The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Horowitz: Anthropic has the worst code security practices in AI
“Their reputation is they have the literally the worst security practices in the entire industry with respect to their own code.”
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Casado: Google's AI models are getting trounced by OpenAI and Anthropic
“Google is Google. They have all the data, they have all the intelligence and like their models are getting trounced. By open AI and by anthropic.”
Moe: Developers abandon proprietary models due to false-positive safety guardrails
“A lot of our developer within Infrax and for VLM are like retreating from using Fable five because you have a two hour job and you trigger the red line, which is false positive. And then you have to lose all of your work. And so a lot of our developer are usin…”
George: Anthropic and OpenAI add more monthly revenue than tech giants
“Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.”
David George: Anthropic and OpenAI combined run rate could hit $200B
“And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing two hundred billion of revenue run rate.”
Horowitz: Anthropic's defense deal collapsed because they wanted out, not philosophy
“If you understand deals, particularly software deals, you realize that that deal did not fall apart because of philosophical differences. It fell apart because anthropic wanted out of the deal.”
Misra: LLMs are just silicon doing matrix multiplication, not conscious beings
“You can rule out they're conscious. I mean, come on. And I said, you know, Anthropic makes great products. Cloud code is fantastic. Co-work is fantastic, but they are grains of silicon doing matrix multiplication. They don't have consciousness. They don't have…”
George: OpenAI and Anthropic added half of public software's 2025 net revenue
“Public software companies added forty six billion dollars of revenue in 20, 25. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their, on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that.”
Sacks: Top Biden AI officials immediately joined Anthropic after leaving government
“Literally the minute the Biden administration was over, all the top Biden AI employees went to go work at Anthropic, which tells you who they were working with during the Biden years.”
Rabois: Anthropic and rivals present no real competition to ChatGPT
“But ChatGBT alone, there is no competition for. It's not like Anthropic or all these other companies have any competition for that.”
Andreessen: Anthropic is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture in D.C.
“Anthropic is very much in the group of kind of big tech, you know, kind of new incumbent big tech, you know, lobbying very aggressively for regulation and regulatory capture. In D.C., and so I think it's sort of an open question whether Amazon is going to pick…”
Amodei: AI training costs will hit $1B in 2024 and up to $10B in 2025
“I think that next year we're probably going to see from multiple players models on the order of one billion dollars, and in 2025 we're going to see models on the order of Several billion, I don't know, perhaps even ten billion dollars.”
Verdian predicts Anthropic is about to go public five years after funding
“Anthropic was really first funded in twenty-twenty-one. It's about to go public five years later.”
Chi: Claude Sonnet Often Costs More Than Opus Due to Token Appetite
“We're actually seeing in a lot of cases, Sonnet is more expensive than Opus because it is so token hungry.”
Chi: Anthropic operates on narrow margins due to high serving costs
“Anthropic is running on pretty narrow margins to support this. And they have, you know, massive cost to serve these models.”
Anthropic Asks Candidates If They Are Fine With Equity Going to Zero
“Anthropic is now in their culture interviews saying, how would you feel if the equity went to zero? Because we're looking for people who are mission aligned.”
AI Adoption Accelerated Across OpenAI, Open Source, and Grok in Summer
“Now, if we're being honest, you know, Anthropic is you know, in a quiet period, so maybe they've slowed down a little bit, but I do think the rest of the world has accelerated, you know, OpenAI is clearly accelerated. Open source, I think, has accelerated more…”
Anthropic Cleaned Up Accounting to Make Revenue Comparable to OpenAI
“If you're anthropic, one, I think they probably trued up and cleaned up some accounting. You would, you'd rather do that. So you rebased and now you're comparable to open AI.”
Kha: Anthropic Is Going Public Later This Year
“But obviously, anthropics go in public later this year.”
Acharya: AI Foundation Model Race Will Have Multiple Winners, Not Just One
“I'm a many winners guy, and I see I'm in a, yeah, I'm in good company with many of you. I mean, if you look at what's happened in the last two weeks you know, XAI went from not even being a real contender on the model side to being, you know, one of three, so …”
Clark: Top 1% VC exit threshold could pass $100B by September
“And then if you then think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in you know, potentially we could be north of a hundred billion dollars by September.”
Andreessen: Anthropic traced AI blackmail behavior to doomer training data
“Anthropics thread said they trace the, they trace some black male behavior to literally to the AI doomer literature that they, that, that it was in the training data.”
Horowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic will not sell directly to travel managers
“And then the second thing that's like, nobody wants to do, including open AI or Anthropic is sell to the damn travel manager. Like nobody has a channel to the travel manager.”
George: Portfolio Coding Startups Will Instantly Switch Models for Better Performance
“If there's a new coding model that comes along, that's better than the latest version from Anthropic, like, Our coding companies will just switch and it's pretty easy to do because it's an API call.”
Andreessen: xAI Reached Frontier Performance Parity in Under 12 Months
“XAI basically caught up to, you know, state of the art open AI anthropic level in, in like less than 12 months from a standing start.”
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Acharya: Big tech will fail at multi-model aggregator tools like Cursor
“I think the other interesting area where the labs and the bigs are not going to be successful is products that benefit from being multimodal, right? Not multimodal, but multimodal. So cursor is good because you can use every model inside of it. And Google is n…”
Casado: a16z avoids lesser-known SOTA AI model startups due to heavy subsidies
“So the state-of-the-art model market, this is like the, you know, the Anthropics and the Open AIs it's incredibly competitive, and it's very heavily subsidized, right? I mean, like with Meta and like Google, et cetera, and so kind of our view is, is you have t…”
Patel: OpenAI and Anthropic consume 30% of top-tier AI chips
“Just OpenAI and Anthropic and the compute that they have and are getting this year from Google and Amazon for Anthropic and from Microsoft, CoreWeave, Oracle for OpenAI, 30% of the chips are going to them, just those two companies.”
Casado: OpenAI is vertically integrated while Anthropic operates horizontally
“I would say that OpenAI is very much a vertically integrated company now with ChatGPT driving a lot of it. I would say Anthropic, a lot of the usage really is more horizontal, and they're doing a great job of that.”
Casado: DeepSeek's $6M reasoning model cost aligns with OpenAI and Anthropic
“The fact that they spent six million dollars just in the chain of thought is actually not out of whack with what Anthropik has now said they've spent in OpenAI has said that they spent.”
Casado: DeepSeek release is not a crisis for OpenAI, Anthropic, or Nvidia
“I personally don't think this is a crisis moment for open AI or Anthropic. I think like apps are hard to build. I think that like right now the apps that they put out are very complex. They actually know their users. They have very specific use cases. And so, …”
Wang: OpenAI and Anthropic must build application businesses to stay independent
“You have to believe that, that an open AI or an anthropic can build great applications businesses to for them to be longterm independent and sustainable.”
Andreessen: Google shelved 2017 transformer breakthrough until startups forced its hand
“Google invented the transformer in 2017 and then put it on a shelf. And then startups came in and sort of picked up that idea and ran with it, OpenAI and now Anthropic and others and many others now. And then as a consequence, Google has now been forced to rea…”
D'Angelo: Frontier AI model providers will maintain strong profit margins
“And so it's, you know, right now it's OpenAI, Google, maybe Anthropic. Maybe, maybe Meta can be there. Those who can get there, I think it's going to be good business. You'll be able to make a lot of money. You can have good profit margins. You'll have to work…”
Ghodsi: Enterprise CEOs want proprietary AI models to protect their data
“One of the things that's really interesting that's happened in the sort of brains of the CEOs and the boards is that they realize Maybe I can beat my competition. Maybe this is the kryptonite that will help me kill my enemy. I have the data with generative AI.…”
Anthropic plans to formalize a safe scaling framework with capability checkpoints
“One broad way that we've been thinking about it from the beginning and are probably going to work more on formalizing it over the coming months and years is this idea of sort of safe scaling or checkpointing. So there could be this kind of alternating step whe…”
Kha predicts top venture outcomes will reach $100B with OpenAI and Anthropic
“Soon to be probably a hundred billion by the time Anthropic and then OpenAI came, come out.”
Casado: Cursor navigated Microsoft/Anthropic competition and M&A in two years
“I mean, imagine like starting competing with Microsoft, ending, ending up competing with say, Anthropic, you know, both of these kind of, you know, mega companies with tremendous amount of capital and power and distribution. In the meantime, you evolve like fu…”
Bornstein: OpenAI and Anthropic models remain more critical than open source
“At any given point in time, including now, I think models from open AI and Anthropic are kind of more widely used and more critical kind of in general than open source models.”
Masad: Anthropic genuinely believes in AI safety, not cynical marketing
“No matter what people think of what's happening at Anthropic, It's absolutely true. I think in my mind that they believe everything they're doing, they believe in safety, they believe in their mission. And I think that gives them incredible strength to keep go…”
Casado: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cursor show tremendous real growth
“The reality is, is open AI has grown tremendously, and Anthropic has grown tremendously, and Cursor has grown tremendously, and so, like, there is some underlying market signals To fuel the chaos.”
Patel: Majority of OpenAI's revenue comes from consumer subscriptions
“Anthropic is fully focused on B to B, right? API code, et cetera, right? Where, or cloud code, whatever it is, right? OpenAI, yes, they have that business, Kodaks and API business, but really their majority of the revenue is consumer, right?”
Patel: AI labs are buying RL environments for Amazon and Shopify
“Everyone knows that, like, Anthropic and OpenAI and all the other labs are buying RL environments of Amazon and of, like, Shopify and of Etsy and of all the different ways to shop on the internet. Of airline websites, right?”
Acharya: Anthropic's Claude surpasses ChatGPT in coding and creative writing
“Claude sits in this very interesting place where it seems like it's more beloved by a smaller number of people. It's better at, Creative writing. You know, it seems to have more of a personality, which is interesting, because at least I think it's designed to …”
Casado: DeepSeek's Threat to OpenAI Is Limited if AI Apps Require Proprietary Models
“It could be that the apps actually require you to own the model. And in that case, DeepSeek is less relevant because they're not building apps. And then, you know, this means that the impact to the opening AIs or Anthropics are not as great, right?”