The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: AI tools will equal human design quality within 18 months
“I would just be shocked if at some point in the next eight to 18 months, a Claude Code can't automatically make designs that are as elegant, as beautiful as a designer can. Because you already can in some custom LLMs for images, you can build epic images. I ju…”
Stebbings: Cursor could lose half its revenue this year to Claude Code
“I think there's a chance that Cursor loses half of their revenue this year with the cannibalization of them by claw code.”
Harry Stebbings says Claude Code cannibalized Cursor's business overnight
“Claude Code, Has cannibalized a lot of Cursor's business overnight and everyone's canceling Cursor.”
AI agents will evolve into completely autonomous software engineers
“My prediction would be agents that are like completely autonomous software engineers. Today, I think we're all using Tools like CloudCode or Codex to write code, but not as literal software engineers.”
Non-developer AI agent market is 10x larger than coding tools
“I think that's actually even bigger market that it's not even like think of it as like clock code multiplied by 10. That's the size of that market.”
Lemkin: Claude Code will aggressively attack Figma's business this year
“So I believe it will aggressively attack parts of Figma this year, even though they're key partners.”
Acharya: AI dev tools Cursor, Codex, and Claude Code will all grow
“The desire and demand for software, both to make it and to consume it, is dramatically more than the supply that we have today, and I think there is a developer and developer adjacent archetype for whom Cursor is going to be perfect, Codex as an app, Codex as …”
Shlomo: Developers will stick with Claude Code over superior models
“Like, even if now Gemini three comes out and it's a better model than Cloud and so on, then still there's gonna be a huge number of people staying with CloudCode because they're used to it and they built some things up the stack.”
O'Driscoll: AI providers must continuously increase CapEx to win
“Which goes to explain the urgency around CapEx for these companies, because their belief, and so far it's been correct, is that the only way to quote, if you're competing with Cloud Code, all you know is the only way to outperform is more reinforcement learnin…”
Stebbings: Decacorn CEOs spend aggressively on AI but switch easily
“The only interesting take I'll take is that I interview, honestly, three to four Dacacorn CEOs every week, and on this topic, two interesting elements, completely price insensitive as to how much they spend on Anthropic, and Claude Code in particular. I was th…”
Murdock: Apple is a massive customer of Claude Code
“You know, I know they're using Claude Code, huge, massive Claude Code customer, but how are they thinking about it?”
Masad: Late 2025 AI coding hype was driven by free token giveaways
“If you think about the hype Period that we got with, like, Claude code and codex towards the end of 25, early 26, a lot of it was driven by how much free tokens they were given out, how much, you know, every other day they're like, oh, it's 50% more tokens or …”
Tunguz: Theory Ventures distilled a 20B model to 1/50th size with 97% accuracy
“And then we've taken a twenty billion parameter model and said Claude Code teach this little model how to call tools. And we can get to 97, I mean, this is a venture capital firm. Yes, we have a great head of AI, but we're not a research lab, and we can get to…”
Reyes: Claude Code is raised in every single enterprise buyer conversation
“In terms of, I'd say relevance to the conversations when I'm talking to enterprise buyers, number one is Claude code. I think that it's just brought up in every single conversation.”
Levie: Public company CEOs spend weekends coding with Claude Code and Codex
“I have Slack channels and WhatsApp groups where people on the weekend are just like working with Cloud Code or Codex building stuff, and they're public company CEOs.”
Krieger: Internal dogfooding of Claude Code directly improved Claude 3.7 Sonnet
“As a really, you know, specific example with cloud code within, you know, a week of it being deployed internally, we had found a way in which one of the sort of tools that it has access to the model wasn't using as well as it could have, and that made its way …”