why aren't all 38 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Schneider: Customer success departments are make-believe organizations that shouldn't exist
“So we got rid of customer success because quite honestly, it was a, just a make believe organization that didn't need to exist.”
Opinion
Peets: Sales reps from ServiceNow cannot generate pipeline
“Why would you want to hire people from ServiceNow? They don't know how to do any pipeline generation.”
Disclosure
Lemkin refuses to buy public SaaS stocks with sub-par AI solutions
“No, I wouldn't buy any of them. I wouldn't buy, because I'm looking for products that are more than a 60% solution.”
Opinion
Zinman: Salesforce and ServiceNow markets are open to AI competitors
“The way I look at this today, service dominated by ServiceNow, CRM dominated by Salesforce is open market today.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Lemkin: Monday.com Will Churn Faster Than HubSpot and Salesforce
“The Mondays will churn faster than HubSpot, right? And HubSpot will churn faster than Salesforce. It's just delayed churn, right? That, that's the thing is, you know, ServiceNow takes you 10 years to get off that platform.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Churn rates have not spiked for core SaaS systems of record
“The churn rates haven't gone up. So there's no evidence that their revenue is any less durable. And there's this whole narrative about how it'd be replaced by Vibe coding, but I think, Jason, your post was great on why that's bullshit. Churn hasn't spiked for …”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Glean withholds AE commissions unless deployment success plans are completed
“I took a page out of Dave Schneider's book from ServiceNow and We're implementing a system where we're not paying AEs on their deals unless they have an approved deployment success plan filled out.”
Insight
Wang: Only trim stocks when valuations get 18 months ahead of fundamentals
“I tell my team, don't tell me if, you know, ServiceNow is 10% too expensive. If we have a three to five year investment hold period, you know, 10%, if you get six months ahead yourself in terms of the pricing, it's not going to impact your IRR that much. Where…”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Gartner claimed ITSM market was capped at $1B during ServiceNow's IPO
“During the IPO process, we had Gartner Show up at a lot of the investor pitches and say, the size of the ITSM market is gonna be capped out at a billion dollars. So, we don't see the growth potential for ServiceNow.”
Insight
Schneider: Enterprise software leaders should ignore low-end competitors and avoid moving down-market
“And what I realized is there's 10 competitors down market. Let them go beat the crap out of each other down there. They'll drive all the investor dollars into the toilet. And we'll just sit here and focus on what we do really, really well and own the market th…”
Opinion
Schneider: BMC and HP Software were 'dead already' during ServiceNow's 2011 rise
“The two companies we were competing with were BMC and HP Software. Two companies that quite honestly were dead already in my book. All they were trying to do is take money out of the revenue stream and drop to the bottom line. They weren't focused on the custo…”
Insight
Kerrest: Successful Enterprise Software Founders Are Industry Veterans, Not 20-Somethings
“I think if you look at successful enterprise software founders, whether it was Mark Benioff and Parker Harris, Salesforce, or whether it was Anil Bushri, And Dave Duffield at Workday or whether it was Fred Luddy at ServiceNow, these are all folks who did not s…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Dropbox lacks a significant enterprise customer base compared to incumbents
“Your right to win is predominantly in your existing customer base, and ServiceNow is a big one, and Salesforce has a big one, and brutally in the enterprise, Dropbox doesn't.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: AI model providers hit billions in run rate growing over 100%
“We're talking about billions of dollars of run rate growing in excess of a hundred percent year over year. I don't think we've ever seen that before, right? Like you talk about ServiceNow doing, you know, billions of dollars in ARR and growing, you know, 20, 3…”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: ServiceNow required new internal products to hit $100M in three years
“And so we actually launched four products at the same time in 2015, or 2016, I thought we were going to kill two of them, because for me to be viable, it had to be a hundred million in three years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: ServiceNow funded quarterly bonus pools based entirely on net new ACV
“In fact, up until recently, they had a bonus profile that was every quarter we would fund a bonus pool based on the company's achievement of net new ACV, which was new business minus any churn.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schneider: ServiceNow doubled street pricing and doubled revenue in his first quarter
“We basically doubled street price in that first quarter which helped us double the revenue for that first quarter.”
What-if
Grady: Sequoia missed a $30B gain by distributing ServiceNow stock early
“If we'd held ServiceNow through to today, it'd be a, I don't know, a thirty billion dollar gain, right? But we didn't. We distributed it a year or so after the IPO because it was the first billion dollar gain over time, not all at once, but it was within the f…”
Insight
Howie Liu: Software Companies Under $1B Revenue Are Still Upstarts
“I think any company sub one billion in revenue is, is is an upstart compared to the enterprise type, you know, whether you're Salesforce or service now, or obviously you know, the big thing companies, we're just still operating at a much smaller, leaner scale …”
Insight
Lemkin: Top SF founders under-invest in complex enterprise software
“There's not as much innovation in the true enterprise. Not B to B, not mid-market, but gnarly big problems. It's just not what all the kids in SF know, right? And so there's always going to be less investment with A and S tier teams solving gnarly enterprise p…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: 250 of Moveworks' 350 customers overlap with ServiceNow
“Just for the sake of numbers, it's 250 out of 350 customers that are ServiceNow customers, so quite a bit of overlap.”
Assertion Supported
Schneider hired 150 ServiceNow sales reps in 90 days to hit $100M
“I hired a 150 people in less than 90 days. And we did the hundred million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: ServiceNow enterprise deals reach up to $50 million annually
“We're talking 10, 25, fifty million dollars a year, sometimes for these transformational efforts.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider limited ServiceNow management reviews to three green and three red items
“When I led the review of any portion of ServiceNow or Data Domain, I started with the three things that were working, that were really green, and the three things that were red. If somebody wanted to help me on something in the red, be my guest. But if you wan…”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: ServiceNow's $1B HR product line originated from a sales engineer's idea
“That's probably a billion dollar product now, inside of ServiceNow, because we just listen to customers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ServiceNow saw 20-40% ACV expansion six months post-implementation
“So six months after the go-live of the system, we used to see 20 to 40% increase in ACV size.”
Assertion Partly supported
David Schneider: ServiceNow achieved a 98% plus renewal rate
“We were at 98% plus renewal rate, so I didn't have a churn problem.”
Assertion Partly supported
Grady: Sequoia invested $52M for 20% of ServiceNow at $260M valuation
“We invested fifty two million for 20%. And for anybody keeping track, that is two 60 post on twenty five million of ARR generating twenty million of cash.”
Assertion Contradicted
Grady: ServiceNow generated $20M free cash flow on $25M ARR in 2009
“The very last slide showed that they were generating twenty million of free cash flow. And that was on twenty five million of ARR because they were getting paid in advance for two and three year contracts.”
Assertion Contradicted
George: Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow command market cap in B2B
“In B to B, you know, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow, they command almost all the market cap in their respective markets.”
Assertion Supported
Element AI Failed and Was Acquired for Roughly Its Total Capital Raised
“There was a company called Element AI a few years ago in Canada, very ambitious company would try to do services like that. And they eventually failed. They were acquired by ServiceNow for, sort of, amounts are raised.”
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, it's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Assertion Supported
ServiceNow grew to $43B market cap by launching new products annually
“They went public in 2012, one hundred sixty million dollar in run rate. It was a single product company. Fast forward to today, they have five plus products. They committed to launching one to new products every year and new products are 30% of new business. A…”
Assertion Supported
ServiceNow Express priced at $10K-$15K vs $50K enterprise entry price
“We were selling it for 10 to 15,000 dollars versus 50,000 dollars at the entry price.”
Assertion Supported
ServiceNow had hundreds of customers using product off-label by 2015
“Turns out that by 2015, we had hundreds of customers using us in new ways.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: ServiceNow achieves a 99% Gross Retention Rate over three years
“At ServiceNow, the GRR is 99. They keep 99% of their customers over three years.”
Assertion Supported
Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps
“So in web two, if you take the top three clouds and you look at their market cap, so AWS, GCP, and Azure, It's about a 2.1 trillion dollar market cap just for the cloud businesses. And then if you take the top 100 publicly traded cloud companies, both on B to …”
Assertion Partly supported
David Schneider helped grow ServiceNow from $80M to $5B in revenue
“I spent 10 years at ServiceNow joining Frank Slootman again, who I had the privilege of working with at Data Domain. Into that company, which was about eighty million or so in size when I joined, and when I left it was five billion in revenue”