The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9,830 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Karp: Displacing jobs without supporting defense will lead to tech nationalization
“If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, Meaning primarily democratic shaped people met whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one par…”
Acharya: A single individual will eventually build a $100 billion revenue company
“I think that there are businesses that will be built by, you know, a hundred billion revenue, one person.”
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will drive global professional wages toward $20K equilibrium
“If you've got, let's say, a lawyer who's making 200 K a year in the US or a doctor in the West, and then you've got somebody from the Philippines or India or anywhere in the world who's making currently 2000 dollars a year, maybe the converged wage with AI plu…”
Andreessen: Big Tech is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture against startups
“Quite honestly, I mean, part of what's happening is big tech is against us. There, there's a, there's basically a lot of the political issues now are a civil war inside the tech industry where, The big tech companies are lobbying very aggressively for what the…”
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Andreessen: Vinod Khosla lobbied Congress to ban open-source AI
“Vinod has been lobbying to ban open source AI. And by the way, he denies that he's been doing this, but I saw him with my own eyes when the US Congressional China Committee came to Stanford I was in the meeting where he was with, you know, 30 20 or 30 congress…”
Horowitz: Scientists absolutely knew COVID-19 originated from a lab leak
“The lab leak was a great example of that. The, you know, people absolutely knew as a lab leak, the scientists absolutely knew as a lab leak, but for the greater good we're going to say it was not.”
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Balaji Srinivasan: The FDA caused one million preventable COVID-19 deaths
“And you could have avoided like a million dead. That million dead is on the FDA's head, like, because challenge trials could have been done, you know?”
Harari: Superior algorithms will render democracy and free markets completely obsolete
“And once you have an external entity, An algorithm that knows me better than I know myself. This is the real turning point. This is the point when individualism as we've known, it doesn't make any sense when democracy in the free market become completely obsol…”
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Paul Krugman predicts most crypto projects will look like Pets.com by 2033
“My guess is, however, that I think I don't actually believe that we're at the dawn of a new age. I actually believe that we're at the that that most of this 10 years back, 15 years, 15 years from now, it will look a lot like Pets.com.”
Marc Rowan predicts disastrous returns for private equity enterprise software deals
“I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous. Because so much of exposure is to enterprise software, and this does not mean that enterprise software companies are going out of business. Far from it. It means that the prosp…”
Andreessen: Police Reform and Defund Movements Caused Massive Crime Waves
“All these, like, you know, crime policy reform, defund the police things, and that causes these massive crime waves, and then, of course, low-income and minority people get hit hardest by that”
Isaacman: NASA astronauts will build President Trump's moon base
“When we return to the moon, America will not look down on the prime lunar real estate while our rivals occupy it. NASA astronauts will be on the surface, building President Trump's moon base, and we will realize the scientific, economic, and national security …”
Isaacman: China's moon schedule is potentially within a year of NASA's
“Regardless if we had a rival that is, again, within potentially a year of our schedule on this, it is still, the changes we announced last week is still in the correct direction.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase and MicroStrategy will likely be seized
“Like, will all the centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase's servers, Sailor servers, et cetera, get seized? I think it's quite likely. I think it eventually gets seized in some exigent circumstance.”
Jennings: Block's >40% RIF heavily targeted software developers over sales
“We did a reduction in force that was, you know, slightly greater than 40%. And that wasn't even you know, to the conversation we were just having, the tools were flowing through really meaningfully on the development side. And so the cuts were way larger on th…”
Jennings: Block engineers no longer write code by hand
“I mean, we're like, we're not writing code by hand anymore. That's over. That's done.”
Michael: Inherited Pentagon AI contracts created dangerous vendor lock-in
“Well, they came up now because as I started to look at the contracts that had been written during the last administration for the use of AI. I had a whole, holy cow moment because there were things not well beyond what you've been hearing in the press in the l…”
Michael: AI vendor questioned software use in Maduro raid
“And then second, after the Maduro raid, one of the primary vendor for this had raised the question, senior exec about whether their software was used during the Maduro raid, which is one of the most successful op military, military operations of our lifetime. …”
Mares: Coca-Cola spent $140M influencing US nutrition guidelines over 15 years
“Coca-Cola spending one hundred forty million dollars to influence our nutrition guidelines like they have over the last, you know, 15 years.”
Perret: Financial fraud is currently the largest practical use case for AI
“It turns out the biggest use case for AI is fraudsters committing fraud against financial services companies.”
Epoch AI: Human-level AI means 30% GDP growth or human extinction
“Assuming in the next 10 years we get AI that is capable of doing any remote job as well as any human. I think, you know, 30% GDP growth seems like a lower bound on something that's reasonable. Assuming you get, this is a big assumption that a lot of people are…”
Adam D'Angelo: LLMs will perform all human tasks cheaper within 5-15 years
“I do think at some point you get to LMs can, they can do Everything, every single thing a human can do for cheaper. Like, I don't see a reason why we don't eventually get there. That may take five, 1015 years.”
Andreessen: Biden officials explicitly told a16z they planned to ban open-source AI
“They told us that explicitly. And yeah. And they told us exactly what you just said. They told us they're gonna ban open source. And when we challenged them on the ability to ban open source, because it's, you know, we're talking about, you know, math, you kno…”
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Masad: Laypersons will soon match senior Google software engineers via AI
“I think that the lay person will be as good as a what a senior software engineer that works at Google is today. So I think that's happening very soon.”
Keith Rabois predicts ChatGPT will become a multi-trillion dollar monopoly
“I think ChatGBT becomes a monopoly. It's the fastest growing consumer product of all time. It is transforming how everybody, every normal person basically does their work, runs their life. And so that product alone is a several trillion dollar company.”
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Altman: Society will deem AI training fair use but create IP licensing models
“So like, you'll see this continue to move, but forced guests from the position we're in today, I would say that society decides training is fair use, but There's a new model for generating content in the style of or with the IPF or something else.”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Bhattacharya: NIH funded the Wuhan lab without the capability to audit it
“The NIH had sent money to the Wuhan lab but we couldn't audit it.”
Acharya: Single-person $100M run-rate companies are coming or already exist
“The like single person, a hundred million run rate company is coming, or maybe it's already here.”
Patel: Intel faces bankruptcy without massive cash infusion or 50% layoffs
“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
U.S. military can no longer move assets domestically uncontested
“In this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space, you know, threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested no longer exists. It p…”
Horowitz: Gensler and Warren refused to meet with a16z on crypto policy
“They didn't, ah, even say anything out loud, but they would not take a meeting with us, like, you know, none of the people in charge of those agencies, Gary Gensler, wouldn't meet with us, Elizabeth Warren, wouldn't meet with, like, nobody to even hear why we …”
Sivulka: AI agents will contribute over 50% of global GDP within a decade
“One of my big predictions is that over 50% of the global GDP will be contributed by AI agents sometime in the next decade.”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Horowitz: Google and Microsoft use safety rhetoric to lobby against open-source AI
“And they do it like the really kind of nasty thing is they claim, oh, it's for safety. You know, we've created an alien that we can't control, but we're not going to stop working on it. We're going to keep building it as fast as we can. And we're going to buy …”
Horowitz: AI economic value will accrue to tools, not base models
“The actual layer where the value is gonna crew is gonna be like tools, orchestration, that kind of thing, because you can just plug in whatever the best model is at the time. Whereas the models are gonna be competing, you know, in a death battle with each othe…”
Gallagher: Hundreds of billions in US capital fund Chinese military tech
“We have trillions, billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars, American dollars that are flowing into Chinese technology and military companies that are building things like aircraft carriers, artillery shells, fighter jets, things that are designed to…”
Horowitz: 50 years of affirmative action failed to help African Americans
“I think, look, I think it's clearly not working also in the, yeah, I mean, they were there, you know, with the kind of ruling on affirmative action, there were so many studies that showed that It didn't actually help African-Americans. 50 years, you know, forg…”