why aren't all 44 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Delangue: Using AI APIs Is Like Building Websites on Squarespace
“The analogy that I sometimes like is that on the early days of the web, you could use kind of like something that would Create a website for you, right? You could use the equivalent of a Squarespace or for weeks, and that would make you feel good, right? Becau…”
Opinion
Abrahami: Wix's Base44 Should Be Valued at $8 Billion Standalone
“Because if you look at peers, they're doing a vibe coding, the multipart is much higher than the one we would get for base to be a two billion, right? So basically on its own should probably be at eight billion.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Off-the-Shelf AI Customer Support Tools Do Not Work
“We actually tried not to build our own. You know, we tried, we tested many different things. It doesn't work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: Wix Is Losing Talent and the Industry Will Too
“Everybody gonna lose talent, and we are losing talent.”
Disclosure
Wix CMO Omer Shai says TikTok ads and sports endorsements have failed
“I think TikTok didn't work for me yet. I think that sports endorsement in some kind of way didn't work for me as I expected it to work.”
Disclosure
Wix CMO Omer Shai has never used customer lifetime value metrics
“I never used lifetime value.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Joining Wix tripled Base44's odds of success over VC funding
“It was either I raise a lot of money and a lot of funding, or I go and join Wix that basically triples my chances at actually building something special.”
Insight
Abrahami: Delayed CEO office arrival accelerates organizational maturity
“I think that it also created another thing which I like is that when you're a smaller company, people want the CEO to solve their problems, you know, like how do we mitigate between arguments and, but by the time I would arrive, most of the things would be sol…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Abrahami: I will not buy Wix or take it private
“I'm not buying the company, that I can tell you”
Insight
Abrahami: Leaders should focus on talent density over employee retention
“So, it's not about how do you prevent people from leaving. Right? And it's more a thing about how you make sure the organization keep being an organization where the vast majority are top talents, right?”
Assertion Supported
Abrahami: Wix core platform has vastly higher margins than Base44
“Wix is way, way, way, way, way more profitable, right? The cost of a Wix, generating Wix website is pretty much zero in comparison, and hosting pretty much zero in comparison. So, way more profitable on Wix than on Base-Four, and the margins are much better.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Wix Generates ~$400M Free Cash Flow and Invests ~$200M in Base44
“We make about four hundred million dollars a year in free cash flow, and we invest about 200 and something million into base 44.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Wix acquired Base44 when it had just one employee
“We've, ah, the M&A of Base-Forty-Four, right? Well, we bought a company with one person. I want to be clear, right? And then we put a lot of people from Wix into that, right?”
Opinion
Lemkin: Pre-AI website-building business of Wix and Squarespace is terminal
“I think it says the pre-AI business is terminal. That's what the public markets are saying, right? And they don't think that the AI play is enough to rescue it from terminology, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Shopify destroyed low-end e-commerce competitors like Wix and BigCommerce
“Shopify destroyed them all. There's no reason to use. This is another category where the low end was destroyed by Shopify, who amazingly went up market and down market successfully at the same time. And there's just, it's not worth it. You can't save enough mo…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Wix's core paid customer base fell 1.2% last year
“Well, the challenge is their core customer base, their core paid customers declined 1.2% last year.”
Assertion Supported
Wix paid $4.8M plus network commitments for its first Super Bowl ad
“4.8 at eight max spends. When you are buying a Super Bowl commercial, you are paying for the airtime of during the Super Bowl, an addition of max spends that you need to invest during the year on the network that have the right for the Super Bowl.”
Disclosure
Wix is increasing its SEO investment despite the rise of AI
“Not down, actually up. Because there are so many more things that need to be done today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wix marketing gets an unlimited budget if they maintain 11-month payback
“And we are saying, okay, we are comfortable and TRI of, let's say, 11 months or 12 months, something like that. And if I'm keeping the TRI on 11 months, I have unlimited budgets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Omer Shai says AI reduced marketing campaign iteration from months to days
“The timeframe to create something is getting shorter and shorter and shorter without hurting the results. So you still see some, you know, AI spots that you wish could be better. Especially with, when you implement human insight, but inform five months in a ye…”
Prediction Held up
Wix targets an eight-month payback period for its marketing spend
“That means I have a goal of TRI of eight months, and my job is to bring as many, as much money Collection for the company in the TROI that we agreed on.”
Insight
Omer Shai says brands make a mistake by omitting the product
“They're afraid to put the product in the center. There are so many emotions, or funny, and you know, in general, it's tricky to tell a story right now in the world, and not to hurt someone. You know, let's be honest, the world is so divided. That you're really…”
Assertion Supported
Jason Lemkin: Public software multiples jump sharply above 20% and 30% growth
“If you're growing less than 20% of a cherry pick basket, 5.1 X AR, Wix is lower. It's not in my basket. 20 to 30, 11.8 X AR. And then the 30% plus, which is Rubrik, Palantir and Figma, average 23.7 X AR, but Palantir and Rubrik push that up.”
Opinion
Rory O'Driscoll: AI-first startups have a growth edge over incumbents like Wix
“In the absence of data to the contrary, the prior is that the AI first company has the edge in terms of growth, so I'll go at lovable at the margin, but I'm a bit nervous at six billion, just to be clear.”
Disclosure
Fisher: Bessemer partnership gave outright negative feedback on my Wix deal
“In both cases, I received what would be politely say very lukewarm feedback from the partnership. In fact, in the case of Wix, it was outright negative feedback.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Wix uses an in-house trained AI model for website generation
“So on Wix, when you generate a website today, we are running a model that we trained. Okay. And it's faster, it's cheaper, but it's also better and it makes less errors.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: Wix stock trades on OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google news
“We're trading on others. Companies news. We're not trading on Wix news. We're trading mostly on what OpenAI or Antropic are saying, or Google is saying, right?”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce
“Wix slashes twenty-twenty-six guidance, cutting 20% of staff, a thousand employees, And cuts outlook by fifty million and revenue by twenty five million.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Wix added $100M in AI revenue via Base 44 acquisition
“And what they'done better than most public companies is hell with a great acquisition. They got a hundred million of AI revenue on top of it.”
Disclosure
Wix replaced its nine-year marketing measurement framework in three days
“I think eight to nine years, and I did some tests with my team that I saw different indication for something that I preached for nine years, and I changed the way that we are measuring everything in three days after I saw those indications.”
Prediction Held up
Wix and subsidiary Base44 will air two Super Bowl commercials in 2026
“We are going to do two Super Bowl spots this year. One is for Wix, and this is going to be the sixth one that we're doing for the amazing company that I'm part of it in the last 18 years. And in addition to that, we are going to have Super Bowl spots for base …”
Opinion
Omer Shai says LinkedIn and TikTok present enormous marketing arbitrage opportunities
“Also LinkedIn. I think LinkedIn potential is enormous. The arbitrage, again, is there. The targeting is not perfect as an other solution yet, but I believe that those two are having tons of opportunity for us.”
Prediction Held up
Wix's upcoming Super Bowl ad will feature the product without celebrities
“And in our spot this year, the product is going to be in the central. Ok, so we are not going to have celebrity. We are not going to have a lot of hoo-ha special. We are going to have a product. And you are going to see how other people using the product. It's…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Omer Shai predicts top marketing performers at Wix will be AI-first
“And this is the reason that the people that I think are going to be major key players, A players, A++ players in my team are going to be AI first people.”
Disclosure
Shlomo: Base44 was highly profitable before its acquisition by Wix
“And then, and like the business was very profitable.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Wix bought AI startup Base44 for $80 million
“Bought for eighty million using the same underlying technology, cloud code, right?”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Wix's acquisition of Base44 will reach $50M ARR this year
“The market would say that the Wix acquisition has worked very well and, you know, it's probably going to be fifty million in ARR by the end of the year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fisher: Wix was public for years before becoming widely known
“Wix, by the time it was known, it was already public for two, three years.”
Disclosure
Fisher: I was the first institutional investor in Wix and Fiverr
“The easy ones are Wix and Fiverr for me, because at the time, You know, I was the first institutional investor to come in both of those.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Wix is trading at 1x revenue with a $2.1B valuation
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and when I look at, like, a Wix today, trading at 2.1 billion on 2.1 billion of revenue, it's a great example where, like, there's obviously rationality at play, but it doesn't matter.”
Disclosure
Wix CEO Avishai Abrahami sleeps from 5 AM to 11:30 AM
“So I usually go to sleep at around five to six AM. And I'd wake up around 11, 11 30, and so that's been my routine. Pretty much it's that I remember myself.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Base44 Has 400 Employees Out of Wix's 3,500
“So best for the floor is around 400 people. Weeks in total is about including about 3500.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wix took years to build the marketing scale Base44 reached in months
“It took me, I think, six or seven years and weeks to do what we did in base in, like, months and a half, in two months.”
Disclosure
Wix was one of Monday.com's first three paying customers
“When we had, like, the initial version of the collaboration tool, we had about three or four paying customers. One of them was Wix.”