The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 505 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tavel: Frontier AI models will remain closed source unless Meta shifts market
“If you want a model that's on the frontier, that's going to be closed source. Now, look, every, as I mentioned, every month it feels different with what Meta's doing with Llama, that may actually fundamentally change the game. If Meta is willing to make that h…”
Lemieux: AI will unbloat tech teams and redistribute engineers to critical sectors
“I think companies are going to unbloat and we're going to distribute programmers, right? Like there's, we've got a global, you know, lack of procreation happening. We're going to have less and less people who can build technology where we need it. Like we need…”
Fast Hiring Dilutes Talent Density From A-Plus to A Players
“One thing, if you add more people, what happened is you, the A plus players becomes A and so on. And very fast, you need to get to grow very slowly so you can reach equilibriums very slowly and then keep The value of the entire team high. So do not hire very f…”
Zuckerberg Spent 80% of His Time at Facebook Outside Comfort Zone
“Mark once said in a Q and A in internal to Facebook that he said that he, and a lot of the reasons why we do that is because of how secure we are as people. And he would basically say that Something like, I don't know what exact number, but he said like, 80% o…”
Chris Cox Excelled at Scaling Facebook, Not Turnarounds
“I mean, Chris Cox, excellent exec. For going from, at Facebook, Kristoff is excellent at good to great. I don't think he was good at okay to bad to okay”
Lonsdale: Venture Investors in Great Tech Companies Should Hold Shares Longer
“The lesson was that I probably should have held everything for an extra 10 or 15 years, and I, and Peter Thiel had the same lesson, and I've learned a lot from Peter, and he obviously sold out of Facebook too soon, too”
Tisch: Small stakes in outlier companies outperform strict ownership targets
“Every VC's math works if you fund great companies. And so it's not about This, like, ownership threshold. If anybody owned one percent of Facebook, one percent of Uber.1% of Coinbase, your math works. Your math works really well, and it scales.”
Sim: Meta's acquisition of Kustomer would not be approved by regulators today
“Fuck no. No way. And by the way, it had nothing to do with anything other than they hated Zuckerberg, right?”
Facebook and Stripe Have Struggled to Expand Beyond Core Markets
“Whether it's like Facebook trying to enter the B to B space, whether it's Stripe trying to actually go from like developers and SME to finance teams in, in, in the enterprise. It's hard. And we actually haven't seen that much success.”
Seibert: Foundational AI models will inevitably be commoditized
“I certainly think we will, and this may not be a popular position, Obviously, opening eyes, charging ahead, sort of leading the way right now. I think the market forces at work mean there's just immense energy to have an open source equivalent. Meta appears to…”
Seibert: Large language models will inevitably become commoditized
“I certainly think we will. And this may not be a popular position. Obviously, opening eyes, charging ahead, sort of leading the way right now. I think the market forces at work I mean, there's just immense energy to have an open source equivalent. Meta appears…”
Grimshaw: AI applications will capture massive value and pull through infrastructure
“I think in the arc of time if it is a shift like the internet was in many ways the applications, Which might not look like an applications, right, in the way that we think of them, but might look more like, you know, this control center idea will have profound…”
Dash: TikTok's 2019 Ad Spend on Facebook and Snap Cannibalized Their Users
“The ad targeting at this point in 2019 had gotten so granular You could actually get to, like, a city level, a user demographic level, and TikTok leveraged all of that. And Facebook and Snap all benefited because they saw tons of money coming in in the form of…”
Lessin: The most obvious AI bets are Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft
“It's like, you want to bet on AI? Bet on Facebook. Bet on Amazon. Bet on Microsoft. It's so obvious.”
TikTok Is the Most Well-Executing Competitor Meta Has Ever Faced
“They're, I think they still are the most well-executing competitor I think we've ever faced. There's a couple others that are up there, but they're, I think, at the top of that.”
Threads Launch Targeted Fashion, Music, and Sports Over News or Tech
“We weren't going after tech, we weren't going after news, we weren't going after politics. We were focused on musicians. We're focused on fashion. We're focused on athletes. We're focused on beauty”
Meta Adopts Competitor-Pioneered Formats When They Become Industry Standards
“I think we're very good at optimizing things, and I think that we are willing to, when somebody pioneers a new format, to go and adopt that format if we think it's going to become an industry standard.”
Isford: Consumer growth expertise does not translate directly to B2B SaaS
“One mistake I've seen is assuming that best growth practices and experience in consumer will translate to SaaS and the other way around. That risk was taken on me when I started at Airtable. I actually came from Meta, and so I was jumping from consumer to SaaS…”
Douwe Kiela: The open-source AI ecosystem exists solely due to Meta's LLaMA
“This whole flourishing that you see right now of open source models that basically comes from Meta's generosity in giving Lama away for free. And if they hadn't done that, then you wouldn't see that.”
Douwe Kiela: Data size matters more than model size for AI performance
“It's just that data size matters even more than model size. And I think the Lama paper out of Meta really brilliantly showed this. Where if you train a smaller model on more data for longer, then you get a better model. So you get more bang for your buck if yo…”
Babayigit worked only two hours a day late in his Facebook career
“When I was working two hours a day towards the tail end of my career at Facebook. By all measures, it was supposed to be super comfortable and, you know, whatever. I was cruising, right? I was Barely doing any work at all.”
Incentives and Legal Fears Kept Google and Meta From Leading LLMs
“Nobody could predict that LLMs would be so useful and powerful before you train one at this scale. And who in the Google org chart had the incentive to invest five hundred million dollars and just to see this without any business benefit for the company? If yo…”
Mostaque: Meta holds the best training data for conversational AI
“But who is best for a chatbot? Who has the most data for a chatbot? Meta.”
Mostaque: Meta's pursuit of the metaverse was a complete waste
“Because the metaverse, obviously, is a complete waste.”
LeCun: DeepMind, Meta FAIR, and Cohere are best positioned for AGI
“In my opinion, the outfits that are best positioned for this are Claire from on one side and the new DeepMind now, which is, you know, DeepMind plus Google brain. There are a lot of people there who are interested in that question, and I think they are probabl…”
LeCun: Meta and Google lagged OpenAI due to risk, not tech
“It's just that they didn't have the pressure to produce new products, completely new products that had a lot of risk attached to them.”
Marcus: Regulators killed Libra because they distrusted Facebook leading internet money
“It was just really hard for regulators and others to accept that Facebook would be at the center of a protocol for money for the internet, and that's why we devolved so much power into this consortium that we didn't control, that we're just a member of, but th…”
Full Marketing Channel Attribution and Consistent CAC Metrics Are Impossible
“I agree. I think it's bullshit. I think it's a really, as, like, a, the expectation that it's going to be a consistent metric across channels, and having, like, a full view of everything that could be included in that is, is impossible. Like, it's not, Unlikel…”
Schultz: Facebook App Confusion Damaged WhatsApp During Privacy Policy Update
“When we did the WhatsApp privacy policy and said, now your data will be shared with Facebook Inc. For the limited amount of data, which is shared just for analytics purposes with all the constraints, because WhatsApp is hyper private. Even in that case, people…”
Schultz: Meta Achieved Higher Conversion and LTV by Lengthening User Flows
“There are flows where we made them longer. By giving people more targeting options where we got a higher conversion rate and a higher lifetime value. Whereas the growth standard is shorten the flow and take out steps.”
Schultz: Meta Moved Too Slowly on Product Rollouts and It Was My Fault
“Personally, I think we took too long, and if I went back and did it again, I would have moved a lot faster, which is weird for a meta executive to say, but I actually think we moved too slowly, and in many ways it was my fault.”
Schultz: Being Second to Market Works if You Out-Innovate Later
“Personally, I think generally it's okay to be second, and we're totally fine being second. Catching up on the basics, and then trying to out-innovate. Like step, step, step. Like launch, catch up, overtake with innovation. I think is a very, very good model. Y…”
Jordan: TikTok Buys Users at Scale Unlike Early Google or Facebook
“That's not a categorical rule, because TikTok buys users at monstrous scale. But, you know, Google really didn't buy many users, Facebook didn't buy many users, you know, tick, tick, tick, tick.”
Partovi: 'Move fast and break things' fails for multi-billion-dollar tech giants
“This works well, if you're small, the Facebook and you move fast and break things, you know, this idea of shoot first aim later that works well when the consequences are smaller or when you can undo the mistakes. Cause then you correct them. It doesn't work wh…”
Sahgal: Zynga spammed users with notifications until Facebook altered platform rules
“The worst habit I would say is we burnt out so many fucking channels. And what I mean by that is Facebook in the early days opened up notifications for the first time for developers. So you could, as a developer, just send literally hundreds of push notificati…”
Mignano: Social graphs are commoditized and inefficient for content distribution
“The social graph, as I said, is completely commoditized. Now, every social product that comes out can instantly have a social graph just by ingesting your contacts list, right? So you and I meet on the street somewhere. You say, Hey, Mike, what's your phone nu…”
Mignano: Meta has equal chance to displace TikTok within 24 months
“I think Meta has just as good a chance as them or anyone else to displace them Over the next couple of years. So I think this battle sort of will be won over the next, let's call it, 24 months.”
Mignano: Facebook's pivot to recommendation media creates room for new social giants
“And I think as a result, there's going to be sort of this vacuum of social experiences, true social experiences. And so I think if ever there was a time for a new startup to emerge, to create a great new groundbreaking social network or social experience, now …”
Gary Vee says post-iOS 14 ad pullbacks created organic arbitrage on Facebook
“I changed my mind on how big of a platform Facebook is. One of the coolest things for me right now is that I'm back into being obsessed with content on Facebook because the map of supply and demand of attention on it has flipped aggressively with iOS, 14 updat…”
Recent Facebook growth veterans often lack zero-to-one startup scaling experience
“Like if you were at Facebook in the last five years, you might not have learned how to do zero to one growth. You might've learned how to do a hundred to a million growth, much higher level.”
Liaw: Regulatory fear has chilled M&A for Meta, Google, Amazon, and Apple
“I think that probably the bigger challenge is for a lot of the biggest mega cap tech companies, fear of regulation and regulatory authority intervention is probably causing a lot of them to say, this is probably not worth our time, right? So it's kind of a fun…”
Startups must not build dedicated growth teams before finding product-market fit
“In the very, very early days, the first thing you need to know about having a growth team, I feel really strongly about this, you should not have a growth team set up the way Facebook does or conceptualize it that way until you have product market fit.”
Rob Schutz: Early-stage startups should not diversify channels prematurely
“Don't worry about diversifying. This is maybe controversial this day and age, but like, if Facebook is working for you, and your LTV to CAC is good, and your payback is good, crank it. Do it as much as you can, because That might not be available to you next w…”
Rachitsky: Big Tech PMs often fail when transitioning to startups
“And similarly, if your PM's been a PM at like Google or Facebook, they're just like really good at PMing at Google and Facebook. There's like a very specific way of building product at these big companies, and you shouldn't assume that they're going to be good…”
Devin Finzer: NFTs capture value for creators unlike rent-extracting Web2 social platforms
“I think long run, you know, this does open up the playing field for really anyone to like directly tap into a fan base or people who want to support them. So I think long-term you're talking about kind of brand new business models and the different model than …”
Wei: Facebook's Friending Push Caused Long-Term News Feed Context Collapse
“If you think about Facebook encouraging people to follow everyone under the sun, That had huge downstream consequences for them in the, you know, types of context collapse that they're still struggling to deal with newsfeed.”
Greylock's $500M Facebook valuation check faced intense internal and external criticism
“Facebook was very controversial, both internally and externally at Greylock when it was announced, because we invested at a five hundred million plus pre and wrote one of the biggest Checks that Gerlach had ever written at that time, and that was considered in…”