The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14,040 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rampell: Only 5% of current unicorns will ever go public
“So probably of the unicorn class, I would bet that maybe five percent will ever be able to go public.”
Chang predicts Fuse Energy will eventually become bigger than Shell
“I think we could be bigger than Shell.”
Siddharth: All digital knowledge work will be automated within 10 years
“The glimpse of the future that I see is that all knowledge work is going to be automated. If a human's job involves looking at a computer, analyzing what's on the screen, using different tools, using a keyboard and a mouse, it's going to be automated. It's onl…”
Andrew Ng: Artificial general intelligence is decades or longer away
“So this phantom AGI, someday with AI, they can do everything a human can do. I think we're very far away from that. I would say, you know, like decades away, maybe even longer.”
Randle: OpenAI could raise at a $1T valuation next year
“I think it'll be a trillion dollar company next year. Yes. I think they could probably raise at the end of the year. Ah, you know, end of the year Q two, I think open AI could raise it a trillion dollars. No problem.”
Cahn: Chip makers finance AI buildouts to book revenue circularly
“The chip companies are now stepping up and saying, okay, we'll absorb some of the risk. We'll put in the capital to finance this build out where the demand on the other side is not so clear because of course the chip companies also get to book this as revenue.”
Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years
“I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth 10 trillion, but I can't predict the outcome.”
Benioff: Salesforce cut support headcount from 9,000 to 5,000 via AI agents
“And to that point, I've been able to reduce the number of human agents I have in support From about 9000 to about 5000.”
Deeter: Anthropic will be valued over $1 trillion within three years
“I mean, we put our money where our mouth is. We've been a buyer. So over, and that's again, like we a year ago when we were buyers, we still wouldn't have didn't conceive of that.”
Ron Gabrisco predicts Databricks will become a trillion-dollar company
“I think Databricks is a once in a lifetime type company. It will be a trillion dollar company. Somebody in that data and AI space will become a trillion dollar company, and we're the innovation leaders. I think we can do it, right?”
Databricks has migrated eight of Snowflake's top 10 customers
“We've done 250. Snowflake, the Databricks migrations, eight of their top 10.”
Casado: OpenAI Lost Its Early Leads In Code, Image, And Video Generation
“OpenAI was the first to code, right? With GitHub Copilot. I mean, they provided the weights. As far as I know, and they lost that. And they were first to image with Dali, and they lost that. And they were the first to video with Sora. And as far as I can tell,…”
Edwin Chen says he wouldn't sell Surge for $100 billion
“No, I mean, I definitely wouldn't sell for thirty billion or even a hundred billion.”
Surge AI CEO: 2,000 human data points beat 10 million synthetic ones
“A lot of them tell us that even a thousand or a couple of thousand pieces of really high quality human data that we generated for them, it's actually been worth more than ten million pieces of synthetic data.”
Tenev: Robinhood enabled private stock tokenization without target company opt-in
“And so I think it's important for the tokenization mechanism to work. Without the opt-in of the companies that, that are being tokenized. And I think that's actually the innovation that we've been able to drive. Like we can, we figured out how to make this wor…”
Flanagan: 95% of B2B buying journeys will start in LLMs by 2027
“Google search is one of the best channels we had in B to B. 80% of all purchases started on Google search. It's predicted by 2027, 95% will start in LLM.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to adapt to AI will be poor or burdens on society
“Seriously, if you're not going to take the time to make yourself valuable, to embrace reality, you're doomed. I'm not going to help you. If you don't want to do this, you're either going to be poor or a burden on society.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to self-upgrade in the AI era are done
“But if not, fuck you. You're done. You're done. You're not done at Fiverr. You're done. Period. Because no one, there's not going to be demand for people that cannot upgrade themselves.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Lemkin: A Top VC Firm Will Give Sam Bankman-Fried $100M
“I don't think Rory or I would, I'll defer to Rory, but I think someone will fund him. He's smart as Rory, Rory said, like he showed the upside as well as the downside. I don't know if there's a lot of morality in the business. I think someone will give them ju…”
Lemkin: AI will replace half of sales and customer success teams
“Half of these sales teams will be gone in two years. Half of these sales and customer success teams will be gone in two years because they're mediocre. They'll be gone. They're all going to be laid off.”
Scott: AI scaling laws have not hit a limit yet
“I can very clearly see what we're doing now and like what we're doing next. And I don't see the limit to the scaling laws. Like if you're just sort of thinking about the raw capability of the models and like how well you can condition them to reason over incre…”
Scott: 95% of net new code will be AI-generated within five years
“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”
Scott: Frontier AI models diagnose health issues better than average GPs
“It is already the case that I think the frontier models are probably better like health diagnosticians than Your average GP is”
Hoggett: Most UK companies listing in the US perform poorly or delist
“In the last 10 years, only 20 UK companies have listed in the US that have raised over a hundred million. Of those, nine have already delisted, only four are trading up and the rest are trading down by over 80%.”
Krieger: DeepSeek release had almost no impact on Anthropic's go-to-market
“I got this question a bunch with deep seek when deep seek came out, like, all right, what does deep seek mean for you? And I think there's things that we learned from on the tech side, just looking at what they were doing, but from a go to market and place in …”
Oscar Pierre Faces a Potential Six-Year Prison Sentence Over Glovo's Labor Model
“And unfortunately, the, yeah, the country where we suffer from regulation the most is Spain. I'm not going to go into the details, but it's so extreme that I'm now in a criminal process for so the, yeah, the prosecutor, the general attorney accused me with six…”
Ramaswamy: ChatGPT Users Will Not Switch to DeepSeek
“You're not going to switch from ChatGPT to DeepSeq. It's a product. It's not a model.”
Pishevar: Fusion GPS gave a fake police report to Fast Company
“We found out an investigation that two weeks after I won the case founding Partner of Fusion GPS was sitting at a cafe in DC with a reporter from Fast Company with a memory stick and a fake police report from London about me. And they gave it to the reporter.”
Hoffman: Trump abused state power for personal gain in first term
“Even in the first administration, there was the, there were some abuses of instruments of state for personal gain, for personal power. And that is, I think anti the spirit of anything in democracy, anti the spirit of anything in American.”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Not Hire Software Engineers in 2025 Due to AI
“We're not adding any more software engineers next year because we have increased the productivity this year with AgentForce and with other AI technology that we're using for our engineering teams by more than 30% to the point where our engineering velocity is …”
Hommels: Germany and UK have only four days of ammunition left
“The ammunition is, is a cruel one, yeah. So, so the numbers I have from the military is like four days in Germany and UK and five in France, which is 25% more, but it doesn't make a difference.”
Hommels: US fighter jets require real-time remote US clearance to start
“Even if you buy US fighter jets, Yeah. So the way how it works is you are the owner. It stands somewhere in the hangar, and you want to, you know, start flying. You have to put it in the way where, where you want to fly, and then this data is sent to the US, a…”
Hommels: Europe cannot independently launch satellites after Ariane sold capacity
“Yeah, currently we either we get a slot in a SpaceX, yeah, with all the with all the restrictions that there are, or we have Ariane, but Ariane base lastly sold a hundred percent of the defense transport capacity to Amazon. So basically, as Europeans, we are, …”
Grimm predicts Israel will achieve near and total conquering of Gaza
“I think what we end up seeing is we end up seeing the, ah, ultimately kind of the near and total sort of conquering of Gaza,”
Grimm: Anduril will become the sixth defense prime alongside incumbents
“I don't see it as like Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, Raytheon, et cetera. We're going to take all of them down. I don't see that at all. I think it's going to be like, we're going to become the sixth prime alongside them and that there's still plenty, plenty, pl…”
McCabe: Very few tech industry figures are not voting for Trump
“And that's why everyone I talk to, it's very few people I talk to in technology who are not voting Trump at the moment. Very, very few. There are some people who are either triggered by Trump or they're they don't actually study a lot of these topics, but most…”
Chirls: 75% of 2020-2021 vintage VC funds won't return principal
“If you think about the twenty-twenty-one vintage, I think a one X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your money is, I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile. So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of th…”
Narayanan: AI model scaling cycles are ending
“We're not gonna have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles, of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before, and thereby more powerful.”
Maguire: Colombian and Venezuelan drug cartels report directly to Iran
“Like the cartels in Colombia and Venezuela basically report into Iran. Iran handles most of the money laundering for them and coordination processing of a lot of like the precursor chemicals, stuff like that.”
Shaun Maguire: Equal outcome equity is communism and will destroy the West
“And the definition of equity Or like the widely accepted definition is, is not creating equal opportunities. It's to have equal outcomes. That is insane. Like the idea that, that like, no matter what someone's work ethic is, or no matter like what their talent…”
San Diego Persian Jewish dentist was killed without media coverage
“A Persian Jewish dentist who my family knows in San Diego was literally stabbed to death by a former patient named Mohammed, like just randomly, like it was not reported and it was not reported as a hate crime, et cetera.”
Ohanian: NWSL will be bigger than MLS in 10 years
“That's why I think the NWSL will be bigger than the MLS in 10 years. Because we can tell a story of excellence in women's football in America using the NWSL. But not the MLS.”
Mollick: OpenAI's $3B revenue run rate is largely an accident
“I mean, they're incidentally making three billion dollar run rate this year, I think by like just accident, but there isn't like a, there isn't really a product there right now.”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will eventually look like a third-world region
“Western Europe is going to look like a third world.”
Motamedi: Current Series B VC vintage overall will not perform well
“Again, Harry, I come back to, unless you're betting that public market multiples are going to re-expand, or that the growth durability of these assets is a lot stronger than what we've seen in the past, the vintage writ large is not going to perform. It does n…”
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”