The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 46 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Coatue's $50K Retail Fund Cynically Rips Off Unsophisticated Investors
“I think this is cynical, ripping people off for 50 grand that don't know what they're getting themselves into.”
Suster: SoftBank, Tiger, Coatue, and Insight marked 60% of 2021-2022 unicorns
“Of the 1260% were marked by four firms, ok? SoftBank, Tiger, Coachu, and Insight.”
Ehrenberg: Tiger Global and Coatue face horrific portfolio markdowns ahead
“You know, their mark to market now, the next couple of years is going to be horrific. They're going to see huge markdowns on a huge swath of their companies, a bunch of stuff that they had counted on to go public isn't going to go public.”
Swisher: Winning modern software products grow far faster than traditional SaaS
“Now we exist in a world where if you have a product that the market likes, it is going to absolutely yank you into that market, right? It's not going to triple at the earliest stages. It is going to scream, right?”
Swisher: Deploying a $3B early-stage venture fund is exceptionally difficult
“If you are a venture fund that is staring down the barrel of having to deploy three billion dollars, I think that is hard because again, at the early stage, it is hard to capture disproportionate ownership in the few companies that actually generate all of tha…”
Swisher: Coatue raised its public market cap target to $50B-$100B
“We have this test internally, right? Where it used to be, five years ago, we called it the ten billion dollar public company test. Can this be a ten billion dollar plus public company? That bar has changed, right, in this new world because we are tackling much…”
Swisher: Probability of 10x returns increases in higher valuation bands
“And the counterintuitive thing is as you go up those bands, the percentage increases. So from a 10 to a hundred billion dollar valuation, I have a better shot at picking a 10 X, not like a better return, a 10 X than I did in the prior band.”
Swisher: Coatue avoids high-valuation pre-revenue startups without products
“I think this is a lesson that at least we've taken about ourselves from 2021 is that is not our business. The pre revenue company at a really high valuation with no product is not our business.”
O'Driscoll: Coatue is wrong about $500M ARR requirement for tech IPOs
“The comments about you have to be five hundred million, which is, I think, a KOTU comment, the comment that the window was going to shut a month ago. Both of them are wrong.”
O'Driscoll: Coatue's Retail VC Fund Will Sell by Offering AI Access
“Do I think it'll work and raise capital? Probably it will because the facts are there. The other The other PE vehicles have worked. And then let's get real. You know, at the end, it'll be packaged with some version of this is the only way you can get access to…”
Cahn: Joining Sequoia Did Not Increase Personal Deal Flow
“I think my deal flow basically didn't change at all.”
Katz: ClickHouse raised at a $2B valuation with zero revenue
“The Series B that Cotu and Altimeter jointly led at two billion felt expensive. We had no revenue. We had no product. We had control of an open source database. We had no customers. We had 15 employees.”
Swisher: Coatue evaluates valuation last for hyper-growth companies
“The framework that we use internally is we think about valuation. Everybody has to think about valuation, but when a company is growing exponentially, 10 X year and year, 50 X year and year, right? The things that we're seeing now, We think about valuation las…”
Swisher: Only top-tier private companies can access secondary or public liquidity
“And again, I think it's why, even if you're an early stage fund, you, this is a great style of investing and it's the type of company that you want to be in because it's the only type of company that can get access to liquidity, whether it's private or public.”
Swisher: Market size ranks above founder quality for $100B outcomes
“And I think that founder is tied to the market, you know, is tied to that market dynamic, and they're equally important, but market size is always first. A great founder in a small market with a wedge that is not easily able to expand, I think will build an in…”
Swisher: Private growth deals must pass Coatue's public-market investor scrutiny
“And so every investment I make, that is the rigor and the framework that I use is, someday, is my public counterpart going to want to own this stock over everything else in their book?”
Swisher: The most expensive private tech deals often yield top returns
“Oftentimes the most expensive deals can be the best ones in many ways.”
Swisher: Growth VCs Cannot Afford 'Spray and Pray' Capital Allocation
“And the answer is, from our view, you can't do this prey and prey at the early stage or the early growth stage. The reason why is you may be in the wrong horse, or you may be in the wrong market, and you may be investing your time wrong. Because there are very…”
Swisher: Coatue lost the Series A investment round for Harvey
“We had an early stage practice at the time that we were really involved with, and we did lose the A.”
Swisher: Justifying a $5B valuation requires a path to $5B revenue and $50B TAM
“You need to believe that someday you can get to five billion of revenue with 30% margin minimum growing really fast. So what does that mean? I better believe there's fifty billion of revenue to go get.”
Swisher: Investors must hold private market assets to access >30% growth
“And so to get growth, Something that's growing more than 30%, to get durability of that growth, to get access to the future, you have to own privates.”
Swisher: Coatue's investment failures stem from overestimating TAM, not poor execution
“We've just overestimated TAM and we've overestimated the ability for companies to launch multiple products and expand into new TAMs. We're usually not getting things wrong on the basis of metrics or the team being good or it wasn't growing fast enough.”
Swisher: Entry Price Matters in Growth Investing, But It Matters Least
“Ultimately, price always does matter, right? I think some folks will say, ah, price doesn't matter. I think price does matter, but I think it matters least.”
Swisher: 20 private companies generate 80% of global enterprise value
“If you look at the private markets today, take the whole private market ecosystem, 20 companies have generated 80% of the enterprise value. 20 companies, 80% of the enterprise value. Of all the private companies that exist in the world. And four companies, rig…”
Swisher: Coatue was the only private investor in both Snowflake and Databricks
“I think we were the only private investor that was Invested in Snowflake and Databricks when they were both private.”
Schneider: VCs must be founder-helpful, coaching founders with hard truths
“There is a difference, by the way, between founder friendly and founder helpful. And I think I have to walk the line between what I call founder friendly. I'm in your camp, but I'm gonna also tell you the truth. And I'm gonna get you ready for what's coming. A…”
Cahn: Coatue-Backed Battery Startup Built a $1B Factory in 12 Months
“I visited this company that's building long duration batteries that I had invested in at KOTU. They literally built a billion dollar factory in the last 12 months.”
Reses: Coatue Excels at Risk Management by Avoiding Emotional Attachments
“Kotu is an investor of mine, and I look at Philippe LaFont, Thomas LaFont, and the way that Kotu manages risk, and I am mesmerized by their ability to understand market dynamics and react to it in really smart ways. They aren't enamored by the companies that t…”
Swisher: Sequential Revenue and Retention Dynamics Are Key Software Indicators
“I think the things that you're going to want to look for, the leading indicators that you're going to want to look for are, is the revenue still continuing to grow sequentially? Is net new AR still continuing to climb? What's happening with the retention dynam…”
Swisher: Capital-intensive AI startups create stronger long-term durability
“In this world, businesses tend to be more capital intensive, right? They may be actually more durable at scale because of this. Makes it harder for the next entrant to come in. But the reality is they're harder to start. They take more capital. And that has le…”
Swisher: Public and Private Investing Require Fundamentally Different Skill Sets
“I actually think the public market skill set and the private market skill set is also different, and so having different folks that are focused on different things is really important because there are different parameters, different things that you see all da…”
Swisher: Coatue's growth test is wanting to re-invest at higher valuations
“I think the more simplistic way that we think about it, and again, this is not a hard and fast rule and it's more qualitative than anything is if I invest in this round of this price and the company executes, do I want to put more at a higher price? That's the…”
Swisher: AI's impact on software earnings remains dark for 3-9 months
“For the next three months, six months, nine months, we're not really going to know what's really happening in the world, right? Because things are happening so fast, and all of the earnings that happen are retroactive. Right? So you can only see into the past …”
Ribbit Capital, a16z, and Coatue co-lead Deel's $300M round
“So it's actually co-led by three three investors. The first one is Rubit Capital, which is our new investor. It's actually the first time that they invest into a deal. And maybe we'll talk about this after, but I've been I actually love the team there. I've be…”
Schneider: Coatue usually requires a $75M minimum check for growth board seats
“So I'm typically in a growth deal trying, if I'm gonna take a board seat, it's usually a seventy-five million dollar check. I'll break the rule and go to 50 sometimes, but mostly it's 75 minimum, with the goal of doing more over time before it goes public.”
Schneider: Key Coatue investment thesis targets repeat founders fixing past problems
“I love repeat founders on solving a similar problem, just with a better approach. You'll find that as a theme of mine when I make investments.”
Schneider: Coatue underwrites growth investments for a 5x to 10x return
“Yeah, we're usually in growth trying to underwrite Can it be, you know, five to 10 X kind of outcome?”
Coatue Prefers Continuous Follow-On Investments Over One-and-Done Round Participation
“It's continuous. It doesn't always mean we participate every round, right? So sometimes things get too expensive, and we'll make a choice that Our risk adjusted rate of return for that deal isn't something we want to pursue at the same level as we would have b…”
David Schneider admits Coatue overpaid for venture deals in 2021
“In 21, I definitely feel like sometimes that, That time and place, we probably paid too high a price.”
Schneider tests passed-on founders by offering continued help
“I tell people that, you know, hey, even if I don't make the investment, call me sometime. Like, and that's a test. I wanna know if they're thinking about me as a resource.”
Schneider: VCs uncover hidden startup flaws within three to six months
“Usually three to six months, you undercover all the warts that you didn't see, that they hid from you on the, in the diligence process.”
Schneider discounts startups relying on revenue from young tech companies
“If you're a business selling to other young technology companies, and that's your source of revenue, I'm gonna discount some of your future opportunity just from day one.”
Coatue walked away from a multi-billion dollar 2021 deal over price
“There was a deal that I got really excited about that when it came down to valuation, we were we did not hit the number that the company wanted, and I'm sure glad I missed it. So that was one that I probably dodged a bullet, because it was the height of 21, an…”
Cahn: Replicating 80% of 10 peers' distinct superpowers drives investor success
“I'm probably not gonna be as hundred percent as good as you if this is your superpower, but I'd like to be 80% as good at you at your superpower, and if I can be 80% as good as 10 people on each of their 10 superpowers, then I'll probably be pretty, pretty goo…”
Cahn: Focus on Software Customer Behavior Over Stated Churn Intentions
“So I think the lesson is you have to listen to what customers do. They continue to pay for the, especially expensive products. If people are paying for expensive products and telling you they're going to churn, you probably shouldn't listen to that. They're pa…”
Rathmann refused Zoom partner meetings with Bessemer and Coatue
“Byron would tell you, and I think Thomas from KOTU as well as, you know, as we were going through the partner meeting process, it was, you know, they're sending a zoom link over and saying, Hey, you know, just zoom in at this time. And that'll be that. And I s…”