The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,975 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
David George: AI market is not currently in a bubble
“I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now.”
George: AI model companies are adding more revenue than public software combined
“The model companies are adding more than the entire public software universe in terms of revenue added, you know, combined.”
George: AI coding assistant Cursor has reached billions in revenue
“Cursor, as an example, is, you know, billions of dollars of revenue. And they're very small, and it's very early in their life.”
Rowan: Vast majority of UPenn donors reduced annual donations to $1
“Vast majority of donors decided to give the university a dollar per year versus whatever their donation was.”
Andreessen claims SPLC led debanking and cancellation programs for 15 years
“The SPLC specifically played a dominant role in the debanking and censorship and cancellation programs of the last 15 years.”
Horowitz: Anthropic's defense deal collapsed because they wanted out, not philosophy
“If you understand deals, particularly software deals, you realize that that deal did not fall apart because of philosophical differences. It fell apart because anthropic wanted out of the deal.”
Rogers: Previous administration pressured Twitter and Meta to censor posts
“Under the prior administration included things like global engagement center censorship efforts that were the subject of the Murphy Supreme Court litigation, where the State Department Along with other organs of the executive branch would contact Twitter or Me…”
Rogers: State Department shifts digital freedom policy toward VPNs and Community Notes
“Like, that was the kind of thing that was countenanced before that's not countenanced now, and we're much friendlier to initiatives like censorship circumvention VPNs and to initiatives like X's Community Notes that put that power in the hands of the users or …”
Rogers: EU official Thierry Breton threatened Elon Musk over Trump interview
“I think, you know, one key moment in August, 20, 24 was when a now former EC European Commission official, Terry Breton, Sent a letter to Elon Musk threatening him with regulatory penalties if he aired an upcoming interview on X with then presidential candidat…”
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Andreessen: Youth depression spikes are statistical artifacts driven by government benefits
“And so basically if you get paid or if you get like special dispensation in school for having, you know, psychological issues, all of a sudden you see a massive spike in those psychological issues. The countries that don't have that, the other Western countrie…”
Andreessen: A lot of AI doomerism is paid for by dark money
“We know that there's dark money in AI. Like a lot of the AI doomerism stuff is basically bought and paid for.”
Horowitz: Balaji Srinivasan temporarily quit a16z over NYT article crisis
“Inside the firm, it was such a big crisis that actually, I'm pretty sure Bology quit, because he thought we were dead, because the New York Times had just, like, ruined the whole firm with that article.”
Misra: LLMs are just silicon doing matrix multiplication, not conscious beings
“You can rule out they're conscious. I mean, come on. And I said, you know, Anthropic makes great products. Cloud code is fantastic. Co-work is fantastic, but they are grains of silicon doing matrix multiplication. They don't have consciousness. They don't have…”
Michael: DOD AI adoption grew from 80k to 1.2M in 90 days
“In 90 days, I think we've had 1.2 million of the three million people at the department. Use some form of AI when that was, that number was 80,000 before I started.”
Karp: Palantir is fundamentally an anti-surveillance company
“Despite what everyone thinks Palantir is the anti-surveillance company, I know your person online thinks that's not true, but every technical expert does”
George: OpenAI and Anthropic added half of public software's 2025 net revenue
“Public software companies added forty six billion dollars of revenue in 20, 25. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their, on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that.”
Mares: Ketogenic diets can resolve schizophrenia, epilepsy, and bipolar symptoms
“One of the best therapies for someone that is schizophrenic or epileptic Or even, in many cases, bipolar. If you put them on a ketogenic diet, these things will, in many cases, just resolve.”
Horowitz: a16z Has Higher IQ Concentration Than Any Operating Company
“We just have a higher concentration of talent here than that's probably possible in a company in terms of just Sheer IQ.”
Horowitz: Memphis police lowered recruitment standards enough to hire criminals
“Because of the shortage many police departments have lowered their standards. So the kind of criticism of the police was, okay, you have, and it really, like, if you looked into it, There were some, like, psychos who joined the police force. They couldn't get …”
Horowitz: Post-Rampart LAPD recruited gang members who killed Notorious B.I.G.
“What happened in the LAPD with the Rampart scandal right after the Rodney King incident They had the same kind of thing. Everybody got fired, et cetera. They had trouble recruiting. They started recruiting people out of gangs and those gang members ended up, y…”
Horowitz: Reallocating police funds to social work has failed
“So you have to have, I'm not against social work, but you can't do it at the expense of crime, you know, law enforcement, and we saw that. I mean, like, we ran the experiment, it didn't work.”
Horowitz: Las Vegas police shootings dropped 75% after tech deployment
“Police shootings of suspects in Vegas dropped like 75% when we first put the cameras and the drones in place.”
Horowitz: LAPD corruption and rogue officers protected Tupac Shakur's killers
“Well, in that case, the LAPD was corrupt, and the, well, there were literally criminals in the police force protecting the criminals who killed Tupac, and, you know, thankfully, we kind of reopened the cold case, and we caught the guy, but it's,”
Horowitz: Prosecutors and judges are funded to avoid convicting criminals
“There's a huge push to not criminal, to decriminalize crime, essentially, in this country. And, like, it's still going on, and it's, you know, there are still these, you know, prosecutors and judges that are funded basically for the purposes of not convicting …”
Horowitz: San Francisco's shoplifting policy enabled organized crime, not hungry residents
“In San Francisco, right, like, the whole political movement was, people are hungry, you can't arrest them for shoplifting and so forth, so as soon as we did that, what happened was massive gangs took everything out of the stores. They ended up, right, shutting…”
Only Three Tech Employees Attended an Obama Border Official's Talk
“He went out and actually got a former director, ah, actually, he got, ah, a guy who had actually been in the Obama administration, as basically the head of border, the head of the border security in the Obama administration, to basically come in and give an ho…”
Shear: Treating ChatGPT and Claude as beings yields lower predictive loss
“I get lower predictive loss when I treat them as a being. And the thing is, I get lower predictive loss when I treat ChatGPT or Claude as a being.”
Sacks: Top Biden AI officials immediately joined Anthropic after leaving government
“Literally the minute the Biden administration was over, all the top Biden AI employees went to go work at Anthropic, which tells you who they were working with during the Biden years.”
Baker: Unlike 2000 dark fiber, no dark GPUs exist today
“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”
Baker: Larry Page said he would risk bankruptcy to win AI race
“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”
Baker: GPT-V is not evidence that AI scaling laws are ending
“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Rabois: Anthropic and rivals present no real competition to ChatGPT
“But ChatGBT alone, there is no competition for. It's not like Anthropic or all these other companies have any competition for that.”
Alex Rampell asserts Google is artificially inflating Gemini daily active user metrics
“And I think the metrics that they're kind of faking right now is it's like what percentage of our users are using AI and that's not using Gemini as a DAU. I'm sure of that. It's just like they have like an AI summary, something, something in there, but they're…”
Misra: Current LLM architectures cannot recursively self-improve into new paradigms
“That kind of self-improvement is not possible with these architectures. They can refine these. They can fill out these rows where the answer already exists.”
Nejatian: Opendoor launches home return policy in Dallas, Texas
“Which, by the way, we launched this yesterday at Opendoor in Dallas, Texas. You buy a home from Opendoor, you don't like it, you can return it. Like, you can move it early, try it out, don't like it, return it.”
Sinofsky: Only Apple and Elon Musk's companies do hardware well in US
“We have really only two companies doing a good job on, on hardware, which is the constellation of Elon companies and Apple. And after that, we run out.”
Kupor: OPM introduces forced distribution, capping top executive ratings at 30%
“So one of the things that we're doing, we just put out guidance on this, at least with respect to what are called the SES, which are the most senior level people in government, is we are effectively doing a modicum of a forced distribution. And so we put out g…”
Schimpf: China possesses 250 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US
“Where there's something like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity you know, massively, massively, probably thousands of times on the weapon side. You know, it is just on drones. It's massive. Like, you just, kind of look category by category, massively outpacin…”
Casado: H-1B consulting firms squeeze out $80k to $120k US IT jobs
“It's very, very tough to get a job between like 80 and a 120 K in, in much of the United States because of this, right? And so this isn't about like a new grad being a software engineer, because the reality is, is the expected value of a software engineer over…”
Bhattacharya: Leucovorin restores speech in 20% of autistic kids with folate deficiency
“You know, for kids who have this folate deficiency in their brains, that, it actually works. And 20% of the kids, I think, restore speech. Up to 60% of the kids, they get much better.”
Bhattacharya: COVID plexiglass barriers and restaurant masking lacked scientific backing
“You remember the plexiglass that was everywhere? There's still, every time there's see a plexiglass, it makes me, fills me with rage, but that's another story. And there was no science behind that, right? There was the, there was like the, you wear a mask when…”
Bhattacharya: Weak pandemic school closure policies set children back years educationally
“Closing schools, where again, the science was so weak that it, that and now kids are like years behind in their education as a result, and they'll be paying the price for that for years.”
Bhattacharya: Disparity in MMR and COVID child vaccination rates reflects evidence strength
“So, the uptake of MMR in this country, the MMR vaccine is like, 95% of American parents vaccinate their kids with MMR. The evidence is, and, I think it's like, 13% of American parents vaccinated their kids for the COVID vaccine. I think that reflects the scien…”
Patel: OpenAI signed up to pay Oracle $80+ billion annually
“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”
Rampell: Coupon extensions like Honey steal affiliate attribution at checkout
“And then it's like, do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code? 10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine. It redirects you back to th…”