The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 974 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Seibert predicts runaway climate change is less than ten years away
“Runaway climate change is less than 10 years out.”
Gap Between TVPI and DPI Will Be Largest in Venture History
“The chasm between TVPI and DPI will be the biggest in venture history.”
Lanng: Copyright Issues Will Not Severely Impede AI Model Training
“I think the copyright issues are trending in a direction where I don't think it's going to be a major problem. I mean, fair use, I think, is, is, is, is covering this fairly well”
Lemkin: Inexperienced first-time fund managers will never raise $50M again
“Emerging managers are delusional about how hard it is to raise a fund one with no track record. Like what you could do in 20, 21 is as unprecedented in the history of the industry where someone with some Twitter followers and never having a record could raise …”
Salesforce Will Lose Its Top CRM Market Position Within 10 Years
“So I would say I am bearish on Salesforce ability to stay number one over the next decade.”
Douwe Kiela: AI will displace the majority human workforce within 5-10 years
“If you look at how OpenAI and Anthropic and these places define AGI, it's as systems achieving capabilities that allow them to effectively do the work of humans for the majority of economically valuable human tasks. Then we're not that far away from it. And so…”
A New AI Paradigm Will Displace Notion and Google Docs
“It probably something will come and destroy Notion and Google Docs and all of them with a totally new paradigm that is made possible by AI, and certainly these incumbents won't do it.”
Expert: Proprietary LLMs will fall behind open-source models
“The scenario I think will happen, and I'm certainly rooting for, is the scenario I described earlier, where you have some sort of open platform for base LLMs. So base LLMs basically would be seen as a basic infrastructure. TCP, IP, Linux, Apache, completely op…”
Stebbings: $2 billion venture funds will fail to hit 3x returns
“Trust me, you ain't shooting three X on that two billion dollar fund.”
LeCun: Public will reject proprietary AI and demand open-source infrastructure
“They would be so pervasive, so much will ride on, on those systems that I don't think anyone will accept that those assistant being behind Event Horizon in a private company, they will insist that the infrastructure is open.”
LeCun: Proprietary AI models will fall behind open-source models
“So I think the proprietary approaches will actually fall behind.”
Carney: Achieving Net Zero Requires Growing Nuclear Power 50% by 2050
“There's no net zero without nuclear power. A lot of people don't like to think about nuclear and think that there's an easy right to shut it down, but in fact we have to grow it by another 50% between now and twenty-fifty worldwide.”
Coates: Shopify competes directly with Amazon today
“Well, I mean, Shafak meets with Amazon today. Oh, absolutely. Hundred percent. Hundred percent.”
Lemkin: Boom-era micro-funds are already decimated and don't know it yet
“I think they're going to be decimated. I think they already are decimated and they don't know it.”
Lemkin: 50 active startup founders will raise nine-figure venture funds
“There's too many founders that are going to raise nine-figure funds, While they're running their own startups, and it used to be a bad sign for the startup. How could you do anything other than run your own startup? But it doesn't matter what you and I think, …”
Salur: 10-minute grocery delivery will exist wherever pizza delivery exists by 2031
“But in the long run, let me tell you this, Harry. The long run, if there's pizza delivery in any small town, there'll be a service like Getir, whether Getir will be there or something similar, will be there. Next five to 10 years, everywhere there's pizza deli…”
Nubank Will Eventually Become the Largest Bank in the World
“Nubank is not only the largest challenger bank in the world. We think one day it could become the largest bank without the challenger. They will become an incumbent bank, the number one in the world”
Palihapitiya predicts venture capital returns will decay to single-digit IRRs globally
“The thing that I think people need to realize is as that happens, returns will decay. And it happens in every market when you expand. So real estate used to generate 30% IRRs. Now they generate high single digit IRRs. But the asset class and the category is a …”
Hampton Creek will suffer a massive down round
“From tech VC firms, and we're seeing, you know, the mayonnaise company with a nine hundred million dollar valuation and fifteen million dollars revenue. That math doesn't make any sense. It's offensive. They're not going to have a successful exit. They will ha…”
Garg: Crypto companies will eventually recentralize in Silicon Valley
“So what I would expect will happen is actually, over time, crypto companies will actually recentralize in large part to Silicon Valley.”
Bannon: Animal agriculture will be completely eliminated within 100 years
“I believe that animal agriculture will be eliminated from the face of the earth within the next hundred years.”
Naval Ravikant: Drones will replace every weapon system on the planet
“I think drones are going to replace every single weapon system on the planet. They're going to replace Everything from aircraft carriers to airplanes, to infantrymen, soldiers. Once drones get small enough and effective enough, no other form of character will …”
O'Driscoll alleges Poolside effectively cashed out via Nvidia product license
“A few weeks ago, Poolside effectively didn't, they would deny that they sold, but they sold a license for their product to NVIDIA, which was an open weight enterprise US focused model, and they, you know, the company still exists, but they cashed out quite a l…”
Weitzman: Buying Rubin GPUs yields one year advantage over cloud renters
“If I want a Reuben, which is like these much faster GPUs, I'll get it faster if I buy it than if I wait for Google to buy it, and then there's other people in front of me in line. So I'm gonna skip the queue by like a lot, and then I'm gonna have like a year o…”
Weitzman: Speechify holds 98% of B2C text-to-speech App Store installs
“The first one is if you go to the App Store and you search text-to-speech, Speechify has 98% of the installs in text-to-speech for B to C.”
Stebbings: 30 to 40 startups have raised $100M to $300M seed rounds
“I mean, there's 30, 40 companies that at seed have raised a hundred to three hundred million.”
O'Driscoll: Probability of Nvidia Missing Near-Term Earnings Is Zero
“The demand for their product is such that they're entirely supply constrained, so the probability of a near-end miss is plus or minus zero, right?”
Katz: ClickHouse will surpass $1B in ARR before December 2027
“Well, I'd put the over under at December, 20, 27. And I would take the under.”
Reyes: Nvidia will likely hit a $10 trillion market cap within three years
“I think that there's a real serious chance that if we let SpaceX Be worth two or three trillion, then NVIDIA probably is worth 10. And so I think that the answer's likely yes.”
Stebbings Predicts Largest AI Data Providers Will Reach $200B
“I think your largest data providers will be two hundred billion dollar companies.”
Bek: Next trillion-dollar company will be software masquerading as services
“So the prediction was that the next trillion dollar company will be a software company that masquerades as a service business. It's very important the masquerading because they cannot be a service company.”
Continuous Learning Models Will Obsolete Current AI Models Within Ten Years
“First of all, within 10 years, I believe we, and I think some people are thinking two or three years, continuous learning models will come into existence. That means that every generation of every model we have today Dies, goes away.”
Lemkin: >51% chance OpenRouter drives 20-30% of Stripe's revenue in 5 years
“I think it'll be like the scale acquisition. It will be the start of something that gets bigger, whether this brand exists or whether even this product exists five years. I don't even think this product will exist in five years, but I think it will be, I think…”
Uber president's biggest fear is ChatGPT routing rides purely by price
“I just interviewed the president of Uber. What is his single biggest fear? It's actually the disaggregation of UI or the removal of UI where you say, I want a car, and ChatGPT automatically routes you to Lyft, Uber or another provider based on price.”
Stebbings: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Reach $1 Trillion to $2 Trillion Valuations
“Both will be trillion dollar plus, potentially close to two trillion.”
Frankel: Photonic Computing Will Disrupt or Be Acquired by Nvidia Within a Decade
“In my view, if you say in 10 years time, and I am not a thematic investor, but I am such a deep believer in
The status quo being changed always, and not, and like nothing stays the same.
I think photonic computing is coming down the line, and I think that's go…”
Arora: Open-source models will automate offensive cyberattacks within months
“I think in two, three months from now, open source have distilled all these capabilities, and we'll find open source models out there, which you can find to you if you're an attacker, to actually do this on a task basis.”
Angelopoulos: US Likely to Restrict Chinese Open AI Models Within Three Years
“Yeah, my guess my guess would be that we will. I, I'm not saying I support it, but I think that it is likely where the world is headed. If I had to like place a bet, it would be there, but I think it's very uncertain at the moment.”
Angelopoulos: AI data market will reach $100B to $1T by 2030
“I believe it's going to be at least a hundred billion dollars by 2030, if not a trillion.”
Angelopoulos: Nvidia is probably leading the race to a $10T valuation
“I think it's hard to say not NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA is probably in the lead there.”
Angelopoulos: Enterprise AI adoption will 10X Nvidia reliably
“But I think the enterprise adoption of AI is going to be another 10 Xer for the industry. I think it'll 10 X NVIDIA very reliably.”
Park: Synthetic panels will become larger than the human panel market
“The way I see it, synthetic panels will be larger than our, what we know to be the current human panel market, in part because this can really raise the ceiling of the kind of questions we can answer.”
Lemkin: US will ban Chinese AI models just like DJI drones
“If those drones are banned, this is just my bet. I'm betting that the Chinese models are getting banned too. It's, I think if the drones are banned, this one's easier to ban.”