The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 974 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Agentic AI products have not yet inflected software revenues
“The evidence, you can't argue with the fact that the agentic products have not inflected revenue.”
Oren Zeev: Over 50% of VC funds will fail to raise again
“At least 50% of the funds today, and maybe more, either cannot raise, or at least are not sure that they can raise, or they're trying to stall and, you know, not test the market, and I think many of them are not gonna be able to raise.”
O'Driscoll: At a $32B valuation, Ramp must succeed via IPO
“You ain't going to get the M&A outcome anymore. You've just got to be the big company and trade in the public markets at a significantly higher multiple than the other financial services companies.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will eventually become a cash-flow profitable business
“Fundamentally, however, I don't doubt the fact that a profitable, and defined by that as free cash flow, operating income business, will emerge from something like, I mean, Atropic's not going to not have a profitable business model because this clearly is con…”
Lemkin: AI startups must model inference costs rising in 2026
“You need to model in your inference costs are going up this year, not down.”
O'Driscoll: AI CapEx spend won't pull back in the next 12-24 months
“So I think it's highly unlikely that you know, this is not going to be the year when people get terrified and say, I'm not going to do it. At some point, I think they will, because I think we probably are over-investing at some level, but right now, people are…”
Lemkin: Open Evidence will raise at $30B-$40B valuation next year
“Open Evidence will probably do a round at 30 or 40 next year. I'm actually going to suggest that Thrive is very smart. And they've probably done the math and this is the right insertion point for them. And they believe in it. And someone else is going to do it…”
O'Driscoll: Excess capital will erode venture capital returns
“I don't think in either case they benefit from excess capital because I do believe that, you know, Martin Biggs, I've said it before, there's no investing business so good that excess capital won't ruin it, right? And I do think that excess capital will make t…”
Junestrand: AI will lead to fewer junior lawyer and trainee roles
“I do think that there will Probably be less junior lawyers and trainees, but, because I think that you just won't need as many people to execute the work that the firm has.”
Junestrand: Mid-sized law firms will struggle while big and small law thrive
“I think big law will do really well because they have a lot of moats and a lot of brand and a lot of data. I think small law can do really well because that's still operating on a very, very personal basis. I think where it might get difficult is mid law, wher…”
Junestrand: More software engineers will be writing code in two years
“You'll have more people writing code and doing things or starting new things and projects and things in two years than you have today.”
Stebbings: Most knowledge workers will use 24/7 background AI inference by 2026
“I think one thing that we're going to see in 2026 that no one's talking about is 24 seven inference that everyone is going to have inference running all the time, not just on input into chat GPT, but consistently for the majority of people, especially in knowl…”
O'Driscoll: California's proposed tax will drive wealthy founders out of state
“So are you going to sit in California? If you're worth two billion dollars and say to yourself, I'm going to give a billion dollars for the privilege of living here. I don't think so. You're going to leave. So I think it's going to be fairly pernicious to what…”
Lemkin: B2B SaaS will normalize around $1M-$2M revenue per employee
“I think for, even for B to B grounded in what we do, I think we're going to normalize around a million dollars to two million dollars per employee.”
Lemkin: Nvidia will likely deprecate Groq's product line post-acquisition
“One, they could do, they could just deprecate the entire product line and do something brand new. They probably will.”
O'Driscoll: Groq acquisition won't yield more than two major semiconductor outcomes
“I don't think there's going to be 10 more semis. There might be two.”
Lemkin: Tech startups below Figma's caliber will struggle to IPO
“If you're not Figma or better, it's going to be rough out there. And that all these VCs are saying you can IPO at a hundred million and the IPO, the Vaughn says no to me. It says it's just barely cracked opened.”
Chang: Fuse Energy grew revenue from £2M to £200M in three years
“We increase our revenue with Tenex every year since inception. First year was two million pounds, second year was 20, and then this year we're gonna end at over 200 pounds.”
Chang predicts Revolut will become a trillion-dollar company
“I think of a trillion dollar company.”
Lemkin: Three of today's top six B2B stocks will retain 2026 leadership
“My Pekumumusukus, Pekumumusukus, Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, I'll bet you 10 grand, three of them are in the top six of this cohort at the end of next year.”
Lemkin: Custom chip competition will not threaten Nvidia's dominance in 2026
“You're a fool to invest against Nvidia for 2026. And I think you are arguably a fool to invest into Amazon in 20, 26 for a simple reason. Just a simple, I didn't say 20, 27 or 20, 28. It is not enough time for all this competition to come online. It is not eno…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will likely IPO in 2026, but Stripe will not
“I think Stripe, least likely, take it off the table. My gut would be Antropic gets it done.”
Jason Calacanis: Cursor will maim Figma and SaaS incumbents by lowering NRR
“I think the bigger risk for so many vendors is that it maims Figma... HubSpot and box and even anthropic using it, they don't leave, they renew, they don't buy as many seats, right? Because the team is also using cursor, but of course they don't churn. The log…”
Most AI value creation will happen in private markets, not public
“And if you look at what's happening in the private versus public markets now, the size of the winners from a new tech wave, that's going to happen in the private markets.”
Foundation model API providers will eventually operate as a high-margin oligopoly
“I think the market structure will end up sort of like cloud for the models where, you know, cloud costs for the average end customer are fine. And, you know, cloud's an oligopoly and they make high profits. I think the model companies, you know, that serve API…”
Wiz's marketing team stopped growing headcount because AI 50x'd designer output
“I don't need to grow anymore in people. Cause like what the designer can do now, one designer can do 10 X more output, if not 50 X more output.”
Lemkin: Anthropic will go public at a $500 billion valuation
“20 X times 26 is five 20. I'm gonna guess five hundred billion IPO, right?”
Stebbings: Multi-Billion Mega Seed Rounds Include Undisclosed Cheaper Tranches
“The one lesson that I've learned from a lot of these deals, whether it's Thinking Machines or this or some others, is that although it's 500 or five billion on the sticker price when it's announced, there's actually several rounds before that Sequoia and Andre…”
O'Driscoll: High fixed costs will consolidate foundation LLM providers to three or four
“As the cost to enter gets higher, the fixed cost barriers, there's not, I don't know if there's going to be 10 of these. There might be three or four, but there's not, I doubt there'll be 10.”
O'Driscoll: Startups will decouple engineering teams from China over regulatory risk
“So I think you're just going to see a gradual separation. You'll just examine the risks and go, why would I, you know, yeah, I can get great engineers. I can save 20, 30%. But in return, I get embroiled in arguments on Twitter, but more importantly, I probably…”
Mansour: Kalshi is currently profitable
“We are at a point right now where, so we're growing incredibly fast. We are also profitable right now.”
O'Driscoll: AI Startups Must Shift to Value Pricing Within Two Years
“A year, two years from now, you're going to have to link as a startup. Your pricing to the value delivered and you're going to have to measure.”
O'Driscoll: Wealthfront Will Become a Compounding Machine Like Charles Schwab
“Over the next 10 or 15 years, that generation is going to get rich. They're going to get rich with Wealthfront. They're going to keep their money there. And it's going to be a compounding machine, just like Charlie Schwab was a compounding machine”
Shlomo: AI foundation model prices will drop toward zero
“We're taking into consideration that the prices of model will go down towards zero.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable achieve over 50% gross margins using cheap models
“Replit and Lovable, frankly, are using cheap models. Most people don't know or care, and they're well marked up. The margins are north of 50, the gross margins, okay?”
Lemkin: 100% chance the US venture market hits $500B by 2030
“A hundred percent chance. So maybe more than a hundred.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's IPO will be delayed until mid-2027 as Altman secures alternative financing
“I think that's a good idea. I think Sam will come up with so much alternative financing. It'll slip into mid 27, but I think that's the straw man today would be my guess. Like that's the plan, but there'll be so much, so many other sources of maybe the governm…”
O'Driscoll: Palantir and AI CapEx Will Face a Major Correction Within Two Years
“I think, Michael, it's very hard to imagine a company trading north of a 110, 120 times revenues like Palantir, growing at 50 or 60% last quarter. Great. Amazing quarter. Kicking off cash. It's very hard not to imagine the next two years that doesn't have a si…”
Lemkin: Tech Companies Will Never Return to 2020-2021 Staffing Ratios
“I think we're going to see a lot of these folks, you know, adding revenue teams, adding sales teams, adding marketers, never at the ratio of 20, 21. We'll never see those levels of staffing of humans”
Lemkin: The NASDAQ Will Outperform Most Venture Capital Funds
“Just put the rest into NASDAQ, and you're gonna make more than most VC funds anyway”
Randle: Code generation market will add $4B to $5B ARR this year
“Instead of adding, you know, a billion dollars of net new this year, I think code generation is going to add, I don't know, four or five billion dollars of net new across every single product and service that's available for people to buy, both on the B to B a…”
O'Driscoll: Sports leagues, not political administrations, will drive prediction market regulation
“Just to make a prediction and which is in theme in keeping with the idea here. I predict that any re-regulation won't happen because of any new administration. I think the real challenge to sports betting like this will actually be the leagues themselves wrest…”
Lemkin: OpenAI will be the most popular retail IPO in history
“I just can't think of a retail IPO that would be more popular than open AI, right? Just bringing everyone out of the woodwork to put a little bit of their life savings to do it, to ignore the, even if the valuation makes no sense. I just, this would have to be…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will reach a $1 trillion valuation in two years
“On the current trajectory, maybe all I can answer is on the current trajectory and without the euphoria Jason mentioned, it's probably two years because, you know, you do get some attenuation of growth at scale and, you know, at the current thing that, I mean,…”
Stebbings: Top VC firms force LPs into 2:1 fund stapling requirement
“If you're an LP and you want to be in the early stage fund, you will often, very often with top tier brands, have to put in two times that into another fund to get that one dollar in the other, and you don't get your pick of which fund. Very often you have to …”