why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
Kohli predicts all 15-minute delivery startups will go bust
“A hundred percent. Because the cost of capital goes up. And when the cost of capital goes up, you can't invest into launching new cities. And you can't invest into what typically ends up being the J curve of this type of a business where you end up losing mone…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kohli: Secondary Deals for LP Fund Positions Commonly Clear at 40-50% Discounts
“So one LP will purchase another LP's position and the range of discount that we're seeing actually is anywhere from. But what's more common Is actually 40% or 50% from last round mark. And so you're talking about a pretty significant discount to last round val…”
Prediction Held up
Kohli: Market conditions do not support a rapid startup acquisition spree
“So I don't think the conditions are there for a rapid acquisition spree. Unless these are, like, rock bottom prices, and it's just like, you know, just, I mean, literally, you're getting an amazing deal, but I don't think that's gonna be good for employees or …”
Assertion Partly supported
Secondary VC fund positions are commonly selling at 40-50% discounts
“So one LP will purchase another LP's position and the range of discount that we're seeing actually is anywhere from. But what's more common Is actually 40% or 50% from last round mark. And so you're talking about a pretty significant discount to last round val…”
Assertion Partly supported
Startups can no longer raise successive leadless seed rounds
“So what you, what was happening in the heyday of 20, 21 and 20, 22 was that companies would just keep raising these successive rounds and we would see it like C, C plus C plus plus, right. It just keep going on and on and on and always just raising a little bi…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
AngelList expects to host a billion-dollar rolling fund very soon
“And we're actually seeing some rolling funds scale extremely quickly. And we do expect us to have the Equivalent of a billion dollar fund very, very soon under a rolling fund structure.”
Prediction Held up
ICOs and token marketplaces will not replace traditional venture capital firms
“When we talk about disruption, I'm very skeptical that where we're going to be in 10 years is, you know, everything is initial coin offerings, and there's no VCs, and, you know, there's just sort of marketplaces like AngelList and Bitcoin, right? Like, I don't…”
Prediction Held up
Teten: AngelList Will Expand Into Series A and Series B Rounds
“Absolutely.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: AngelList charges a 3.61% annual management fee for USVC fund
“So AngelList charges 3.61% a year to manage this fund, right?”
Assertion Supported
Time for venture funds to reach first close doubled to 6-7 months.
“We've definitely seen the time to first close has increased. It was three months in the boom times, and now it is six plus months. And when I say six plus months what I'm referring to is the timeline went from six and right now it's trending towards seven.”
Prediction Partly held up
Kohli: Distressed startup financings will surge in Q2 through Q4 2023
“And so what's happening is the cash out date was, has been pushed out for a lot of companies. And so our view is that these will start ticking up in Q two and then definitely Q three, Q four, because these startups, they have a brick wall, right?”
Assertion Supported
Kohli: Series B deal volume and valuations are down over 50%
“I mean, you're talking about deal volume in Series B down more than 50%, valuations down more than 50% Series A is also down Series C is basically Gone, right? Like, I mean, you don't really hear of many late stage deals getting done anymore. It's very, it's r…”
Assertion Supported
AngelList data shows startup funding market experiencing largest drop ever recorded
“And so we're actually in the. The depth of the bear market, if you will, for venture right now, and that spread between where it was in the boom times and the bad times is the farthest distance it's ever been on, on everything that we track.”
Assertion Supported
Venture market contraction between 2022 and 2023 is fastest on record
“It's incredibly fast and it's actually incredible. That, that distance is also incredibly large. So typically, when you have these dots that collect and it's reported every quarter, they're all kind of collect, you know, pretty close to each other, right? It's…”
Assertion Supported
Venture fund time to first close has doubled to 6-7 months
“We've definitely seen the time to first close has increased. It was three months in the boom times, and now it is six plus months. And when I say six plus months what I'm referring to is the timeline went from six and right now it's trending towards seven.”
Assertion Supported
Venture market activity spread reaches largest distance in AngelList tracking history
“And so we're actually in the depth of the bear market, if you will, for venture right now. And that spread between where it was in the boom times and the bad times is the farthest distance it's ever been on on everything that we track.”
Assertion Partly supported
AngelList data: Series B deal volume and valuations fell over 50%
“Deal volume in Series B down more than 50%. Valuations down more than 50%.”
Prediction Partly held up
Kaji: AngelList tourist investors will pull back during market downturns
“A lot of people investing on Angelus are tourist investors, or they're investing during a very good time, but if the market turns and if there is a contraction at some point, A lot of those investors are going to retract.”
Assertion Supported
Party rounds remain viable for $2M raises, but fail at $5M
“So two million, you can do a party round five million, it's much harder to do a party round now.”
Prediction Held up
AngelList will expand its financial platform to directly serve startups
“Our stack includes the LPs, the fund managers, and all the services needed, and tomorrow we're actually going to add startups to that as well.”
Assertion Supported
Naval Ravikant: AngelList processed 1,200 deals and raised hundreds of millions
“We have now run about 1200 deals through the AngelList platform, raised hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars for entrepreneurs”
Prediction Held up
Craig: Syndicate leads will use AngelList for Series A and B rounds
“A hundred percent. I think it, you know, it's not necessarily that AngelList moves into it, it's that the syndicate leads and other players will use AngelList to do pre-seed, to do seed, to do A, to do B.”
Assertion Supported
Moehring: CSC's $400M commitment is not funding for AngelList itself
“It's a fund that is being invested by CSC Upshot into syndicates. So this is not AngelList getting money as a funding round. This is not AngelList getting money to decide where to put. This is actually a very smart team of GPs that are investing directly in sy…”
Prediction Partly held up
Moehring: AngelList syndicates will lead Series A rounds and exit by 2021
“But yeah, I certainly see that something that's happening over the next five years, you know, which I think is a very interesting timeframe because five years will roughly be when we will likely see our first big exits. And that's really when the model will be…”
Assertion Partly supported
Butterfleye raised Jason Calacanis's first million-dollar AngelList syndicate
“At the time he hadn't done a million dollar syndicate, and we did a million dollar syndicate with him”
Assertion Supported
Scott, Tim Jackson, and Gil Dibner lead Europe's top AngelList syndicates
“Yes, I think between, well, Myself, Tim Jackson, I would say Gil Dibner are probably the three.”
Assertion Supported
Flight.vc operates 25 AngelList syndicates across verticals and regions
“Flight is just a umbrella name for the now 25 syndicates we run ranging from You know, the SaaS syndicate to the fintech syndicate to the IOT syndicate. We then branched out and launched syndicates in the UK and Germany and Israel and Canada”
Assertion Supported
Gil Penchina holds the record for the largest AngelList syndicate raise
“Gil also has the title of the largest raise for an AngelList syndicate, essentially turning himself into a one-man fund.”
Assertion Supported
In 2014, syndicates deployed $200M compared to $50B in traditional VC
“And the VC, every year on average, you have about fifty billion dollars of VC investments. Last year, I think the syndicated model total between all different sites like Founders Club and Angelus were like two hundred million.”
Assertion Partly supported
Staenberg: AngelList and OurCrowd each raised over $100M in 2014
“I think in the last year, both of them had over a hundred million dollars raised through their vehicles.”
Assertion Supported
Sahil Lavingia raised a $6M per year AngelList rolling fund
“Sahil's made waves, raising one of the first rolling funds on AngelList, with his being six million dollars per year”
Assertion Supported
Parker Thompson created the Startup L Jackson Twitter parody account
“Now, Parker is a partner at AngelList, And creator of popular Twitter parody account Startup L Jackson.”
Assertion Supported
Gil Penchina's early investments include PayPal, LinkedIn, and AngelList
“Some of Gil's investments include some pretty well-known companies that you might have heard of, including PayPal, LinkedIn, AngelList themselves, Indiegogo, and many, many more.”
Assertion Supported
Moehring: Few AngelList syndicates lead Series A rounds as of 2016
“A lot of syndicates are already investing in Series A rounds not a lot of them are leading Series A rounds at the moment.”
Assertion Supported
Scott's AngelList syndicate reaches over £350,000 in backing
“Doug has one of the largest angel-less syndicates in Europe, With over 350,000 pounds backing him now.”