Gavin Baker

9 statements across 2 episodes · 5 bullish · 3 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Oct 30, 2025 by Gavin Baker · said 3 times in 3 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Gavin Baker's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jen Kha (1), Erik Torenberg (1), David George (1)

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2026 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2025 1 mention in 1 episode

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Everything said about Gavin Baker, oldest first

Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Baker: Artificial intelligence is not currently in a financial bubble
“I do not believe we're in an AI bubble today.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 3:21 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Baker: Debate between humanoid and non-humanoid robots is over
“Is it going to be humanoids or not humanoids? I think that debate is over because humanoids can kind of learn, you know, from watching YouTube videos, and then it's easier for a human being you know, to put on a suit and show the robot how to do it.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 30:37 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Baker: Major custom AI ASIC programs will be canceled within three years
“In the next three years, I think you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 25:10 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 negative
Insight
Baker: Software companies cannot succeed in AI without margin pressure
“It is definitionally impossible, given what we just discussed, to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure, and I do not know why they have concerns, because we have an existence proof that a software company can deal well with declining margins in Microsof…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 16:18 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 neutral
Insight
Baker: Google avoided outcome models because advertisers systematically overpay for ads
“Because people overvalue systematically their ability once they've acquired a customer through Google to keep it as an organic customer. So they systematically overpay. And they continue doing that. That's why Google never went to outcomes or marketplace, beca…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 29:05 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI business models will shift to outcome-based pricing
“Humans were fundamentally paid based on outcomes, and a lot of AI will be augmenting humans, but probably also replacing some humans, and that will involve being paid paid for outcomes.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 27:56 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Baker: Frontier AI lab gross margins will stay structurally below SaaS
“And the nature of AI because of scaling laws, Richard Sutton's the better listen they're just more compute intensive. So their gross margins are structurally going to be lower. But that doesn't mean they can't be great businesses. I just, I think it's going to…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 13:48 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Global robotics market will be Tesla versus China
“Yeah, very real, and it's gonna be Tesla versus the Chinese in the same way it's Tesla versus the Chinese in, in cars.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 30:13 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Aug 31, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Tech Founders Reported No Deteriorating Business Metrics in July and August
“My standard question is, can you tell me one quantitative data point in your business that's getting worse? Just one. That's my standard question, and it's at least in July and August, I haven't been able to find a single person.”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 1:24 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
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