The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,493 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anthropic will die within 12 months if complacent on Claude Code
“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Matt Clifford: The UK Can Return to Being the World's Richest Country
“I think the UK can go back to being pretty much the richest country in the world per capita. I really truly believe that.”
Lemkin: Every venture capital firm has a fraudulent company in its portfolio
“And every VC has a fraud in their portfolio. Every single VC has a fraud in their portfolio.”
Summers: A second Trump term would gravely damage the US economy
“I believe very strongly that by undermining the rule of law, On which contracts exchange and property depend by alienating the rest of the world and by pitting some groups of Americans against other groups of Americans and devaluing the idea of unity and commo…”
Sacca says he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the President of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Franceschetti: AI bots replaced Eight Sleep's email team and generate $100M
“Within three days, she was able to build multiple bots that now run all our email marketing. And so now we have a team of zero and email marketing makes Close to a hundred million.”
Curative Is Cutting 80% Of Its Enterprise SaaS Spend This Year
“We're cutting about 80% of our SaaS spend this year.”
Weitzman: AI Token Budgets Will Outpace Engineering Salaries Within Three Years
“We'll get there in three years. Yeah. You just need to be like a really strong early adopter.”
Jake Paul Claims He Is Uncancellable Because He Has Done Nothing Bad
“That's the thing is I'm uncancellable because like no one will ever find or see anything about me that is actually bad. And it's all just like fake hate.”
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Zinman: Enterprise spending on software will grow 100x
“The time of software, how much companies are going to spend on software is going to be a hundred X for what it is today.”
Siemiatkowski: AI enterprise compression could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA chips
“Well, that would mean that you would leave mean significant, you would need significantly less.”
Lemkin: Non-engineering software categories face existential seat shrinking
“Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats.”
Chang predicts Fuse Energy will eventually become bigger than Shell
“I think we could be bigger than Shell.”
Surge AI CEO: 2,000 human data points beat 10 million synthetic ones
“A lot of them tell us that even a thousand or a couple of thousand pieces of really high quality human data that we generated for them, it's actually been worth more than ten million pieces of synthetic data.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to adapt to AI will be poor or burdens on society
“Seriously, if you're not going to take the time to make yourself valuable, to embrace reality, you're doomed. I'm not going to help you. If you don't want to do this, you're either going to be poor or a burden on society.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to self-upgrade in the AI era are done
“But if not, fuck you. You're done. You're done. You're not done at Fiverr. You're done. Period. Because no one, there's not going to be demand for people that cannot upgrade themselves.”
Lemkin: A Top VC Firm Will Give Sam Bankman-Fried $100M
“I don't think Rory or I would, I'll defer to Rory, but I think someone will fund him. He's smart as Rory, Rory said, like he showed the upside as well as the downside. I don't know if there's a lot of morality in the business. I think someone will give them ju…”
Scott: AI scaling laws have not hit a limit yet
“I can very clearly see what we're doing now and like what we're doing next. And I don't see the limit to the scaling laws. Like if you're just sort of thinking about the raw capability of the models and like how well you can condition them to reason over incre…”
Krieger: DeepSeek release had almost no impact on Anthropic's go-to-market
“I got this question a bunch with deep seek when deep seek came out, like, all right, what does deep seek mean for you? And I think there's things that we learned from on the tech side, just looking at what they were doing, but from a go to market and place in …”
Ramaswamy: ChatGPT Users Will Not Switch to DeepSeek
“You're not going to switch from ChatGPT to DeepSeq. It's a product. It's not a model.”
Hoffman: Trump abused state power for personal gain in first term
“Even in the first administration, there was the, there were some abuses of instruments of state for personal gain, for personal power. And that is, I think anti the spirit of anything in democracy, anti the spirit of anything in American.”
Grimm predicts Israel will achieve near and total conquering of Gaza
“I think what we end up seeing is we end up seeing the, ah, ultimately kind of the near and total sort of conquering of Gaza,”
McCabe: Very few tech industry figures are not voting for Trump
“And that's why everyone I talk to, it's very few people I talk to in technology who are not voting Trump at the moment. Very, very few. There are some people who are either triggered by Trump or they're they don't actually study a lot of these topics, but most…”
Shaun Maguire: Equal outcome equity is communism and will destroy the West
“And the definition of equity Or like the widely accepted definition is, is not creating equal opportunities. It's to have equal outcomes. That is insane. Like the idea that, that like, no matter what someone's work ethic is, or no matter like what their talent…”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will eventually look like a third-world region
“Western Europe is going to look like a third world.”
Sam Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups built on static model assumptions
“It would seem to me that 95% of the world should be betting on the latter category, but a lot of the startups have been built in the former category. When we just do our fundamental job, we're going to steamroll you.”
Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups building static software wrappers
“When we just do our fundamental job because we, like, have a mission, we're going to steamroll you.”
Lonsdale: Israel Will Keep Fighting and Completely Wipe Out Hamas
“The way it stands now is, is we're going to keep fighting. We're going to wipe out Hamas and hopefully we can work with others to have a government there. That's not, you know, does not allow terrorism.”
Lonsdale: Anti-Israel Hatred in Gaza Stems From School Indoctrination
“I think basically what creates a generation of civilians that hate Israel is you have the schools in that area have been run by people who teach people that Jews are pigs and Jews are wrong and our religion hates Jews.”
Petersen: Remote US workers will lose jobs to offshore talent arbitrage
“By the way, I think remote work can really work, but it's not going to benefit the people who think like, it's not going to be people making 250,000 dollars a year hanging out in Jackson Hole. It's going to be geniuses in the developing world Making, you know,…”
Huber: Wealth redistribution would revert to 80/20 inequality within five years
“You could take all the money in the United States right now. You take all the money and you could divide it equally among everybody. Take all the money and divide it equally. And in five, 10, 15 years, you could argue about the timeframe. In five years, at lea…”
Huber: Poorest Americans today live better than wealthiest Americans 50 years ago
“Today the poorest people in America have a better life than the wealthiest people in America 50 years ago. They have better access to healthcare. They have better living situations. They have more amenities. They have better food. It trickles down massively, a…”
Ackman: Biden wealth tax will bankrupt every startup in America
“You know, the Biden wealth tax, which is like, 25% of the appreciation of things that you own privately, it's going to bankrupt every startup. No one will ever start a business in America anymore, right?”
BPI asked Ophelia Brown where her older male partner was
“The French, what's the French equivalent of EIF? BPI. BPI. They asked me where my older male partner was.”
Emil Michael predicts Benchmark's fixed $435M fund model will fail
“That's why I think Benchmark ultimately is going to, is, has no innovation. Forget the reputation, which most entrepreneurs, if they do their deals, will find out about, but just not innovating stuck at four hundred thirty-five million for the next 10 years is…”
Khosla: OpenAI's AGI Could Eliminate the Need for Human Work
“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep engineers stopped writing code a year ago
“Well, our engineers stopped coding around a year ago, so since then they didn't code.”
Franceschetti predicts Eight Sleep will hit $1B revenue with 250 people in three years
“Two 50 people making a billion.”
Lemkin: VCs will increasingly offer bad deal structures to win competitive rounds
“We will see deal structures that are objectively bad for the company done more and more often to win deals, whatever it takes.”
Greze predicts users will trust AI agents to autonomously share personal data
“I think you'll trust your agent to decide what data to share with other people without you intervening in five years.”
Greze: LLMs will replace human security teams in classifying and gating data
“As opposed to having humans in your compliance and security team over time, label data and decide what goes where and what can be accessed. I think we'll just start to trust LLMs to do that.”
Weitzman says GPU analysis helped identify and solve his father's prostate cancer
“It's already solved my dad's prostate cancer, because I figured out with a bunch of help from other people how to use GPUs to identify where in his body the lesion was.”
Most European Point-Solution Startups Will Fail in the US Market
“And that's why your European startups, most of them are going to fail at least in the U S because they can't do much more with more, right? They're going to fail. Their little point solutions are just going to disappear in six months. We don't need those littl…”
Reyes: Model training and self-improvement will not stay exclusive to frontier labs
“And so I think that right now the, there's like a couple of companies that claim that, like, recursive self-improvement and model training will be only their domain. And I think in reality, many businesses will have access to that technology via software servi…”