
Levie: AI code generation will increase software complexity and engineering jobs
“The funniest concept that the more code we write, the less we would need engineers would be the opposite because now your systems are even more complex than before, which means that you're going to be running into even more challenges of when you need to do a …”
Sinofsky: The narrative of an AI-driven 'Sasspocalypse' is completely foolish
“So, I actually think it, that whole discussion about headless, for me, made the Sasspocalypse seem even dumber Than it was already, and it was already dumb.”
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Andreessen: Online political fighting acts as a pressure valve preventing street violence
“My theory is the ability to directly participate in online virtual combat is shunting away a lot of the energy that in the past would have translated to street violence.”
Andreessen: Youth depression spikes are statistical artifacts driven by government benefits
“And so basically if you get paid or if you get like special dispensation in school for having, you know, psychological issues, all of a sudden you see a massive spike in those psychological issues. The countries that don't have that, the other Western countrie…”
Andreessen: A lot of AI doomerism is paid for by dark money
“We know that there's dark money in AI. Like a lot of the AI doomerism stuff is basically bought and paid for.”
Jessie Genet: AI will reverse declining global fertility rates
“AI will be a dawn of a reversal in that fertility rate decline and will be like a halcyon era for parenthood.”
Casado: Adapting software by merely marketing APIs to agents is wrong
“People in the abstract say things like, now you're marketing to agents, you're like an API, you've got a good idea. I actually think that's almost exactly wrong.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI does not take jobs, it makes workers CEOs
“AI doesn't take your job, AI makes you the CEO.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will make the global internet resemble China's
“I actually think AI makes the internet a lot more like the Chinese internet.”
Balaji Srinivasan: China will stop autonomous AI using cryptographic kill switches
“Way before it gets there, I'm pretty sure that kind of thing will be stopped from the Chinese because they will just have cryptographic keys that will just make all those things shut off, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized US AI firms won't reach trillions due to backlash
“So I don't think that in that form they're going to get to trillions. In fact, I think the counterattack on them is going to be so dramatic that it might be that you just have decentralized AI.”