The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 25 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Nvidia will reach $10 trillion cumulative bookings in 5-7 years
“I think there's a high degree of confidence that most of the roads lead back to Nvidia reaching 10 trillion of cumulative, cumulative bookings over the next five to seven years.”
Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years
“I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth 10 trillion, but I can't predict the outcome.”
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Tunguz: Nvidia revenue concentration is 10x worse than Lucent during dot-com bubble
“So Nvidia, two customers for Nvidia represent more than 40% of revenues. Four percent represent more than 50% of revenues. I went back and looked at the dot-com era, the networking companies. NVIDIA is 10 times more concentrated in terms of revenue than Lucent…”
Lehmann: Screenless dedicated AI inference computers will be in every home
“I think when it comes to AI and personal AI, we may be at a moment in time where there is an opportunity for a new computer, a new type of computer that we may see in every home. A computer that runs your own personal AI on a chip that does not have to be as p…”
O'Driscoll alleges Poolside effectively cashed out via Nvidia product license
“A few weeks ago, Poolside effectively didn't, they would deny that they sold, but they sold a license for their product to NVIDIA, which was an open weight enterprise US focused model, and they, you know, the company still exists, but they cashed out quite a l…”
O'Driscoll: Probability of Nvidia Missing Near-Term Earnings Is Zero
“The demand for their product is such that they're entirely supply constrained, so the probability of a near-end miss is plus or minus zero, right?”
Reyes: Nvidia will likely hit a $10 trillion market cap within three years
“I think that there's a real serious chance that if we let SpaceX Be worth two or three trillion, then NVIDIA probably is worth 10. And so I think that the answer's likely yes.”
Frankel: Photonic Computing Will Disrupt or Be Acquired by Nvidia Within a Decade
“In my view, if you say in 10 years time, and I am not a thematic investor, but I am such a deep believer in
The status quo being changed always, and not, and like nothing stays the same.
I think photonic computing is coming down the line, and I think that's go…”
Angelopoulos: Enterprise AI adoption will 10X Nvidia reliably
“But I think the enterprise adoption of AI is going to be another 10 Xer for the industry. I think it'll 10 X NVIDIA very reliably.”
Angelopoulos: Nvidia is probably leading the race to a $10T valuation
“I think it's hard to say not NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA is probably in the lead there.”
O'Driscoll: Slowing Compute Demand Will Force Nvidia To Debook Prior Revenue
“And if that slows down and there's excess capacity, these deals will look horrible because you'll not just not be, if you're Nvidia, you'll not just be not growing quickly. You'll be debooking prior revenue. You'll be kind of taking, you know, you'll be taking…”
Foody: NVIDIA will lose its monopoly in five years but remain most valuable
“And so I would guess that in five years, it doesn't feel like Nvidia has quite the same monopoly, but that's okay, because even if they only have 30 or 40% market share in the largest market in the world by far, that is the world's most valuable company.”
O'Driscoll: Tech giants won't cut AI spending in 2026, keeping Nvidia sold out
“No one's going to blink on their investments for twenty-twenty-six. You actually know the next four quarters of NVIDIA announcement. You know the next four quarters of every one of the infrastructure, which is every single thing we can make. If you can count t…”
Lemkin: Nvidia will likely deprecate Groq's product line post-acquisition
“One, they could do, they could just deprecate the entire product line and do something brand new. They probably will.”
Lemkin: Custom chip competition will not threaten Nvidia's dominance in 2026
“You're a fool to invest against Nvidia for 2026. And I think you are arguably a fool to invest into Amazon in 20, 26 for a simple reason. Just a simple, I didn't say 20, 27 or 20, 28. It is not enough time for all this competition to come online. It is not eno…”
Ross: NVIDIA will retain 50%+ revenue share with 10% chip volume
“My prediction is that in five years, NVIDIA will still have over 50% of the revenue. However, they will have a minority of the chips sold. They might have, you know, minority share. They might have 51% of the revenue, and they might have 10% of the chips sold.”
Feldman: Cerebras inference has been the fastest platform since August 2024 launch
“And every day since August 26th when we launched Inference, our way has been the fastest way across a whole set of models tested by artificial analysis and others.”
Feldman: Nvidia's AI chip market share will fall to 50-60% in 5 years
“I think you know, in five years from now, NVIDIA is going to have 60. Somewhere between 50 and 60% of the market, right? I think right now they have approximately all of it. I think they will come down over time.”
Sim: Boldstart will never fund AI startups spending mostly on Nvidia
“You will never find both start, for example, finding companies where, you know, they're raising 20 or thirty million dollars, and two thirds of that money goes to NVIDIA.”
Lemkin: Nvidia will crush earnings in 2026 despite surging competitor attacks
“Nvidia's numbers are gonna crush this year, but we're gonna see all the daggers really coming out.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Four to five customers generate 70-80% of Nvidia's revenue
“The odd thing about the Nvidia business, unlike most other businesses, is four or five of their customers account for 80% of the revenue, something like that, 70, 80%.”