The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,077 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Epic Systems Spent Millions Lobbying to Block US EHR Interoperability Laws
“Epic spent billions to millions to try to block, but it finally was after, I think, 20 years of battle was passed”
Kohli: A tech startup M&A acquisition spree will not happen
“The appetite to Just do rapid set of acquisitions in this market. I don't think it's going to happen. And then in the private markets the key question that's going to come up is what price do you believe? Right? Meaning if you're a private company and you've r…”
Braun: Jeff Bezos Created More Jobs During COVID Than Anyone Else
“Jeff Bezos created more jobs in COVID than any human being on the planet.”
One-third of Basecamp employees quit within two weeks of political talk ban
“Ultimately about a third of the company quit in a matter of is it a week or two.”
Singerman predicts Founders Fund's $200M Anduril check will turn into $2B
“Enduro is going to be an extremely valuable company. I am, there's, yes, quite sure of that. We are not going to lose that two hundred million dollar check. That two hundred million dollars will turn into, you know, two billion.”
Steve Jobs told Dropbox it was 'a feature, not a product' in 2009
“He was like, well, you guys are a feature, not a product. And now we're gonna have to like compete with you and kill you and you don't have distribution and dah, dah, dah, dah, dah.”
Monte Carlo reached $1B valuation and 80 GTM employees without HR
“One funny thing about Monte Carlo is we managed to get to like a billion plus valuation. We managed to get to an 80 person go to market team, and we still hadn't hired a recruiter or a head of HR.”
Fadell: Remote employees lacking face time will be fired first during downturns
“Two in, especially now in a financial disaster that we have on our hands, who's going to be the first one to get fired? The ones who don't come into work are the ones who do come into work and have some face time and show value beyond just coming to a meeting.”
Fadell: iPod's original strategy was driving Mac sales, which failed
“We're going to sell the iPod. It's going to be so awesome that people will buy Macs so they could use their iPod. We're going to sell more Macs because they're going to need to buy one to use an iPod that they're going to have to have. Well, guess what? The fi…”
Whatnot Operates Without Product Managers, Jira, or Ticketing Systems
“Because we're in a world where we basically don't have PMs, there's so many decisions and bits of ownership that engineering is required to take control of. We don't have JIRA. No one writes tickets.”
Ehrenberg: Tiger Global and Coatue face horrific portfolio markdowns ahead
“You know, their mark to market now, the next couple of years is going to be horrific. They're going to see huge markdowns on a huge swath of their companies, a bunch of stuff that they had counted on to go public isn't going to go public.”
Harry Stebbings predicts the quick commerce market will become a graveyard
“I don't think it's going to be like a As many winners as you think it is, I think it's going to be a bit of a graveyard.”
Cyan Banister: High taxes and safety issues drive tech exodus from California
“There's a reason startups aren't staying. There's a reason that people are fleeing. That's because of San Francisco and frankly, all of California, you can only tax people so much. And then eventually they're just like, gosh, every dollar I'm making, I take ho…”
Venture Funds With Over Seven Partners See Returns Plummet
“I don't think venture firms scale at all at headcount. One of the biggest things I've learned in the last 25 years is that team size is essential between two and five partners max. If you get to seven, you're at your limit. If you had more than seven partners,…”
Cuban refuses to invest in venture-backed companies that buy market share
“The type of investments I won't do or don't do is ones where companies buy sales. So this is going to be a company that has to raise five hundred million to do one hundred million in sales because they want to own market share. And then they can get an exit be…”
Marks: A period of market distress will occur by 2025
“The bull market is 11 years old. If there's not one in the next five years, that means we'll have gone 16, which would be a record by a wide margin. So my guess is that in the next five years, we'll have a period of distress, and my hope is that Oak Tree will …”
Messerschmidt: Women hold just 9% of equity value in tech companies
“Women make up roughly 33% of the workforce of tech companies, yet they hold just nine percent of the equity value. Men hold the other 91%.”
Midha: In five years, most people will spend their time offline
“I believe that most people five years from now will spend the bulk of their time offline, not online.”
Meir in 2019: Tesla will become a $1 trillion company
“I believe that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company.”
Startup fundraising will shift to crypto tokens within 10 years
“I actually think in 10 years, some of the craziness will level out. And maybe it's not on Bitcoin, but maybe it's on another token or so, that you will see fundraisers done differently in 10 years.”
Retail investors will lose a ton of money in ICOs
“So they scare me. I think there's going to be some really great ones, but I think people are going to lose a ton of money, like, and just everyday people. Whenever there's so much money going around, and people think they can make a quick buck, and there's a l…”
Allbirds Co-Founder: Amazon Profits Off Knockoffs Targeting Allbirds Search Terms
“If you look at how Amazon does, even when you're not selling on their channel, enough people have typed in all birds on amazon.com such that there is a lot of knockoffs and other, perhaps you would call it similar looking products. That are now sold through Am…”
Esports will draw a larger global audience than the NFL by 2022
“I do. Based on the underlying data today and how accessible it is to people, I do believe it will be larger, certainly, than the NFL.”
Schuler: Up to 50% of tech IPOs will be flat or down
“So you'll see, I think, flat and down IPO rounds. Maybe up to 50% of the companies that are out there.”
Kevin Rose: GV deployed its entire $254M annual fund into Uber
“I definitely know that largest GVs ever done is Uber, where it was two hundred and fifty four million, I believe. So it was our entire fund into one of their rounds.”
Pompliano: Historical data shows check size and follow-on decisions don't drive returns
“The only thing that correlates to outsized returns across different economic boom and bust cycles is being early in the best deals, right? So check size doesn't matter. Follow-on decision-making doesn't matter.”
Uretsky: Apple will never match iPhone scale with another product category
“So when I read online about, you know, all of these different pundits talking about, you know, what's Apple's next big thing, my answer is there isn't one, because it has nothing to do with Apple. It has to do with the market. If you can't Find another thing t…”
Former Yahoo executive Marvin Liao predicts the company is 'toast'
“If I'm honest, I think they're probably toast. It's a one point O company in a three point O world. I just, I'm very skeptical. And this isn't anything against Marissa, but I just think it's just, it was such a mess when I left and I probably take some credit …”
Stebbings: Index dropped Town deal after portfolio company Instinct objected
“There was a conflict in venture that has now prevented a deal.
We've spoken about instinct being the AI assistant that's raised from index and benchmark.
Well, there's another AI assistant called town, which we just had on the show and index.
Were going to …”
Stebbings: Instinct raised at a $2.5 billion valuation without monetization
“Instinct raised at two and a half billion dollars with no monetization.”
Weitzman: Sierra relies on third-party models and Bret Taylor's go-to-market
“Sierra doesn't have their own model team. They use other people's models, right? Because the value of Sierra is the go to market. It's Brett Taylor.”
Salesforce Agreed to Shift Its LLM Spending to Anthropic
“Dario is showing up because Mark agreed to move Salesforce agreed to move
Their LLM spend to Anthropic.”
Stebbings: Cursor just sold for $60 billion after only four years
“Cursor just sold for sixty billion dollars after four years.”
Stebbings: OpenAI CFO told employees the company will IPO in 2027
“CFO Sarah Fryer told employees at OpenAI, we will be a public company in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Bek: Cloudflare projects agent traffic will exceed human traffic 1,000x in 5 years
“I think it was Cloudflare this morning said that in five years from now, we'll have 1000 times the amount of agent traffic to human traffic.”
Stebbings: Silver Lake Prepares $43B Take-Private Bid for Workday
“Silver Lake circles a forty three billion dollar take private bid for Workday.”
Uber Burned $52 Million Weekly on Subsidies Before Exiting China
“I remember the last few weeks in the negotiation, we were burning fifty two million a week in China, just on price subsidies, because there was this heated behind the scenes battle happening
To get to the best economics and the ultimate sort of surrender or u…”
Datadog's largest customer, OpenAI, slashed its $150 million software spend
“Datadog's story was just, everything's amazing, but our biggest customer, and everybody knows it's OpenAI and know what it says, right, is suddenly realized they maybe don't need to spend a hundred and fifty million dollars and they're spending less.”
Atallah: Google's Jeff Dean is starting an AI agent lab
“Jeff Dean is starting an agent lab right now from Google.”
Frankel: Post-2020 mega funds boast high TVPI but lag on DPI
“Subsequent to twenty-twenty, like the TVPI is there, and some, in some cases, they're on steroids. The DPI is less there, if you look at the actual stats.”
Frankel: Fund of Funds Are Liquidating Entire Billion-Dollar Portfolios via Secondaries
“By the way, we've seen fund of funds do secondaries of their entire fund, So we go, oh my god, you're in fund two, or you're in fund four, like, you should never sell, right? Like, this is what's, and it's like, it's not about you, right? Like, you're a roundi…”
Angelopoulos: Kimi K3 Beat Top US Closed Models in Web Development
“And for the first time ever, we saw a couple of weeks ago that Kimi K three actually beat the best closed source American models on a, you know, pretty important subset of tasks, for example, front end coding, like web development, which a huge fraction of dev…”
Angelopoulos: Most global AI inference spend remains on proprietary first-party APIs
“If you look at the whole space of all inference, most of it is still being consumed on first party APIs and on proprietary models. That's why anthropic revenue has been just a total hockey stick. It's not, you know, it's not like they're being completely canni…”
Stebbings: AI data providers Handshake, Mercor, and Surge each surpass $1B revenue
“There's so many providers at a billion dollars plus in revenue. Handshake's over a billion. McCaw's over a billion. Serge is over a billion.”
Angelopoulos: Arena has 30M+ monthly visitors, bigger than Hugging Face and xAI
“People don't know this, but Arena's one of the largest consumer AI apps in the world. We're bigger than, like, XAI. We're bigger than, like, Hugging Face, and Manus, and GenSpark, where it's so massive, like if you, like outside in, it's like 30 plus million m…”
Park: Simile models predict human behavior with 85% accuracy
“We show that we can actually predict people's behaviors and attitudes 85% as accurately as people replicate their own.”
O'Driscoll: Sandboxed OpenAI test model escaped to query Hugging Face
“OpenAI was training a next generation model and managing cyber and discovering and checking out cyber vulnerabilities. They had sandboxed it in such that the only access externally it has was to one website to just to get kind of Patch of information updates, …”
O'Driscoll: Hugging Face defended against OpenAI probe using Chinese models
“The Chinese open source, open rate models were available, and I think they use Kimi or Kuan or one of the newest models to help them figure out what happened, right? So they were able to defend themselves using an open source model, and then they do this blog …”