smartphone

also referred to as: smartphones

70 statements across 54 episodes · 40 bullish · 7 bearish · 24 people on the record · first statement Jul 15, 2017 by Benedict Evans · across every show →

Everything said about smartphone, oldest first

Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Over four billion adults will own smartphones by 2020
“By the end of this decade, we'll probably go to three quarters of the population being online. Out of five billion adults on Earth, four billion, or over four billion, will have mobile, four billion will have smartphones, and PCs, and consumer PCs in particula…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 1:01 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Mobile represents a 10x economic opportunity over PCs by 2020
“So there are two or three times more smartphones and PCs by 20 20, but you need to multiply those smartphones because they're personal and they're taken everywhere and they're frictionless and they have sensors and cameras and payments and all these other thin…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:57 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Smartphones provide better libraries than 1990s Ivy League universities
“Everybody who has a smartphone, which is pretty soon going to be everybody in the world, has the Library of Congress in their pocket. So that means a girl growing up in Bangladesh now has a better library than a student at Columbia or Harvard had 20 years ago.”
Ben Horowitz Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 15:41 Don't Follow Your Passion
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Insight
Evans: Wearables, IoT, and drones are fundamentally just reassembled smartphones
“It powers wearables and Internet of Things and connected cars and drones and everything else, because fundamentally all of those things are basically smartphones just put together in a different way, but put together by the same people with the same components…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:47 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Evans: Over four billion adults globally will own smartphones by 2020
“That means that by 20 20 of about seven billion people on earth and a bit over five billion adults, over four billion will have a mobile phone, and almost all of those will have converted to a smartphone”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 1:28 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Global internet population reached 3 billion, smartphone users 2 billion
“We've gone to about three billion people online and two billion people with smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 0:47 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans: The next billion internet users will be driven entirely by smartphones
“And then the next few years, we'll add another billion and all of that growth will be driven by smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 0:52 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017
Insight
Evans: Airbnb, Uber, and Lyft are not fundamentally technology companies
“And in the same sense, Airbnb and Uber and Lyft are fundamentally enabled by smartphones. They may, they would not be possible without smartphones. They certainly wouldn't be possible without the internet, but they're not in The technology business. They're no…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 22:56 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Insight
Evans: Cheap Android devices drive rapid smartphone adoption in emerging markets
“Not a smartphone yet, but that's converting quite quickly to smartphones. And of course the thing that drives that is cheap Android.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 2:56 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Insight
Modern marketplace companies are entirely enabled by smartphones
“A lot of the businesses we saw in two point on the last page are completely enabled by smartphones and would essentially be impossible without the smartphone.”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 12:59 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts global smartphone ownership will double to 5 billion
“About two and a half billion people have smartphones, and that will go to five billion smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 0:27 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 16, 2017
Assertion Supported
Chan: Chinese Citizens Can Pay Traffic Fines Directly via WeChat
“Again, things such as even paying their traffic bills are possible all with their smartphone.”
Connie Chan Jul 16, 2017 ▶ 4:53 A Whirlwind Tour Through Tech Trends in China
Dec 5, 2017
Assertion Supported
Evans: Mobile market reached 3 billion smartphones and 5 billion total phones
“So there's three billion smartphones, five billion mobile phones, maybe five and a half billion adults.”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 0:34 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Jan 21, 2018 bullish
Prediction Held up
Strange: Global banking will expand via smartphones rather than branches
“But what we'll see is that banking services in most of the world are not going to arise via branches and credit cards. They're going to come up via your smartphone.”
Angela Strange Jan 21, 2018 ▶ 16:25 The Next 3 Billion in Financial Services
Feb 3, 2018
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: 900,000 new smartphone subscribers activated every three days in 2018
“The actual number of cell phone users in the year 2000 was a hundred and nine million, and today 900,000 new subscribers turn on their smartphones for the very first time every three days.”
Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 0:20 The Autonomy Ecosystem: Where and How It Begins (1 of 8)
Dec 21, 2018 bullish
Prediction Held up
Dixon: Smartphone users will hit 5 billion as hardware drops to $3
“You can get a 15 dollar Android phone now. That will come down. You'll be able to get a three dollar phone. It'll probably be like Benedict Evans, who works with us, comes up, he does all these studies on this. It'll be, there'll be something, there's like thr…”
Chris Dixon Dec 21, 2018 ▶ 24:53 Company Building in Crypto: A Conversation between Brian Armstrong and Chris Dixon
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Benedict Evans: On smartphones, the device itself is the platform
“The smartphone itself becomes a social platform, whereas Facebook, you know, whereas, you know, on the desktop you had the browser, and then inside the browser you had Facebook, and then inside Facebook you had a social platform, whereas on a smartphone that's…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:24 a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile’s Own PageRank
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dixon: Almost all smartphones will capture 3D imaging within two years
“I think within two years for phones, almost all smartphones will be able to take three to three D imaging.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:30 a16z Podcast | Oculus and the (Mind-Blowing) Reality of Virtual Reality
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Consumers are skipping tablets and going straight to smartphones
“Actually what real people are doing is leapfrogging tablets and going straight to smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:49 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Benedict Evans: Global smartphone adoption will reach three billion units
“There are about one and a half billion smartphones on earth now, and we'll go up to maybe three billion, and they'll be everywhere.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:09 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Evans: Smartphones unbundled the internet from the web browser
“What the smartphone did was unbundle the internet from the web and amongst many other things.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:18 a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Smart temperature control saves ~20% on office energy use
“It turns out you can save, it's like some astounding number, like 20% of energy use using that.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:28 a16z Podcast | The Wearables Session
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Andreessen: 5 to 7 billion people will own smartphones by 2020
“And this is the thing I've been talking a lot about that people occasionally get angry about, because they think it won't Can't possibly come true, but I'm convinced it's going to come true, which is I think everybody on the planet by the end of the decade is …”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:36 a16z Podcast | Ben and Marc Explain (Practically) Everything – Part 1
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2019
Evans predicts up to 90% of the global population will own smartphones
“Mobile and therefore smartphones is a product that 70, 80, 90% of people on earth are going to have”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:55 a16z Podcast | Selling Tech to Everyone -- Changes Everything
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans argues high-volume text entry is a narrow fraction of global work
“The first is to say, well, I enter high volumes of text, or I do this precision work with a detail work with a mouse. You can't do that on a smartphone or a keyboard, therefore it's useless. And the answer is, yes, but most people don't actually do that. That'…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:13 a16z Podcast | Selling Tech to Everyone -- Changes Everything
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts one billion people will first experience the internet via smartphones
“There's going to be a billion people whose first experience of the internet, or the first experience of owning a device that can use the internet, is going to be a smartphone.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:27 a16z Podcast | Selling Tech to Everyone -- Changes Everything
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Andreessen: Every person globally will own a smartphone by decade's end
“So the big thing happening in the world right now is the smartphone, and the significance of the smartphone is, for the first time in human history, we're going to get a computer in everybody's hands, and by everybody, I mean everybody on the planet and by eve…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:10 a16z Podcast | What Makes the Valley Work
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Myanmar's 51.4 million people are accessing the internet directly via smartphones
“Basically, Myanmar is going more or less straight, not just to mobile, but straight to smartphone, and you're going to have 51.4 million people experiencing internet and engaging with the internet for the first time through smartphones, and that is, ah, that's…”
David Madden Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:53 a16z Podcast | Technology and the Opening of Myanmar
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans: Global smartphone adoption will reach 4 billion devices
“And we'll go to four billion. There's about three and a half to four billion people on Earth today who have a mobile phone. There's a lot more SIM cards, but there's three and a half to four billion people on Earth today who have a mobile phone. And that will …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 28:33 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Smartphone components solved IoT hardware before clear consumer use cases
“Generally the way it works is you have this shining vision of the wonderful thing, and the technology doesn't quite live up to it for years and years and years, whereas because all the stuff got made for smartphones first, all the components got made for smart…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:13 a16z Podcast | The Technology is Ready, So Where is the Internet of Things?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Evans: Network effects do not translate to building smartphone hardware
“In a funny sort of sense, it's like you could be too far up the stack to do this, just as you could be too far down the stack to do this. So just as it doesn't really make sense for a mobile operator or a handset maker to try and build a social network, it doe…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:57 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Jan 2, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Smartwatches will require paired smartphones due to battery and space limits
“You need both, and you will continue to need both for the time being because of things like battery life and Space. You can't put a cellular radio and a battery that can power it into something that will fit on your wrist, at least not yet.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:12 a16z Podcast | What the Apple Watch Is -- and Isn't
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Evans: Glancing at a smartwatch is better etiquette than pulling out a phone
“How, but on the other hand, it's better than taking your phone out.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:40 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Apple Watch won't fill a void like smartphones or PCs did
“And so asking, you know, what are the core use cases for this? Slightly misses the point, because it's not the one thing that you will own that fills this void in your life, the way a smartphone did, or a PC did.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:27 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cheney: Mobile devices could become proactive 'first brains' for users
“The phone the watch and these devices, right, it's now an extension of us as a human being. So to some extent we think about this as like it could become the first brain. It could be something that it decides what's going on before you sort of tell it to.”
Steve Cheney Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:08 a16z Podcast | Location, Location, Location -- and Mobile
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Mobile shift expands computing market from 1.5B PCs to 5B smartphones
“We're going through a kind of generational shift from the PC being the dominant computing platform to mobile being the dominant computing platform. And that comes with it a shift from there being about one and a half billion PCs on earth to four or five billio…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:54 a16z Podcast | The Rise of the Quasi-IPO
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Evans predicts global hardware will settle at 4 to 5 billion smartphones
“There's probably two billion smartphones on earth today, maybe two and a half billion, and the great majority of those mobile phones will convert. And so we'll end up with something like one and a half billion PCs and four to five billion smartphones and those…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:52 a16z Podcast | A Copernican Update ... In Tech, the Smartphone is the Center
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans predicts TVs will become secondary display screens controlled by smartphones
“For the vast majority of people, the TV will be done whilst for the smartphone. Rather than, so it won't be a box that's plugged into your TV that runs your whole digital experience.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:06 a16z Podcast | A Copernican Update ... In Tech, the Smartphone is the Center
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Developing world financial inclusion will drive global Bitcoin adoption
“And so there's a very, very big opportunity to use these new technologies, and those include Bitcoin, and those include smartphones, to really up level the capabilities that people have in, in many countries. And I think that's a big part of how Bitcoin will p…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:10 a16z Podcast | Tech's Biggest Ideas and How They Take Hold -- With Marc Andreessen and Dan Siroker
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Evans: Simplified EV manufacturing will lower entry barriers for tech companies
“And so a little bit like what happened with PCs or smartphones 10 years and 20 years ago you move to a point that it may be easier for people who are not in the car business to be in the car business, because the amount of stuff that you have to make, how that…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:48 a16z Podcast | When Software Eats Cars
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Markoff: Steve Jobs was first to commercialize ubiquitous ambient computing
“Steve Jobs was the first guy to get that. You take a microprocessor, and you combine it with a music player, and you've got an iPod. You take a microprocessor, you combine it with a telephone, you've got a smartphone. He was the first guy to really take advant…”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:46 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Benedict Evans: Most mobile internet usage occurs outside web browsers
“The majority of time spent online on a smartphone actually isn't inside the web browser. It's inside Facebook, and it's inside other apps.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:27 a16z Podcast | Advertising vs. Micropayments in the Age of Ad Blockers
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Copeland: Smartphones dwarfed all prior computing platforms in scale
“And then came the mobile phone, which, in the form of the smartphone, has dwarfed them all.”
Michael Copeland Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:14 a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Benedict Evans: Global active smartphones will reach 5 to 6 billion
“Almost all of those will become smartphones in the next couple of years, or well over a billion are now, and so we'll go to two billion smartphones if you add in tablets, maybe two and a half, as opposed to three hundred million PCs, And we'll go to five to si…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:12 a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Insight
Evans: Stable smartphone platforms enable a Cambrian explosion of innovation
“So you've got this kind of Cambrian explosion of innovation on top of the smartphone now that that's become like a relatively solid platform where you kind of know what you're dealing with and all these things have become possible.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:54 a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Samuels: Smartphones touch 250,000 patents while drugs touch only 30-40
“The average smartphone is covered by 250,000 patents. The average drug by 30 or 40 patents.”
Julie Samuels Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:15 a16z Podcast | A Whirlwind Tour of Policy Issues in Tech
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: Smartphones will dominate VR hardware within five years
“On like a five-year view, it seems to me that this is all going to be about smartphones, because just Moore's law will drive this, and the graphics and the sensors will get there”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:40 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: The smartphone is the sun of the tech industry solar system
“The sort of the tech industry is kind of like a solar system and smartphone is the sun and everything else orbits around it.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:46 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Russell: VR will not fill micro-moments of downtime like smartphones do
“What makes mobile devices like smartphones so powerful is it can fill kind of the empty times throughout your day... Whereas, you know, with VR, you're not gonna fill empty time. AR, you know, the case could be made that you could use in that way.”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 33:20 a16z Podcast | Mapping the Future of Virtual Reality
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: Smartphones will eat mass-market virtual reality
“Well, I think the basic story here is smartphones eat VR.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:42 a16z Podcast | Innovation vs. Invention at Google I/O
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Installing a mobile app will lose meaning within five years
“If I was to say I installed an app on my smartphone in five years time, I don't quite know what that word would mean.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:58 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Widgetification of Everything
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Attar: The smartphone is the most important possession refugees carry
“Refugees, the most important object that they have is their smartphone.”
Lena Sergi Attar Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:26 a16z Podcast | Mobility and the Global Refugee Crisis
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Alter: Inactive smartphones on tables diminish conversation quality between strangers
“There's this amazing study showing that if you sit across from someone else, and there's a smartphone on the table, even if it's inert, it's not actually being used. The conversation that you have with that person, if that person is a stranger, will be diminis…”
Adam Alter Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:43 a16z Podcast | Addiction vs Popularity in the Age of Virality
Jan 2, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flannery: Feature phones will soon become hard to buy in emerging markets
“Everyone's getting on smartphones, and it's going to be really hard to buy a feature phone in the coming years.”
Matt Flannery Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:17 a16z Podcast | Fintech for the People
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Drone autonomy will enable third-party software app development
“So longer term, in my view, that, you know, sort of autonomy, knowing the drone will avoid obstacles, be able to do kind of high-level functionality like identify people and objects, will eventually allow software developers to build applications in the same w…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:03 a16z Podcast | The Self-Flying Camera
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Andreessen: Global smartphone adoption will soon reach 6 to 7 billion people
“We're at the point now, three billion smartphones on its way to six, seven billion on the planet. We're going to be able to connect everybody. We're going to be able to get, over time, we're going to be able to get everybody all the things that I went through,…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 41:17 a16z Podcast | Beyond Zero-Sum Thinking in the Game of Tech... and Life
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Chen: Modern consumer apps must steal time from existing products
“Well, because it used to be that you were, you know, what kind of time were you competing for in the first couple of years of the smartphone? You were competing against literally, I'm going to stare at the back of this person's head Or I can, like, use some co…”
Andrew Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:53 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 2 -- Engagement & Retention
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Smartphones have reached the upper slope of the S-curve
“Well, so the way I kind of think about this is we're now kind of on the upper slopes of the S-curve for smartphones. There was a period when, like, the first smartphones were amazing, and then there's a period of very, very rapid improvement, the screens get b…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:06 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCullough: Dot-com era on-demand delivery startups failed because they lacked smartphones
“No one knew at the time you needed smartphones to get the on-demand delivery piece of the puzzle to work, but it's not like people hunkered down and waited.”
Brian McCullough Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:49 a16z Podcast | How the Internet Happened
Apr 1, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: 800M to 900M of Earth's 4B smartphones are iPhones
“There's five and a half billion adults on earth, and four billion or so people have a smartphone, and 809 hundred million of those now are iPhones.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 7:14 a16z Podcast | How Many Taps in the Apple (Plus) Tree?
Dec 19, 2019 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2024
Dixon: Global smartphone users will grow to eight billion
“We've got, what is it, like three to four billion people with smartphones. That's going to go to eight billion.”
Chris Dixon Dec 19, 2019 ▶ 28:28 What's Next for the Internet?
Dec 19, 2019
Insight
Peretti: Portable cheap computers disrupt markets, not fancier phones
“And a fancier phone with bells and whistles isn't disruptive, but a cheap computer that you can take with you everywhere is disruptive.”
Jonah Peretti Dec 19, 2019 ▶ 4:59 What's Next for the Internet?
Sep 25, 2023 negative
Opinion
Smartphones did not significantly boost knowledge worker productivity
“I don't think the smartphone helped much at all just in terms of productivity and knowledge work.”
Kevin Scott Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 7:31 AI Copilots and the Future of Knowledge Work with Microsoft's Kevin Scott
Oct 21, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: More People Globally Have Smartphones Than Electricity or Running Water
“Sitting here today in 2023, the following is true. More people in the world have computers in the form of smartphones specifically and internet access than have electricity or running water in their homes.”
Marc Andreessen Oct 21, 2023 ▶ 17:37 Why It's Time to Be A Techno-Optimist
Jul 16, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Andreessen: GPT-2 scale AI models will run on smartphones within five years
“I think within five years, you're going to have models of this size on your phone.”
Marc Andreessen Jul 16, 2024 ▶ 48:16 Trump Vs. Biden: Tech Policy
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bosworth: Content consumption will move beyond smartphones within 10 years
“10 years, I feel pretty confident that we will have a lot more ways to bring content into our, you know, view shed than just taking out our fun.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 0:31 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Aug 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Noah Smith: Smartphone technology is driving global fertility far below replacement
“Phones have destroyed the human race. Like, the fertility crash that's happening all around the world. Nobody has replacement level fertility. Fertility is going far below replacement everywhere because of technology.”
Noah Smith Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 41:31 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Sep 24, 2025 neutral
Insight
Sinofsky: Distribution is no longer a moat because smartphones are ubiquitous
“Also, to build on your point earlier, like, about distribution, and the reason that distribution is not the advantage that it used to be is because It's already exists on seven billion phones.”
Steven Sinofsky Sep 24, 2025 ▶ 54:31 Software Finally Eats Services - Aaron Levie
Dec 12, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Evans: AI is as big as the internet, but no bigger
“Well, you know, I'm a centrist, so I think this is as big a deal as the internet or smartphones, but only as big a deal as the internet or smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 3:19 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
Dec 12, 2025
Assertion Supported
Evans: Fewer than 1 billion consumer PCs vs 5-6 billion smartphones exist
“So even today, there's less than a billion consumer PCs on earth, and there's something between five and six billion smartphones.”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 7:24 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
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